Well I hope this analysis isn't correct as it would mean absolute devastation for every market Globally. But it looks like Klaus Schwab is getting his way with the Great Reset. This Analysis is predicated on the idea that Bitcoin has completed a wave 1 at Cycle Degree in November of 2021, meaning we are now in a Cycle Degree wave 2 correction which will correct the entire history of Bitcoin. Assuming the wave 2 at Cycle Degree will be similar to the wave 2 at primary degree, I have copied the price pattern and modified it to fit a longer correction (Blue line). A typical wave 2 in bitcoin's history has traditionally lasted 1/3-1/2 the time of the previous wave 1 with a depth of -93%. If this repeats in a similar way we should expect to see a bottom somewhere between June 2025 and June 2027, with price reaching a target range of $2500-$4500.
In the short/medium term this count expects price to have a small capitulation over the next 1-3 months, followed by a counter trend rally over the next 6-12 months. This rally would most likely be catalyzed by the federal reserve pausing interest rates in response to inflation decreasing. However rising asset prices may cause inflation to continue to be stickier than people want. It's also entirely possible that the damage to the underlying economy caused by raising interest rates too high too fast will start to make its impact. If the latter is the case I would expect the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates near 0 again but similar to the GFC of 2008 the damage will already be done and we will see a massive capitulation in all markets before finding a bottom 1-2 years later.
I know a lot of people will not enjoy this analysis but this seems to be the most likely scenario unfortunately. If you look at markets across the globe it's clear we were in one of the largest asset bubbles in history and that bubble has popped. Look no further than Shiba Inu Token which exploded over 10,000,000% in one year, with no underlying fundamentals. Good luck everyone and remember not to overleverage yourself as that is the entire reason we are in this situation.
In the short/medium term this count expects price to have a small capitulation over the next 1-3 months, followed by a counter trend rally over the next 6-12 months. This rally would most likely be catalyzed by the federal reserve pausing interest rates in response to inflation decreasing. However rising asset prices may cause inflation to continue to be stickier than people want. It's also entirely possible that the damage to the underlying economy caused by raising interest rates too high too fast will start to make its impact. If the latter is the case I would expect the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates near 0 again but similar to the GFC of 2008 the damage will already be done and we will see a massive capitulation in all markets before finding a bottom 1-2 years later.
I know a lot of people will not enjoy this analysis but this seems to be the most likely scenario unfortunately. If you look at markets across the globe it's clear we were in one of the largest asset bubbles in history and that bubble has popped. Look no further than Shiba Inu Token which exploded over 10,000,000% in one year, with no underlying fundamentals. Good luck everyone and remember not to overleverage yourself as that is the entire reason we are in this situation.