I am expecting a capitulation candle below Feb low of $6k, followed by strong reversal up to $12k.
Sentiment is doom everywhere, retail newbies are stacking shorts again like in April, yet current price action can be interpreted as a spring.
A lot of stops below 6k, a lot of breakout traders below 6k, and a lot of short liquidations for the reversal.
Expecting front running of the 5k target I'm seeing on a lot of charts.
Whether it breaks beyond 12k to 14k+ or breaks down from there, I'm not leaning any particular direction.
This makes the most sense to me, while price has dropped, positive developments in the space have increased. I can't see it reaching 3k without getting scooped up earlier than that.
Sentiment is doom everywhere, retail newbies are stacking shorts again like in April, yet current price action can be interpreted as a spring.
A lot of stops below 6k, a lot of breakout traders below 6k, and a lot of short liquidations for the reversal.
Expecting front running of the 5k target I'm seeing on a lot of charts.
Whether it breaks beyond 12k to 14k+ or breaks down from there, I'm not leaning any particular direction.
This makes the most sense to me, while price has dropped, positive developments in the space have increased. I can't see it reaching 3k without getting scooped up earlier than that.
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Scaling more out of my alts here, feels bull trappy
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Inverted chart, looks like weakening "up" volume to me
Maybe one more stab deeper in the red box before a reversal
Scaling back into positions
Maybe one more stab deeper in the red box before a reversal
Scaling back into positions
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Less correlation between BTC and alt/btc pairs on that last -4% 4 hour candle than before, many alts at support, likely rally soon
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Pamp eet
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Setting up for a rally like predicted, strong resistance at ~6.8k and ~7.8k
Bullish engulfing on 1D closing in half hour, tweezer bottom on weekly possibly closing in 2 days
Could play it safe and wait to break the intermediate high at ~6.4k, could buy on a pull back from today, up to your risk tolerance
Bullish engulfing on 1D closing in half hour, tweezer bottom on weekly possibly closing in 2 days
Could play it safe and wait to break the intermediate high at ~6.4k, could buy on a pull back from today, up to your risk tolerance
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OBV osc still carving out this ascending triangle as well... declining sell pressure is obvious
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Broke too close to the apex, struggle bus rally time
Still will see maybe 100% gain on alts from the bottom, I think
Still will see maybe 100% gain on alts from the bottom, I think
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Threw a fib from top to this bottom and there's some interesting confluence between the .5 and 13k target
Reminds me a lot of this setup in BTS, broke falling wedge at the apex and made it to the .5 retracement
Reminds me a lot of this setup in BTS, broke falling wedge at the apex and made it to the .5 retracement
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Nothing to update, even in the bear case down to 5-3k, we're due for above 7k (~7.4, 7.8) before that
Sitting tight in my positions
Sitting tight in my positions
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6.8k resistance is exhausted and will be cut through like butter
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Like butter
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Forgot to mention, this confirms the inverse head and shoulders everyone's been posting, strong break of neckline on volume
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Upward slanted basing pattern suggests we go up
Symmetrical swing target at 7.9k, bearish OB target 7.8k, a lot of buy stops above 7.8k that'll fuel this run
Symmetrical swing target at 7.9k, bearish OB target 7.8k, a lot of buy stops above 7.8k that'll fuel this run
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A lot weaker than I expected, swing failure followed by break of trendline on high volume, bearish 1D candle forming
Below 6.8k is super bearish
Retrace to 6.8k is also bearish because it negates the entire move up we just had
would like to see 7-7.2k hold before next leg up
Below 6.8k is super bearish
Retrace to 6.8k is also bearish because it negates the entire move up we just had
would like to see 7-7.2k hold before next leg up
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Still think this is just a shakeout and we go 7.8k+
Previous uptrends have 1 massive green candle followed by a gravestone doji before resumption of the uptrend
Previous uptrends have 1 massive green candle followed by a gravestone doji before resumption of the uptrend
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Closed all my alt positions yesterday, some in profit some in loss.
i.imgur.com/BjPgn0v.png
Keep your eye on btc dom to see if this wedge breaks out.
i.imgur.com/BjPgn0v.png
Keep your eye on btc dom to see if this wedge breaks out.
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Was clear the past few days we were going up, but now we're at pretty significant resistance.
200 EMA, .5 Fib, falling trendline, while we're overextended and have formed bear div on 1D.
Not gonna be a hero here, taking profit off the table and buying any dip from 7.2-7k.
200 EMA, .5 Fib, falling trendline, while we're overextended and have formed bear div on 1D.
Not gonna be a hero here, taking profit off the table and buying any dip from 7.2-7k.
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Alt/btc pairs look like they have 30-50% more to drop before a significant turn
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Longer BTC grinds along the resistance, the more likely it breaks up 8k+ before finally retracing
~5-10% drop is where I've placed buys on alts, should see a good bounce then
~5-10% drop is where I've placed buys on alts, should see a good bounce then
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Buying all dips lol, most resistances cleared till 10k
i.imgur.com/4GzNCRa.png
Got some alts on the dip to flip before BTC's next move up
i.imgur.com/4GzNCRa.png
Got some alts on the dip to flip before BTC's next move up
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First lower high, lower low on the daily, mostly on sidelines for now
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Unable to break back out of this flag, probably goes lower. 1d 55 EMA is ~7300, bottom of flag is ~7200, below that is very bearish. Setting bids there for a bounce.
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Bidding 7321 and 7221 for a bounce
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1D 21 EMA started downtrending, yellow circles are previous times this has happened. 6.8k should be strong support.
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Only got one fill, taking half off here, rest at breakeven, daily candle looks bullish but quick with profits in bear market
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Breakout, retest, adding here
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No buy volume, SL would be under this 30 min block but manually closing here
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There's the 7220 fill I wanted, 30 min block got exhausted by that wick so when price tumbled through it just now
Next STRONG support at 6.8k, would make for a good bounce
Next STRONG support at 6.8k, would make for a good bounce
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Also money is flowing into alts so looking there for trades more now
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Stopped out 7.2k breakeven
6.8-6.5 for a bounce, weekly looks really ugly
6.8-6.5 for a bounce, weekly looks really ugly
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Nice confluence of this block with .618 and .705 fibs, SL under 6.5, TP at 7.2, 7.6, 8.5
Could still make it to 10k+, but would rather make money than just hope, let's see how this plays out
Could still make it to 10k+, but would rather make money than just hope, let's see how this plays out
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Weekly candle looks ugly, but no reason to panic yet, retest of the trendline
100% possible already had the reaction I was looking for if the level is drawn like this
That is supported by the 2H which looks hopeful, higher highs and lows, lack of supply evident
Probably better than not to add a starter position around here
Probably better than not to add a starter position around here
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21 EMA uptrending
Pretty sure we don't dip sub 6.8k,very strong demand, if we do it'll just be a wick before going higher
Adding here
Pretty sure we don't dip sub 6.8k,very strong demand, if we do it'll just be a wick before going higher
Adding here
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Too impatient in retrospect, fill at 6.8k, more bids at 6.6 and 6.5
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Still holding onto longs with staggered stop on other side of this blue box, first test of this level since we broke through it a few weeks ago so no reaction would be very bearish.
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Just some observations on obv oscillator
1D - Long term rising triangle broke down (hopefully meaningless...)
1W - Symmetrical triangle still forming, bull div already played out, nothing much to see
1D - Long term rising triangle broke down (hopefully meaningless...)
1W - Symmetrical triangle still forming, bull div already played out, nothing much to see
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Daily inside bar broke bearish, looking deeper in this zone for bids. 5.8 probably will bounce slightly, 5.4 is bottom of this weekly demand zone but is a vpvr gap. Next weekly demand zone is 5-3k, will be laddering heavily in this region.
Set bids anticipating ALT/USD capitulation wicks to minimize BTC exposure. I know II'll be trying to fill some bags on the Coinbase alts...
Set bids anticipating ALT/USD capitulation wicks to minimize BTC exposure. I know II'll be trying to fill some bags on the Coinbase alts...
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Should have noticed this tweezer bottom in daily demand zone + bull div
Bounce can go as far as 7k, but low volume and long upper wicks don't inspire much confidence
Probably gonna stop updating this idea or make a new one when something significant changes, the bull case was strongest when we had that weekly divergence from each selloff weakening; that has since been negated by how sharp this recent dump was and how it completely ignored support levels
Will just use a simple trend following strategy until bulls have a strong case again
Bounce can go as far as 7k, but low volume and long upper wicks don't inspire much confidence
Probably gonna stop updating this idea or make a new one when something significant changes, the bull case was strongest when we had that weekly divergence from each selloff weakening; that has since been negated by how sharp this recent dump was and how it completely ignored support levels
Will just use a simple trend following strategy until bulls have a strong case again
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More recent thoughts here
Example from AMD, break of the second low acting as a spring.