On my previous idea, I stated that I might turn bullish if BTC breaks and closes steady above 22K, and while that might be what's gonna happen, I really think we all should watch out.
Volume keeps declining
If BTC breaks above 22K with volume like Sep 27th or even higher, then we can safely assume that the trend will continue for awhile. Sadly the data shows that the volume keeps declining (bearish divergence). If BTC breaks above with such volume, I'm afraid it's gonna be a bull trap, a nasty false breakout (if current macros don't get any better).
Price manipulation
As we all know, the bulls have defended $17.5K - $18.5K zone quite well, and it has proven to be the bulls strongest last bastion over months, as the bears have never succeeded bringing the price lower than June lowest. So what can the bears do? Let the bulls have their way up, then bring max pain for them. Should the price rockets above $22K, or even breaking through 200 EMA and strong resistance at $25K, IF the price goes down again after that because of bad macro news/major fundamental key events, the bears will have a strong momentum downwards, strong enough to break bulls strong support that's been holding out for months, and this time IT'S GONNA BREAK DOWN.
FED Decision is the key
If you really want to play it safe, use DCA for coins you think are good for long term hodling, and/or wait after the decision, but true long term price action/trend can only be seen after Nov 2nd, along with how the macros holding up then.
Volume keeps declining
If BTC breaks above 22K with volume like Sep 27th or even higher, then we can safely assume that the trend will continue for awhile. Sadly the data shows that the volume keeps declining (bearish divergence). If BTC breaks above with such volume, I'm afraid it's gonna be a bull trap, a nasty false breakout (if current macros don't get any better).
Price manipulation
As we all know, the bulls have defended $17.5K - $18.5K zone quite well, and it has proven to be the bulls strongest last bastion over months, as the bears have never succeeded bringing the price lower than June lowest. So what can the bears do? Let the bulls have their way up, then bring max pain for them. Should the price rockets above $22K, or even breaking through 200 EMA and strong resistance at $25K, IF the price goes down again after that because of bad macro news/major fundamental key events, the bears will have a strong momentum downwards, strong enough to break bulls strong support that's been holding out for months, and this time IT'S GONNA BREAK DOWN.
FED Decision is the key
If you really want to play it safe, use DCA for coins you think are good for long term hodling, and/or wait after the decision, but true long term price action/trend can only be seen after Nov 2nd, along with how the macros holding up then.
Comment:
BTC failed to break and close above 22K, the bears trapped the bulls into thinking that bear market is over, rally the price to $21K level, then dropping it for max pain. As I mentioned above, they need the impulse to break the strong support, and it indeed broke and formed a new lower low. There will be a relief rally, but unless BTC manages to break and close above 22K, there's no need to be super bullish. We are still in a bear market, stick to the macros.
NOT A FINANCIAL ADVICE
DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH
YOUR MONEY IS YOUR OWN RESPONSIBILITY
DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH
YOUR MONEY IS YOUR OWN RESPONSIBILITY