Yeah I'm still bullish... we mostly are, right?
I took the chart of my last post with the bullrun path, read the related post for more information about that one.
Today I wanted to write because since days the thing feels strange.... for you too?
I have my long in profit and am waiting for the breakout. But nothing.
And I believe that it's the same for a lot of people. Though we're bullish and greedy things start to get BORING. And that's the danger I see. If a lot of people feel bored and start thinking that they should take some minor profits and reopen from lower the show begins.
The whole market is build on futures atm, low spot activity.
If longs start closing the price falls. If the price falls - more start taking small profits because it looks like their wish comes true to open lower. First SLs get triggered and it falls further. In that market the scenario of a cascade gets more and more likely.
Then it all depends on the last bulls. If they refuse to buy it up we're facing a capitulation event much faster than the whole way up took. Yes, that's the worst scenario... the black swan.
This is not even considering an event like a "coinbase fail", where all ETFs depend on...
This is simply a reminder, not bullish, not bearish.
Don't forget thins like "be fearful when others are greedy". Always have BOTH scenarios in mind when opening positions and placing SLs.
I took the chart of my last post with the bullrun path, read the related post for more information about that one.
Today I wanted to write because since days the thing feels strange.... for you too?
I have my long in profit and am waiting for the breakout. But nothing.
And I believe that it's the same for a lot of people. Though we're bullish and greedy things start to get BORING. And that's the danger I see. If a lot of people feel bored and start thinking that they should take some minor profits and reopen from lower the show begins.
The whole market is build on futures atm, low spot activity.
If longs start closing the price falls. If the price falls - more start taking small profits because it looks like their wish comes true to open lower. First SLs get triggered and it falls further. In that market the scenario of a cascade gets more and more likely.
Then it all depends on the last bulls. If they refuse to buy it up we're facing a capitulation event much faster than the whole way up took. Yes, that's the worst scenario... the black swan.
This is not even considering an event like a "coinbase fail", where all ETFs depend on...
This is simply a reminder, not bullish, not bearish.
Don't forget thins like "be fearful when others are greedy". Always have BOTH scenarios in mind when opening positions and placing SLs.
