e911

POST-ETF / PRE-HALVING BTC

Long
BINANCE:BTCUSDT   Bitcoin / TetherUS
Bitcoin has already saw green light around ETF and whole market moved further just because of bitcoin.

Altcoins corrected. But I’m kinda in this indecision as to what should I do and how should I perform risk management.

From the first sight - sure. BTC is the king. It definitely won’t go anywhere.

Lost of people expect it to correct as massive news event played out. We see reports or I should say expectations that bitcoin will go back to $30k
Well. This is possible. As I’m not excluding this scenario. But at the same time I can’t say it will go down that far.

Market is overall bullish and based on the expectations of halving event and that economy at some point will perform better and money gonna be more readily available we might expect to see much better price.

All who was considering exposure to bitcoin already got into it. It’ll take few more days or maybe next week to have a clear picture if demand for 46k is still there. As my assumption is that everyone who wanted to get into BTC already got into it.
We had so much news coverage that only blind and def missed.

Now it’ll be more financial institutions who will incorporate it into its portfolio. But I’m not sure if they will rush and buy at 46k. Probably there are way more sellers than buyers at this price. And thus it’ll bring selling volume. This is supporting case for some correction.

Now that spot ETF is approved it’s time to change hands. But how deep can it correct ?
Halving is just 90 days away. And ETF saga started about 90 days ago. So this is very bullish case for bitcoin and all who wants to enter the market pre-halving. Because all analysis shows that after halving price skyrockets, so now even at 46k is not that bad to enter. As you can still triple the money.

Also how much selling pressure there might be ?
Lost of analyst were saying that ETF approval is the only reason for such an active price action.
But let’s look around. Holders will not sell before halving. Miners might also not be motivated to sell now. Price is good. But halving is ahead. They would want to accumulate as many BTC as possible.

From the cycle bottom we can see that BTC corrected to 0.618 fib. Approximately 30% of the move.

Current move looks very similar in size. And if it’ll correct to the same fib level we will see 40k as realistic correction point.

Initial trendline support is at 33-36k as it is upward sloping trendline. And in general we should look for more FOMO and next bullish catalyst.

My thoughts are as follows. Bitcoin made a higher high. ETH made a higher high.

So it’s possible that other crypto’s will make higher highs.

The case for this is that money gonna flow from BTC to other cryptos during this correction phase.
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