Hi.
Bitcoin and Ethereum became highly correlated with the stock market after crypto ETFs appeared in the stock market. Consequently, U.S. Federal Reserve policy began to affect the crypto market as well. The U.S. Fed is now aggressively tightening policy (raising interest rates + balance sheet cuts). Markets are usually already factoring future scenarios into the price, but the scenario with another 0.75% rate hike at the next meeting has not been factored in yet, and the probability is high. Therefore the probability of another decline wave is still there, but they (smart money) might start to accumulate the position here.
In terms of the seasonality of the S&P 500 chart we follow the blue line (prnt.sc/hAi5QwFSexFX), May and June is the months when the market goes down. Then until the end of summer, there is a consolidation, another small wave of decline , and a reversal in early fall. This is about the scenario I expect for both the stock market and cryptos for next 3-5 months.
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The NLB-price (Never Look Back) chart is displayed here (prnt.sc/zxl7eRxYcFjY). Many believe that this chart is a good indication of the level of deviation of bitcoin price from its fair value. It is also referred to by some as a break-even mining indicator. Now the price has reached the lower deviation line. It happens very rarely, and the price is below this line for a short time.
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TA:
The price is in the discount zone. That is the place where the algorithms accumulate the positions. Last time the bitcoin correction was almost 90%. Right now, bitcoin's correction is 70% and the 90% level is about 12k.If there is one more decline wave (the probability is about 70/30 that it will happen), the price will go down to the area of 12-14k. This is a better place to buy. This is where I will accumulate the position. The divergence indicates that the bearish momentum is depleting. On the first bounce, the price could easily reach 26k.
*The analysis is purely the author's subjective opinion and is not a recommendation for action.
Bitcoin and Ethereum became highly correlated with the stock market after crypto ETFs appeared in the stock market. Consequently, U.S. Federal Reserve policy began to affect the crypto market as well. The U.S. Fed is now aggressively tightening policy (raising interest rates + balance sheet cuts). Markets are usually already factoring future scenarios into the price, but the scenario with another 0.75% rate hike at the next meeting has not been factored in yet, and the probability is high. Therefore the probability of another decline wave is still there, but they (smart money) might start to accumulate the position here.
In terms of the seasonality of the S&P 500 chart we follow the blue line (prnt.sc/hAi5QwFSexFX), May and June is the months when the market goes down. Then until the end of summer, there is a consolidation, another small wave of decline , and a reversal in early fall. This is about the scenario I expect for both the stock market and cryptos for next 3-5 months.
---
The NLB-price (Never Look Back) chart is displayed here (prnt.sc/zxl7eRxYcFjY). Many believe that this chart is a good indication of the level of deviation of bitcoin price from its fair value. It is also referred to by some as a break-even mining indicator. Now the price has reached the lower deviation line. It happens very rarely, and the price is below this line for a short time.
---
TA:
The price is in the discount zone. That is the place where the algorithms accumulate the positions. Last time the bitcoin correction was almost 90%. Right now, bitcoin's correction is 70% and the 90% level is about 12k.If there is one more decline wave (the probability is about 70/30 that it will happen), the price will go down to the area of 12-14k. This is a better place to buy. This is where I will accumulate the position. The divergence indicates that the bearish momentum is depleting. On the first bounce, the price could easily reach 26k.
*The analysis is purely the author's subjective opinion and is not a recommendation for action.