EDIT: Things haven't been panning out so good and we are having some trendline breaches, I am no neutral-short biased bitcoin for at least till may 6-7th. RSI rsi ramping up a again and selling momentum might come back.
Bitcoin keeps rocking back and forth on news and speculation. The longer term trend is still bearish, but the bears seem too scared to take it down farther without more news to back their feelings up. Technically:
1. This sell-off from 500 fueled by even more china news has failed to have any serious volume, and rsi on 6h has failed to go under 30. Furthermore the subsequent lower low did not cuase a lower low on rsi
2 .420~ the prior high volume take off point before stairstepping to 540 began, has held up quite strongly and not enough volume has managed to gather.
3. 200 6h moving average has acted as MAJOR resistance throughout this bear trend. 50 6h moving average has acted as a short term indicators of trend (if above or under)
4. wedge might be beginning to form if 420 continues to act as support
Other interesting things to notice:
1.China news taking less of a toll on markets, volume has been muted, the % sell off has been lower than usual, as well as the subsequent aftershock sell offs. Specifically some U.S. exchange have actually been consisntely trading above chinese exchanges, and sometimes by a fair margin.
2. usd on margin and bitcoins shorted on bitfinex have been converging.
Uncertainties:
China news, if true, which it probably is, pretty much means that it will be significantly harder for big money in china to get involved in bitcoin as they will have far more hoops to go through.
Bitcoin is still below the crucial 200 6h moving average, and until a break through and confirmation, any trade should be considered speculative bottom calling
conclusion
any strong break under 420 will probably lead to a move under 400
Breaking of 200 6h moving average could signal trend change.
China might become a weaker player in weeks to come as moving money significnatly impairs flows, but might also raise bitcoin prices in china as bitcoin supply in chinese exchanges declines as bitcoins are moved to other exchanges and/or countries where Chinese might not be able to fund, potentially making the price differential a sort of "premium" chinese pay to circumvent normal capital controls.
As such, US exchanges might get back on the front row.
HIGHLY SPECULATIVE/MISC.
second market exchange opens in summer
Main bitcoin confrence in mid may.
Sell in may and go away in equity markets, some investors might seek bitcoin?
Potential intensifying of sanctions on Russians, interesting to see how this could spill over, if at all.