This morning I was in the middle of writing an update on my BTC views; when the twitter announcement came out the BFX had to halt deposits. Here is what I was ABOUT to say (in short):
---
Hey, BTC has refused to traceback to the initial decline; and in fact has refused on 3 occasions to retrace to even 50% of any previous in the past 4 tries. Combined with the squeeze at the down channel; and an attempt to break out once already; this baby is turning back to Bull. Thank heavens!
---
Man; just as I was opening my longs and drafting my thoughts; the Tweet came out and it exploded out of the gate (yeah; I had opened longs about 4 hours before that because of the evidence). Everyone started screaming (it's a run on BFX to get out!!), and I tend to agree... initially. But listen; the signs were in place for 5 days that a lot of effort was being put in to resist this downtrend (see my article about returning to the critical red channel). So are truly out, or is this just a BFX exit? Here is where my head is at:
Generally; NO, this is not solely about BFX, but it IS responsible for this rediculous mega pump that now has the exchanges arbitraged to the extreme. BUT, the other exchanges are starting to close the gap. Arbitrage will eventually bring them all back together, but where will they be? My hunch, just a touch below the midline of this up channel. But, we will see. But all BFX issues aside; we are ON an up, not a DOWN and that..... my friends.... is beyond BFX's control.
Lastly; here is my thoughts on all of the 'Doom and Gloom' sayers of BFX....
1) BTC is NOT the only means by which to exit BFX... Dash and LTC are both just as viable solutions. LTC is priced correctly at the moment and DASH is also on par with stability in play. If the goal is to JUST get away from BFX (as opposed to selecting a NEW exchange that requires compatibility), either of those are good options without getting raked over the coals on overpriced (for the timeframe) BTC.
2) BFX needs to get its shit together. Banks are not going to risk their own standing to an exchange that hasn't seeked any kind of licensing (and in fact has been fined). International banks will cower to US banks (for obvious reasons) and I suspect that BFX is going to be looking for new banks for a while.
So, in closing... Yeah, this is going to get messy for a bit but BTC is stronger that just BFX. No exchange (with the exception of MtGox but BTC was young and MTG was really the only option) has actually managed to cripple BTC with all of the crap in the past. It has, and will continue to march to its own beat.
---
Hey, BTC has refused to traceback to the initial decline; and in fact has refused on 3 occasions to retrace to even 50% of any previous in the past 4 tries. Combined with the squeeze at the down channel; and an attempt to break out once already; this baby is turning back to Bull. Thank heavens!
---
Man; just as I was opening my longs and drafting my thoughts; the Tweet came out and it exploded out of the gate (yeah; I had opened longs about 4 hours before that because of the evidence). Everyone started screaming (it's a run on BFX to get out!!), and I tend to agree... initially. But listen; the signs were in place for 5 days that a lot of effort was being put in to resist this downtrend (see my article about returning to the critical red channel). So are truly out, or is this just a BFX exit? Here is where my head is at:
Generally; NO, this is not solely about BFX, but it IS responsible for this rediculous mega pump that now has the exchanges arbitraged to the extreme. BUT, the other exchanges are starting to close the gap. Arbitrage will eventually bring them all back together, but where will they be? My hunch, just a touch below the midline of this up channel. But, we will see. But all BFX issues aside; we are ON an up, not a DOWN and that..... my friends.... is beyond BFX's control.
Lastly; here is my thoughts on all of the 'Doom and Gloom' sayers of BFX....
1) BTC is NOT the only means by which to exit BFX... Dash and LTC are both just as viable solutions. LTC is priced correctly at the moment and DASH is also on par with stability in play. If the goal is to JUST get away from BFX (as opposed to selecting a NEW exchange that requires compatibility), either of those are good options without getting raked over the coals on overpriced (for the timeframe) BTC.
2) BFX needs to get its shit together. Banks are not going to risk their own standing to an exchange that hasn't seeked any kind of licensing (and in fact has been fined). International banks will cower to US banks (for obvious reasons) and I suspect that BFX is going to be looking for new banks for a while.
So, in closing... Yeah, this is going to get messy for a bit but BTC is stronger that just BFX. No exchange (with the exception of MtGox but BTC was young and MTG was really the only option) has actually managed to cripple BTC with all of the crap in the past. It has, and will continue to march to its own beat.
