Hi Traders and Investors,
spotted this as i was playing with Fibonacci Levels on the Weekly in the Logarithmic Chart.
Base was the Wave before the Top in 2014 and the Retracement of it.
At the Top in 2014 it reached the 2.
Last Top in 2017 it reached is top perfectly at the 4 (2+2).
If BTC follow this behaviour we should end up at the 6 (2+2+2) by the End of this Bull Cycle. This would mean approx. 300k per BTC as Top.
In Addition to this i found this Parallel Channel , that hitted the last 2 Tops and Bottoms.
Bonus are the other Finonacci Retracements from the Top 2014 and the Top in 2017 to its bottoms.
Last Top in 2017 we hit the 2.382 of the Fibonnacci Retracement of the Top in 2014.
If we use that as a base to estimate the Top in the Future we would land for the 2.382 at approx. 250k per BTC as Top for the Current Retracement since 2017.
As Conclusion:
I think the next Top will be between 250k - 300k in Q4 2021.
Leaning more towards the 300k as it would perfectly hit Fibonacci Level 6 + Top of the Channel + Dezember 2021.
Let me know what you think of it. Would kindly appreciate.
Have a nice day,
your Partysafari
spotted this as i was playing with Fibonacci Levels on the Weekly in the Logarithmic Chart.
Base was the Wave before the Top in 2014 and the Retracement of it.
At the Top in 2014 it reached the 2.
Last Top in 2017 it reached is top perfectly at the 4 (2+2).
If BTC follow this behaviour we should end up at the 6 (2+2+2) by the End of this Bull Cycle. This would mean approx. 300k per BTC as Top.
In Addition to this i found this Parallel Channel , that hitted the last 2 Tops and Bottoms.
Bonus are the other Finonacci Retracements from the Top 2014 and the Top in 2017 to its bottoms.
Last Top in 2017 we hit the 2.382 of the Fibonnacci Retracement of the Top in 2014.
If we use that as a base to estimate the Top in the Future we would land for the 2.382 at approx. 250k per BTC as Top for the Current Retracement since 2017.
As Conclusion:
I think the next Top will be between 250k - 300k in Q4 2021.
Leaning more towards the 300k as it would perfectly hit Fibonacci Level 6 + Top of the Channel + Dezember 2021.
Let me know what you think of it. Would kindly appreciate.
Have a nice day,
your Partysafari
Trade active:
As far as 2021 is going, we are still outpacing the last bull run in terms of growth over time.
This let me think that we will probably getting an accelerated bull run, that will be shorter and more explosive as in 2017 and probably also a shorter bear market with less drawdown.
I measured that the first price explosion after conquering the ATH in 2017 took us much longer to reach the next consolidation level as within this actual cycle.
In my updated chart, i took the percentage gains from the first markup in 2017 (old ATH 1,2k to 3k) and compared it with the first markup from this cycle (ATH 20k to 42k).
The percentage gains were slightly smaller (~72%) but the time needed was less.
I then draw a parabolic curve and noticed that we are almost close to get vertical like in October 2017.
Right now we entered the 2nd base comparable to the rise in August 2017.
I projected, that in case it follows the same proportionality, we should get to 62k within Februar or first week of March 2021.
After that, we get the next correction and End of March/Begin of April we would get fully vertical like in October 2017.
If it would follow this proportionality, our next Bitcoin Top Peak would be at around 200k in May 2021.
Maybe this will be the Top for 2021, but a larger correction at this Point is inevitable for such parabolic movement.
A few month correction should at least take us -50 to -60% before we enter the next cycle.
But i doubt lengthenend cycle's are still a thing nowadays, for that we are already way to vertical and the news and fundamental analysis favor also not the lengthenend cycle theories.
In my point of few we could experience a 2 or maybe 3 shorter cycle period where we don't get a 2 or 3 year long bear cycle in the next years.
This let me think that we will probably getting an accelerated bull run, that will be shorter and more explosive as in 2017 and probably also a shorter bear market with less drawdown.
I measured that the first price explosion after conquering the ATH in 2017 took us much longer to reach the next consolidation level as within this actual cycle.
In my updated chart, i took the percentage gains from the first markup in 2017 (old ATH 1,2k to 3k) and compared it with the first markup from this cycle (ATH 20k to 42k).
The percentage gains were slightly smaller (~72%) but the time needed was less.
I then draw a parabolic curve and noticed that we are almost close to get vertical like in October 2017.
Right now we entered the 2nd base comparable to the rise in August 2017.
I projected, that in case it follows the same proportionality, we should get to 62k within Februar or first week of March 2021.
After that, we get the next correction and End of March/Begin of April we would get fully vertical like in October 2017.
If it would follow this proportionality, our next Bitcoin Top Peak would be at around 200k in May 2021.
Maybe this will be the Top for 2021, but a larger correction at this Point is inevitable for such parabolic movement.
A few month correction should at least take us -50 to -60% before we enter the next cycle.
But i doubt lengthenend cycle's are still a thing nowadays, for that we are already way to vertical and the news and fundamental analysis favor also not the lengthenend cycle theories.
In my point of few we could experience a 2 or maybe 3 shorter cycle period where we don't get a 2 or 3 year long bear cycle in the next years.