BTCUSD Oscillator swing

For the past few bull runs, each time BTC has maxed out bear momentum on the stoch, it has signalled a bull run. I can see a couple of double tops preceding these dips using BTC as a launch pad to the next run.

I'm not sure how BTC has responded to blow off tops in the past. Has that signalled a bear market? But if the trend continues, this looks like a promising dip. Will wait for divergences to confirm.

At the very minimum I would expect a short them bull run before collapsing.

I'm still a crypto noob but wanted to log this observation.

Comment:

I've been thinking about this a little more. Obviously, this alone cannot signal a reversal. What can 100%? I think what this does highlight is a signalling of a momentum change in order to break the ATH. To make our journey successful from this point, we'll need to break local highs and make lower lows from the bottom this sets. If we can hold the bottom we make on this move, then our probability increases for our momentum to continue higher. I'll be looking for higher lows on the oscillator while making higher lows and stoch crosses in bullish zones. Confluence with strengthening RSI and keeping an eye out for major support and resistance levels along the way.

Look at the double bottom on the circles farthest to the left. Price closed lower but bear momentum was slowing. Curious, so very curious.

Comment:

Well, here we are. We have arrived at our destination. Many factors are aligning to suggest a bounce of sorts. Will it be THE bounce? I'm less confident about that. But we are oversold on the weekly and daily with a stoch cross about to occur. OBV on the daily has hit a bottom. Sell volume has been decreasing.

Comment:

Fair to say this idea is over. I would revise the idea to match the -85% retrace percentage, which takes us to around USD 3k. That'll obviously match our bear exhaustion levels. I sense the bounce.

Trade closed: target reached:

So we have bounced from the previously forecasted oscillation exhaustion. Will this bounce be the one that takes us past 20k? Meh, who knows?

This bounce aligned nicely with a previous support level. I've learnt that one must look for a series of factors to determine an edge. The volume will be the key to the rise.