WARNING: THIS IS A 2022 LONG-TERM TARGET! Do not take this as advice to buy on micro-charts, but more for the longer-term investor
BTC's Bull Market target for 2022 does show a very potential $109k target... timing is unpredictable but my best guess would be by Q2 2022 or into 2023.... but first there is a strong potential in the short term for there to be a fakeout to the downside of the H&S shoulder that every bear is drawing on their charts atm. The reason a long-term bear view is implausible now is the money flow... there is simply too much institutional money from the US flowing into crypto. Europeans and the rest of the world who don't really understand how much wealth there is in America, will be found liquidated on the short side. Just to give you an idea of the amount of wealth created in the US. 9 out of 10 of the largest publicly traded companies in the world are from the US. The 10th largest company by market cap is Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM). There is one company that is an outlier and one I don't include in the calc b/c it's mostly owned by the government of Saudi Arabia - Saudi Aramco. It only has a very small percentage of its share float publicly traded.
Lastly, the US's share of global millionaires is 40% (there are approximately 22 million US millionaires). There are more millionaires in the US than the population of most countries in Europe. The US is only 4% of the entire global population but 10x the share of millionaires. The immense interest coming into crypto in 2022 from US wealth is very high are we're at the beginning of the ballgame. The amount of money in US IRAs and 401ks is $25 Trillion dollars... We are still in early days and there will be a major shift in 2022 toward major US Pension funds that will get into crypto. The fact Ken Griffin, head of one of the largest Hedge Funds in the world is raising $1.5 Billion to invest in crypto is a VERY big deal and means that major flow of funds from pensions will follow in the coming months.
BTC Short-term Pain
I do think that the death cross of the 50 crossing under the 200 DMA in the coming days could lead to an approximately 10% daily decline in BTC's price down to $37.3k which will flush out the high amount of leverage and will be the low for this cycle. This decline to $37.3k will create many bears and will in their minds solidify the ridiculous doomsday H&S target they are all drawing down to sub $20k prices - this will trap a lot of bears and they will find out how wrong they are in the coming days/weeks.
BTC's Bull Market target for 2022 does show a very potential $109k target... timing is unpredictable but my best guess would be by Q2 2022 or into 2023.... but first there is a strong potential in the short term for there to be a fakeout to the downside of the H&S shoulder that every bear is drawing on their charts atm. The reason a long-term bear view is implausible now is the money flow... there is simply too much institutional money from the US flowing into crypto. Europeans and the rest of the world who don't really understand how much wealth there is in America, will be found liquidated on the short side. Just to give you an idea of the amount of wealth created in the US. 9 out of 10 of the largest publicly traded companies in the world are from the US. The 10th largest company by market cap is Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM). There is one company that is an outlier and one I don't include in the calc b/c it's mostly owned by the government of Saudi Arabia - Saudi Aramco. It only has a very small percentage of its share float publicly traded.
Lastly, the US's share of global millionaires is 40% (there are approximately 22 million US millionaires). There are more millionaires in the US than the population of most countries in Europe. The US is only 4% of the entire global population but 10x the share of millionaires. The immense interest coming into crypto in 2022 from US wealth is very high are we're at the beginning of the ballgame. The amount of money in US IRAs and 401ks is $25 Trillion dollars... We are still in early days and there will be a major shift in 2022 toward major US Pension funds that will get into crypto. The fact Ken Griffin, head of one of the largest Hedge Funds in the world is raising $1.5 Billion to invest in crypto is a VERY big deal and means that major flow of funds from pensions will follow in the coming months.
BTC Short-term Pain
I do think that the death cross of the 50 crossing under the 200 DMA in the coming days could lead to an approximately 10% daily decline in BTC's price down to $37.3k which will flush out the high amount of leverage and will be the low for this cycle. This decline to $37.3k will create many bears and will in their minds solidify the ridiculous doomsday H&S target they are all drawing down to sub $20k prices - this will trap a lot of bears and they will find out how wrong they are in the coming days/weeks.
Comment:
The data I'm using for an approximate 10-15% decline from the death cross is the last time this happened in June, BTC fell about 10% 2 days after the death cross occurred. It's not certain it would happen this time, but the market structure is remarkably similar and there is a VERY important price level that matches this downside target that MUST hold to sustain nearer term bull market moves. These important daily levels act like magnets when market is trending in one direction.