BTC: up or down, probably

Just looking at a few scenarios going forward here.

No sweep of range low so far, except on the CME chart.

One thing we see is that both range high and range low have been tested 3 times without either breaking or being swept. The more often support or resistance get tagged, the weaker it becomes, so it's likely that the next tap will at least give us a proper sweep, if not a breakout/down.

The easiest play would be if we sweep the lows and reclaim with strength.

The breakout scenario is the hardest to play, unless you are positioned from way below.

Breakdown play is easier: there is a big gap below us, so it's pretty clear where the next support levels are. If you can see anywhere between 45-52k, I think you can position for the easiest upside in a while.

Another scenario is that we just keep ranging here for a while. Bitcoin halving has historically been a precursor of big rallies, but only after a period of consolidation and chop.

My guess is the latter, but I try to plan and be prepared for either of these scenarios

Happy halving (soon)!

H&M