This is my 888 post on the TradingView platform.
13 years ago, I was a 4th-grade Medical student in Shiraz, Iran, when I started trading stocks. Like many of you, I had never read a single book about trading when I started this. The result was a catastrophic -27% loss in the first 2 months. I had no choice other than to quit or find a way to correct my mistakes!
I stopped trading and went to bookstores. I asked for books related to stock trading and bought whatever I found. Technical analysis, Fundamental analysis, and psychology books related to trading. I finished the books as fast as I could. By the end of the first week, when I finished the first book, I learned the biggest loss occurs when you "buy the right stock at the wrong time".
Reading more books convinced me trading couldn't be successful without a scientific approach. In the past 12 years, I just did technical analysis for companies and assets with solid fundamentals. The result was acceptable, but not extraordinary. 13 years of trading and analysis taught me a very important lesson, risk management is the most important part of investment and trading! Ignoring this reality will almost always lead to a catastrophic result. What happened in March 2021, to Bill Hwang and the banks provided the leverage for him is a clear example of mismanagement of risk.
In the past few years, bubbles and their characteristics became my favorite topic in trading. I studied bubbles and tried to find prospective modeling to find the latest stage of any bubble. In the past 6 months, I showed what I'm capable of by detecting EV makers' bubbles in February 2021, and Bitcoin in April 2021. All my followers know when I published an emergency alarm about the Total cryptocurrency market crash, it lost more than 1.1 trillion dollars in 4 days.
In the past few weeks, few subjects have caught my eye, Ark Invest, Elon Musk, Bill Hwang, Chamath Palihapitiya, and Wall Street Bets. I have published many posts about them, criticize them for their disruptive behaviors in the financial markets. In one of my posts, I brought up the hypothesis that EV makers, SPACs, Cryptocurrency, and Thematic investment bubbles could be related and caused by the same groups.
Now I would like to explain a scientific approach to these phenomenons and evaluate the shreds of evidence based on a scientific approach.
Hypothesis:
A hypothesis is a proposed explanation for a phenomenon. For a hypothesis to be a scientific hypothesis, the scientific method requires that one can test it. Scientists generally base scientific hypotheses on previous observations that cannot satisfactorily be explained with the available scientific theories.
What are Prospective models?
Prospective models use a trick to compute future scenarios for an indeterminate system: First, several exogenous parameters, assumptions, and model drivers are defined, and then these are fed into a dynamic model of socioeconomic metabolism that is deterministic relative to the exogenous parameters.
Wall Street Bets phenomenon:
In the past 2 weeks, I started evaluating the behavior of meme stocks and Wall Street Bets to find the best model to predict their behavior in the future. In one case (OCGN), as soon as I wrote about it as a future pump, it jumped 11% in 42 minutes!
I tried different models, and I was shocked by the accuracy of the calculations behind these price manipulations.
10 Million Rebellions or a very precise complex Algorithm
Wall Street Bets on Wikipedia:
r/wallstreetbets, also known as WallStreetBets or WSB, is a subreddit where participants discuss stock and options trading. It has become notable for its colorful and profane jargon, aggressive trading strategies, and for playing a major role in the GameStop short squeeze that caused losses for some U.S. firms and short sellers in a few days in early 2021.
The subreddit, describing itself through the tagline "Like 4chan found a Bloomberg terminal," is known for its aggressive trading strategies, which primarily revolve around highly speculative, leveraged options trading. Members of the subreddit are often young retail traders and investors who ignore fundamental investment practices and risk management techniques. The growing popularity of no-commission brokers and mobile online trading has potentially contributed to the growth of such trading trends. Members of the communities often see high-risk day trading as an opportunity to quickly improve their financial conditions and obtain additional income. Some of the members tend to use borrowed capital, like student loans, to bet on certain "meme stocks" that show popularity within the community.
The subreddit is also known for its profane and juvenile nature, with members often referring to themselves as "autists", "retards", "degenerates", and "apes". Users also frequently use slang such as "stonks" for stocks; "tendies" for gains or profits; "gay bears" for those who expect a stock to decline, for stock shorters, or as a general insult; "DD" for analysis of potential trades (from "due diligence"); "bagholder" for one whose position has severely dropped in value; "diamond hands" for holding stocks adamantly; and "paper hands" for selling at the first sign of loss. By 2020, Rogozinski was subsequently removed as a moderator.
My approach to the WSB phenomenon:
Q1: Is it possible WSB has no moderator or leader team?
My answer to this question is No. This level of accuracy in the calculation couldn't be the result of a 10 million group without any moderator. It is more probable it is done by a very strong algorithm that injects money at the right time and also dumps it perfectly.
Hypothesis Number 1: There is an Algorithm behind WSB
Q2: Who is behind this movement?
Previously I thought one of the above-mentioned people or all of them as a group could be behind this. At this moment, I think none of them can run such a complex operation.
Ark Invest can not behind this, all their major ETFs have negative performance in 2021.
Elon Musk is obsessed with playing gods' role in the cryptocurrency market and Tesla stock has performed negatively in 2021.
Bill Hwang could be the perfect match. He is notorious for using too much leverage in high-risk trades and he is banned from opening a hedge fund by Hong Kong and US regulatory due to insider trades in 2012-2014. Moreover, WSB operations need tons of money and he already lost +20 billion dollars in March 201.
Cathie Wood (Net worth US$250 million, October 2020), and Chamath Palihapitiya ($1.2 billion fortune following SPAC mergers with Opendoor, Virgin Galactic, and Clover Health, Apr 6, 2021) also couldn't be the case because of limited resources to make these movements, Although they are masters in manipulating crowds through social media to invest in overvalued assets.
Q3: Who is benefiting from WSB movements?
The answer to this question is not easy and needs a long explanation.
I believe 10 million WSB members could not be the winners. Statistically, a short minority of them could be winners while the majority lose money, like all other pyramid schemes.
Is there any similar phenomenon in the past tatt we can compare WSB with that?
In reality, I could not found any but there is a game with lots of similarities.
According to Forbes:
Pentagon Documents Reveal The U.S. Has Planned For A Bitcoin Rebellion
U.S. Department of Defense has wargames scenarios involving a Generation Z rebellion that uses bitcoin to undermine and evade "the establishment."
In the Pentagon war game, young people born between the mid-1990s and early 2010s use cyberattacks to steal money and convert it to bitcoin, documents published by investigative news site The Intercept revealed.
Called the 2018 Joint Land, Air, and Sea Strategic Special Program (JLASS), the war game is set in 2025 and is "intended to reflect a plausible depiction of major trends and influences in the world regions."
The group, called Zbellion, encourages cyberattacks against organizations that support "the establishment," funneling stolen cash into bitcoin to make "small, below the threshold donations" to "worthy recipients" and Zbellion members.
The program, which also reportedly wargames scenarios involving Islamist militants and anti-capitalist extremists, was conducted by students and faculty from the U.S. military’s war colleges, the training ground for prospective generals and admirals.
Conclusion:
I believe those who made the game are benefitted the most from WSB movements. WSB could be a perfect example of a controlled scientific experiment. WSB generates a lot of information about the patterns of behaviors of the potential future rebels.
Any establishment has the chance of survival only if it could predict its future threads, study them, and makes itself ready to face them before they happen.
Having experienced the misuse of social media power, in the case of Cambridge Analytica and Mobs attack on the heart of US democracy, the establishment will make sure it is ready for the future.
While many think the US power is because of its powerful military, I believe The US Dollar plays a more important role and any challenger should be ready to face firebacks. The cryptocurrency market tried to challenge the US dollar a received a 1.4 trillion dollar punch in the face!
It is ridiculous to think this phenomenon happened due to a tweet..!
In the 17th century, in the Meditations on First Philosophy, in which the Existence of God and the Immortality of the Soul are Demonstrated (1641), René Descartes said that the standard of truth is self-evidence of clear and distinct ideas. Despite the logician Descartes' understanding of "self-evident truth", the philosopher Descartes considered that the self-evident truth of "two plus two equals four" might not exist beyond the human mind; that there might not exist a correspondence between abstract ideas and concrete reality.
Moshkelgosha
All right reserved (I want to write a longer version as a screenplay)
Examples of Golden ratio in the so called meme stocks:
GME
AMC
References:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R/wallstreetbets
https://www.forbes.com/sites/billybambrough/2020/06/10/pentagon-documents-reveal-the-us-has-planned-for-a-bitcoin-rebellion/?sh=3ec802814cc0
https://theintercept.com/2020/06/05/pentagon-war-game-gen-z/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2_%2B_2_%3D_5
The market front runner industry (EV makers)seems exhausted ..!
History tends to repeats itself..!
Alarming signs in Bitcoin
I said Cryptocurrency Market Crash is coming 82 hours ago..!
WallStreetBets and ARK invest using the same PUMP???
Another Example of market Manipulation..!
Algorithms + Money to manipulate the Market
Who did provide the seed money for Ark's first 4 ETFs???
Social media trading bubble example..!
13 years ago, I was a 4th-grade Medical student in Shiraz, Iran, when I started trading stocks. Like many of you, I had never read a single book about trading when I started this. The result was a catastrophic -27% loss in the first 2 months. I had no choice other than to quit or find a way to correct my mistakes!
I stopped trading and went to bookstores. I asked for books related to stock trading and bought whatever I found. Technical analysis, Fundamental analysis, and psychology books related to trading. I finished the books as fast as I could. By the end of the first week, when I finished the first book, I learned the biggest loss occurs when you "buy the right stock at the wrong time".
Reading more books convinced me trading couldn't be successful without a scientific approach. In the past 12 years, I just did technical analysis for companies and assets with solid fundamentals. The result was acceptable, but not extraordinary. 13 years of trading and analysis taught me a very important lesson, risk management is the most important part of investment and trading! Ignoring this reality will almost always lead to a catastrophic result. What happened in March 2021, to Bill Hwang and the banks provided the leverage for him is a clear example of mismanagement of risk.
In the past few years, bubbles and their characteristics became my favorite topic in trading. I studied bubbles and tried to find prospective modeling to find the latest stage of any bubble. In the past 6 months, I showed what I'm capable of by detecting EV makers' bubbles in February 2021, and Bitcoin in April 2021. All my followers know when I published an emergency alarm about the Total cryptocurrency market crash, it lost more than 1.1 trillion dollars in 4 days.
In the past few weeks, few subjects have caught my eye, Ark Invest, Elon Musk, Bill Hwang, Chamath Palihapitiya, and Wall Street Bets. I have published many posts about them, criticize them for their disruptive behaviors in the financial markets. In one of my posts, I brought up the hypothesis that EV makers, SPACs, Cryptocurrency, and Thematic investment bubbles could be related and caused by the same groups.
Now I would like to explain a scientific approach to these phenomenons and evaluate the shreds of evidence based on a scientific approach.
Hypothesis:
A hypothesis is a proposed explanation for a phenomenon. For a hypothesis to be a scientific hypothesis, the scientific method requires that one can test it. Scientists generally base scientific hypotheses on previous observations that cannot satisfactorily be explained with the available scientific theories.
What are Prospective models?
Prospective models use a trick to compute future scenarios for an indeterminate system: First, several exogenous parameters, assumptions, and model drivers are defined, and then these are fed into a dynamic model of socioeconomic metabolism that is deterministic relative to the exogenous parameters.
Wall Street Bets phenomenon:
In the past 2 weeks, I started evaluating the behavior of meme stocks and Wall Street Bets to find the best model to predict their behavior in the future. In one case (OCGN), as soon as I wrote about it as a future pump, it jumped 11% in 42 minutes!
I tried different models, and I was shocked by the accuracy of the calculations behind these price manipulations.
10 Million Rebellions or a very precise complex Algorithm
Wall Street Bets on Wikipedia:
r/wallstreetbets, also known as WallStreetBets or WSB, is a subreddit where participants discuss stock and options trading. It has become notable for its colorful and profane jargon, aggressive trading strategies, and for playing a major role in the GameStop short squeeze that caused losses for some U.S. firms and short sellers in a few days in early 2021.
The subreddit, describing itself through the tagline "Like 4chan found a Bloomberg terminal," is known for its aggressive trading strategies, which primarily revolve around highly speculative, leveraged options trading. Members of the subreddit are often young retail traders and investors who ignore fundamental investment practices and risk management techniques. The growing popularity of no-commission brokers and mobile online trading has potentially contributed to the growth of such trading trends. Members of the communities often see high-risk day trading as an opportunity to quickly improve their financial conditions and obtain additional income. Some of the members tend to use borrowed capital, like student loans, to bet on certain "meme stocks" that show popularity within the community.
The subreddit is also known for its profane and juvenile nature, with members often referring to themselves as "autists", "retards", "degenerates", and "apes". Users also frequently use slang such as "stonks" for stocks; "tendies" for gains or profits; "gay bears" for those who expect a stock to decline, for stock shorters, or as a general insult; "DD" for analysis of potential trades (from "due diligence"); "bagholder" for one whose position has severely dropped in value; "diamond hands" for holding stocks adamantly; and "paper hands" for selling at the first sign of loss. By 2020, Rogozinski was subsequently removed as a moderator.
My approach to the WSB phenomenon:
Q1: Is it possible WSB has no moderator or leader team?
My answer to this question is No. This level of accuracy in the calculation couldn't be the result of a 10 million group without any moderator. It is more probable it is done by a very strong algorithm that injects money at the right time and also dumps it perfectly.
Hypothesis Number 1: There is an Algorithm behind WSB
Q2: Who is behind this movement?
Previously I thought one of the above-mentioned people or all of them as a group could be behind this. At this moment, I think none of them can run such a complex operation.
Ark Invest can not behind this, all their major ETFs have negative performance in 2021.
Elon Musk is obsessed with playing gods' role in the cryptocurrency market and Tesla stock has performed negatively in 2021.
Bill Hwang could be the perfect match. He is notorious for using too much leverage in high-risk trades and he is banned from opening a hedge fund by Hong Kong and US regulatory due to insider trades in 2012-2014. Moreover, WSB operations need tons of money and he already lost +20 billion dollars in March 201.
Cathie Wood (Net worth US$250 million, October 2020), and Chamath Palihapitiya ($1.2 billion fortune following SPAC mergers with Opendoor, Virgin Galactic, and Clover Health, Apr 6, 2021) also couldn't be the case because of limited resources to make these movements, Although they are masters in manipulating crowds through social media to invest in overvalued assets.
Q3: Who is benefiting from WSB movements?
The answer to this question is not easy and needs a long explanation.
I believe 10 million WSB members could not be the winners. Statistically, a short minority of them could be winners while the majority lose money, like all other pyramid schemes.
Is there any similar phenomenon in the past tatt we can compare WSB with that?
In reality, I could not found any but there is a game with lots of similarities.
According to Forbes:
Pentagon Documents Reveal The U.S. Has Planned For A Bitcoin Rebellion
U.S. Department of Defense has wargames scenarios involving a Generation Z rebellion that uses bitcoin to undermine and evade "the establishment."
In the Pentagon war game, young people born between the mid-1990s and early 2010s use cyberattacks to steal money and convert it to bitcoin, documents published by investigative news site The Intercept revealed.
Called the 2018 Joint Land, Air, and Sea Strategic Special Program (JLASS), the war game is set in 2025 and is "intended to reflect a plausible depiction of major trends and influences in the world regions."
The group, called Zbellion, encourages cyberattacks against organizations that support "the establishment," funneling stolen cash into bitcoin to make "small, below the threshold donations" to "worthy recipients" and Zbellion members.
The program, which also reportedly wargames scenarios involving Islamist militants and anti-capitalist extremists, was conducted by students and faculty from the U.S. military’s war colleges, the training ground for prospective generals and admirals.
Conclusion:
I believe those who made the game are benefitted the most from WSB movements. WSB could be a perfect example of a controlled scientific experiment. WSB generates a lot of information about the patterns of behaviors of the potential future rebels.
Any establishment has the chance of survival only if it could predict its future threads, study them, and makes itself ready to face them before they happen.
Having experienced the misuse of social media power, in the case of Cambridge Analytica and Mobs attack on the heart of US democracy, the establishment will make sure it is ready for the future.
While many think the US power is because of its powerful military, I believe The US Dollar plays a more important role and any challenger should be ready to face firebacks. The cryptocurrency market tried to challenge the US dollar a received a 1.4 trillion dollar punch in the face!
It is ridiculous to think this phenomenon happened due to a tweet..!
In the 17th century, in the Meditations on First Philosophy, in which the Existence of God and the Immortality of the Soul are Demonstrated (1641), René Descartes said that the standard of truth is self-evidence of clear and distinct ideas. Despite the logician Descartes' understanding of "self-evident truth", the philosopher Descartes considered that the self-evident truth of "two plus two equals four" might not exist beyond the human mind; that there might not exist a correspondence between abstract ideas and concrete reality.
Moshkelgosha
All right reserved (I want to write a longer version as a screenplay)
Examples of Golden ratio in the so called meme stocks:
GME
AMC
References:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R/wallstreetbets
https://www.forbes.com/sites/billybambrough/2020/06/10/pentagon-documents-reveal-the-us-has-planned-for-a-bitcoin-rebellion/?sh=3ec802814cc0
https://theintercept.com/2020/06/05/pentagon-war-game-gen-z/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2_%2B_2_%3D_5
The market front runner industry (EV makers)seems exhausted ..!
History tends to repeats itself..!
Alarming signs in Bitcoin
I said Cryptocurrency Market Crash is coming 82 hours ago..!
WallStreetBets and ARK invest using the same PUMP???
Another Example of market Manipulation..!
Algorithms + Money to manipulate the Market
Who did provide the seed money for Ark's first 4 ETFs???
Social media trading bubble example..!
Comment:
