Is it possible that since the June collapse Bitcoin has been forming a descending triangle?
Could we see a repeat of November 2018 when the price of Bitcoin finally broke down from the descending triangle it was forming and dropped about 50 percent?
That drop ultimately formed the bear market bottom.
How strange would it be to see a similar scenario play out in this bear market? The target price that I have calculated from the descending triangle is just under $9600, which would be a decline of about 86% from the peak on November 10th, 2021. That would be almost identical to the declines we saw in the last two bear markets.
I want to say that this is my worst-case scenario, and I feel the only way this would play out is if macroeconomic issues significantly worsened. If Inflation unexpectedly jumps higher again, forcing the FED to substantially increase the next rate hike to 100 BPS or even 125 BPS. This would undoubtedly shock investors and most likely lead to the sell-off in the stock market getting substantially worse.
Because Bitcoin has been highly correlated to the stock market, that shock would lead to a massive sell-off of Bitcoin and all high-risk assets.
Obviously, this is all just conjecture on my part, and as I said, this is a worst-case scenario. I have also published an idea about how the June 18th low at around $17,600 could be the bear market bottom.
I am trying to keep an open mind to all possibilities. It is also highly likely that the bear market bottom could be somewhere between the June 18th low and this worst-case low.
Regardless of what happens, I remain incredibly bullish on Bitcoin long-term. A part of me would not even mind seeing this play out, as it would lead to an incredible buying opportunity.
On the other hand, as I said, it would take a severe macroeconomic event to trigger this, and it might be better if we avoid going down that road.
Could we see a repeat of November 2018 when the price of Bitcoin finally broke down from the descending triangle it was forming and dropped about 50 percent?
That drop ultimately formed the bear market bottom.
How strange would it be to see a similar scenario play out in this bear market? The target price that I have calculated from the descending triangle is just under $9600, which would be a decline of about 86% from the peak on November 10th, 2021. That would be almost identical to the declines we saw in the last two bear markets.
I want to say that this is my worst-case scenario, and I feel the only way this would play out is if macroeconomic issues significantly worsened. If Inflation unexpectedly jumps higher again, forcing the FED to substantially increase the next rate hike to 100 BPS or even 125 BPS. This would undoubtedly shock investors and most likely lead to the sell-off in the stock market getting substantially worse.
Because Bitcoin has been highly correlated to the stock market, that shock would lead to a massive sell-off of Bitcoin and all high-risk assets.
Obviously, this is all just conjecture on my part, and as I said, this is a worst-case scenario. I have also published an idea about how the June 18th low at around $17,600 could be the bear market bottom.
I am trying to keep an open mind to all possibilities. It is also highly likely that the bear market bottom could be somewhere between the June 18th low and this worst-case low.
Regardless of what happens, I remain incredibly bullish on Bitcoin long-term. A part of me would not even mind seeing this play out, as it would lead to an incredible buying opportunity.
On the other hand, as I said, it would take a severe macroeconomic event to trigger this, and it might be better if we avoid going down that road.