cheesywedges

Study of Elliot Wave on BTCUSDT 1D

Long
BINANCE:BTCUSDT   Bitcoin / TetherUS
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161
I commented previously we are in the Wave 5 of an Elliot Wave . Currently, we are seeing a micro Wave and we are at Wave 3. We will be heading towards 58k in a weeks time and retrace to 54k before hitting 64k . As you can see, the micro Wave 5 (blue bubble) and the bigger Wave 5 (green bubble) are very close
Comment: If you wonder how Wave 3 and 4 are identified, their length is calculated using the fib time zone, extended from Wave 1 - 2. This goes the same for Wave 4. And from this observation Wave 4 rule on the alteration where if Wave 2 is steep, Wave 4 should be flat, vice versa.
Comment: Candles have been lining up along the major Wave 5. The micro Wave 3 candle just broke through the 1.618. 1.618 on Wave 3 is the general rule but it can be easily exceeded and still lies within the Elliot Theory. Continue to observe until it hits a bear candle for the pullback to Wave 4.
Comment: If you draw a fib from Wave 2 (5th Mar) to Wave 3 (I've reset on my chart to 13th Mar), the current wave 4 should not exceed 0.382 pullback which sits at 56k
Comment: By time this Daily candle closes as 3 white soldiers, we will break ath again.
Comment: Looking at the chart and indicator, 60k looks like it is due in couple of days. We just bounced off the support on the parallel channel and the candle is sitting on top of the orange line nicely

Comments

retraced back exactly from where you calculated
+8 Reply
@nanhe, Thanks. it would not be surprising if the candle cruise below the line. We already see 6 continuous green candles which could be overbought, but the volume shows an increased buying.
+2 Reply
My analysis tell me we could be in n a wave C zigzag down. This consolidation will be wave 4 before continuing down to around 51k before a pop upwards, ultimately the bottom being around 40k, to test the previous cup and handle breakout.
+6 Reply
@ell0070 correct, all signs bearish
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we've actually hit a price target for an irregular flat, check retracement from 58 to 61

now it seems as if a running expanding triangle is playing out, this could be the start of impulse 5 :)
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ell0070 son-of-saylor
@son-of-saylor, was just looking at it. Think we could retrace a bit higher. Looks like 5 waves up, so could be a wave 4 zigzag as wave 2 looks more like a flat correction.
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@ell0070, wave 4 started at 42k correction, move from abc was first impulse - alt abcd confirms this

Drop from 58k was standard 3-swing, 1.236 flat formation at 62k was caused by third impulse.

Currently we are going through the final impulse which cannot retrace above 59487 without making impulse 3 the smallest

For evidence on wave 4 & wave 3, check rsi & cmf - buying pressure & momentum have actually been diverging since 23k

Right now price action is dead with bearish divergences on minutely time frames indicating we are still in wave C, however we have hit the 0.68 price target on the flat (if it is a running)

Current price action suggests buyers are not happy with price, and sluggishness is how elliott describes wave 5 themes (same traders moving the price)
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Nice...keep sharing and helping
+4 Reply
@MAyaz123, Appreciate the reply
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@cheesywedges do you see the bearish harmonic butterfly forming from the end of wave 3 => wave 4 => now?

great work btw, provided a lot of clarification
+3 Reply
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