Looking at the past doesn't guarantee certainty for the future, but it can give us a good idea of what might happen. Looking into the price action of the last 8 years of Bitcoin's history, we can see that the performance is not that great. The price action in September has been either sideways, or sideways with some downwards momentum.
Comparing the historical data to predict the future, it's possible that mean reversion strategies could yield good performance while challenging the trend following strategies. On the other hand, in the past, we don't see high values of market noise which is great for breakout strategies.
If we dig deeper into the lower time-frames there are clear trends and smaller breakouts. (This would be another opportunity for lower time frame strategies).
September will be an outstanding test for the different strategies because market cycles, so far, have shown different behavior than in prior years.
Pre-Sep 2021 Insights:
BTC didn't have a significant rally since the dump of May/June, however, there is RSI divergence (slowing momentum), and MACD was still bearish; on the other hand, BTC will face the ATH wall soon. Last year, before September we had a strong move that ended up with a correction and choppy market conditions in September.
There are some similarities between pre-September of 2021 and the other years, for example, RSI divergence, strong moves in prior months. It will be interesting to see how it will play out and if the similarities will keep up.
Explanation per Year:
2020
In 2020 after the March dump, BTC had a strong rally until August and September was the cooling-off of that move. Also, the RSI continued making lower highs while the price was making higher highs, giving the indication of a trend reversal.
2019
Sept 2019 had a different story but the outcome was kind of similar.
Dec2018 to March 2019 we saw the accumulation phase after the bear market and when the price started to move the rally was almost vertical; Vertical moves are emotional moves and normally don't last long. September arrived while prices keep falling to make higher highs and end up with a dump in September.
The market structure from 2019 differs from 2020 but the outcome is similar, sideway-move and/or crash
2018
In 2018 we came from the 17 Dec 2017 ATH right at the end of the bear market. Price tried to break the EMA21 week and failed, giving continuation to the bear market. Price once again was choppy after a small rally confirming EMA21 week as resistance (once again).
2018 situation was different from 2020 and 2019 but the September outcome was similar.
2017
In 2017 the similarities are probably more noticeable since we were in the middle of the bull market preparing for the last move. On the other hand, in 2017 there was no death cross and we didn't see the price action going below the EMA21 week, not MA 200.
The move from March to August was strong, way stronger than in 2021, but we had the correction here and the RSI divergence was there as well.
2016
In 2016 BTC was right in the middle of the bull market and after a rally, the price came to the mean support areas and consolidate over September after a good V shape recovery.
Comparing the historical data to predict the future, it's possible that mean reversion strategies could yield good performance while challenging the trend following strategies. On the other hand, in the past, we don't see high values of market noise which is great for breakout strategies.
If we dig deeper into the lower time-frames there are clear trends and smaller breakouts. (This would be another opportunity for lower time frame strategies).
September will be an outstanding test for the different strategies because market cycles, so far, have shown different behavior than in prior years.
Pre-Sep 2021 Insights:
BTC didn't have a significant rally since the dump of May/June, however, there is RSI divergence (slowing momentum), and MACD was still bearish; on the other hand, BTC will face the ATH wall soon. Last year, before September we had a strong move that ended up with a correction and choppy market conditions in September.
There are some similarities between pre-September of 2021 and the other years, for example, RSI divergence, strong moves in prior months. It will be interesting to see how it will play out and if the similarities will keep up.
Explanation per Year:
2020
2019
Dec2018 to March 2019 we saw the accumulation phase after the bear market and when the price started to move the rally was almost vertical; Vertical moves are emotional moves and normally don't last long. September arrived while prices keep falling to make higher highs and end up with a dump in September.
The market structure from 2019 differs from 2020 but the outcome is similar, sideway-move and/or crash
2018
2018 situation was different from 2020 and 2019 but the September outcome was similar.
2017
The move from March to August was strong, way stronger than in 2021, but we had the correction here and the RSI divergence was there as well.
2016