Today has been an interesting day. A day of learning I would even say. Perhaps of remembering that we are dealing with bitcoin here, and that bitcoin loves to wreck shorts.
Yesterday I opened up a short with 1/3 of my position, thinking that a 4h wedge that had been repeatedly tested on its lower limit would break. God, was I wrong. Not only it didn't break, but it actually refused to go down. At 6100 it broke up and continued the trend, making a new and sharper one. My plan was to add to that short on the 0.236 fib, at around 6400, which I did (actually triggered while I was sleeping). Surely it would slow down after that, and would allow me to at least close my trade flat and retain mi dignity. Nope, no dignity for shorters. It's as if 2017 taught me nothing.
I was busy all morning at work today, and was kinda hoping that the next time I layed eyes on a chart it would come down. Well, at least it bounced off the resistance at 6645. I wasnt so sure about that one so I didn't leave an order to add the final 1/3 of my position there. Perhaps I should have. I opted to wait for the 0.382 fib, at around 6800, which hasn't been touched yet.
Right now, I will stick to the plan, and add the final 3rd of my position, if it doesn't come down. If it does, I already have an order to close flat. When a trade goes wrong from the start, I'd rather leave money on the table than miss an oportunity for an exit.
It is worth noting that, on 30m, it has been TWO FULL DAYS since ema9 crossed sma20 on its way down. That, my friends, is RARE, and IMO pure manipulation. I believe most algorithms activate and sell when that happens and someone has been preventing it. Like I've said many times, that crossing along with a MACD crossing is my personal favorite setup (for whatever that's worth). I strongly believe that when it does cross, we will have a dump. Maybe not a new low, but a dump nevertheless.
As for longer term timeframes, I think there is a clear H&S pattern, though some input on it would be appreciated, since I mostly suck at indetifying H&Ss. On the 4h you can see the should should end at about... 6990, which is just where I have a line drawn from several days ago, so that's a likely target. On 1D It looks a lot better formed, and the target for the right shoulder hits just in my 0.382 fib at around 6820, and since I trust longer timeframes more, I might add my last part there. If that breaks up, then I guess someone will be enjoying a good bit of my trading money this weekend.
I still believe that a correction from yesterdays rally is due. And if I am wrong, I've learned a lot from these past few days. Oh and I bought a couple of cheap alts when they were at their (for now) bottom so that's something.
Yesterday I opened up a short with 1/3 of my position, thinking that a 4h wedge that had been repeatedly tested on its lower limit would break. God, was I wrong. Not only it didn't break, but it actually refused to go down. At 6100 it broke up and continued the trend, making a new and sharper one. My plan was to add to that short on the 0.236 fib, at around 6400, which I did (actually triggered while I was sleeping). Surely it would slow down after that, and would allow me to at least close my trade flat and retain mi dignity. Nope, no dignity for shorters. It's as if 2017 taught me nothing.
I was busy all morning at work today, and was kinda hoping that the next time I layed eyes on a chart it would come down. Well, at least it bounced off the resistance at 6645. I wasnt so sure about that one so I didn't leave an order to add the final 1/3 of my position there. Perhaps I should have. I opted to wait for the 0.382 fib, at around 6800, which hasn't been touched yet.
Right now, I will stick to the plan, and add the final 3rd of my position, if it doesn't come down. If it does, I already have an order to close flat. When a trade goes wrong from the start, I'd rather leave money on the table than miss an oportunity for an exit.
It is worth noting that, on 30m, it has been TWO FULL DAYS since ema9 crossed sma20 on its way down. That, my friends, is RARE, and IMO pure manipulation. I believe most algorithms activate and sell when that happens and someone has been preventing it. Like I've said many times, that crossing along with a MACD crossing is my personal favorite setup (for whatever that's worth). I strongly believe that when it does cross, we will have a dump. Maybe not a new low, but a dump nevertheless.
As for longer term timeframes, I think there is a clear H&S pattern, though some input on it would be appreciated, since I mostly suck at indetifying H&Ss. On the 4h you can see the should should end at about... 6990, which is just where I have a line drawn from several days ago, so that's a likely target. On 1D It looks a lot better formed, and the target for the right shoulder hits just in my 0.382 fib at around 6820, and since I trust longer timeframes more, I might add my last part there. If that breaks up, then I guess someone will be enjoying a good bit of my trading money this weekend.
I still believe that a correction from yesterdays rally is due. And if I am wrong, I've learned a lot from these past few days. Oh and I bought a couple of cheap alts when they were at their (for now) bottom so that's something.