Bitcoin has gone through several stages in its 2023/24 bull market.
Significant was the completion of a first wave at 49000 dollars, thereby matching the most significant inflection point in the 2022 bear market st the 0.618 retracement level. It was followed by a correction back to 38500 the following week in January 2024.
Since then the market continued toward the 53000 level, completing a lesser first wave and correcting it in the 50.5 k to 52.5 k zone.
It has now embarked on the next leg up in wave three toward about 85000.
The more immediate goal is the 54000 area in yet another subwave presented here.
Significant was the completion of a first wave at 49000 dollars, thereby matching the most significant inflection point in the 2022 bear market st the 0.618 retracement level. It was followed by a correction back to 38500 the following week in January 2024.
Since then the market continued toward the 53000 level, completing a lesser first wave and correcting it in the 50.5 k to 52.5 k zone.
It has now embarked on the next leg up in wave three toward about 85000.
The more immediate goal is the 54000 area in yet another subwave presented here.
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The chart speaks a thousand words.
This spike up is in wave three of Minuette degree of wave three of Minute degree
This spike up is in wave three of Minuette degree of wave three of Minute degree
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So that we know where we are in this market, here is the first wave since the beginning of the current larger third wave at 38.5 k in January.
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This market is progressing well, pretty much as anticipated.
Starting from 50.9 k this morning, the current high is 54.5 k… and running.
The market has opened us basically three relevant waves that will be completed.
Starting large:
Minute wave 3 (green) target 84530 (1.618)
Minuette wave 3 (purple) target 54840 (2.618)
Subminuette wave 3 (blue) finished 53622 (about 8.00 multiple)
Subminuette wave 5 (blue) target 56024 about 8.00
At least that is what I currently see.
Starting from 50.9 k this morning, the current high is 54.5 k… and running.
The market has opened us basically three relevant waves that will be completed.
Starting large:
Minute wave 3 (green) target 84530 (1.618)
Minuette wave 3 (purple) target 54840 (2.618)
Subminuette wave 3 (blue) finished 53622 (about 8.00 multiple)
Subminuette wave 5 (blue) target 56024 about 8.00
At least that is what I currently see.
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Bitcoin has advanced to almost 55000 and is now looking for further gains, after a short fourth wave correction.
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The buying pressure is keeping this correction very shallow, for which the market has its tricks by expanding time.
An ABC flat with triangle in B wave and an ending diagonal for wave C.
An ABC flat with triangle in B wave and an ending diagonal for wave C.
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Will we see 60000 tomorrow?
Will we see 60000 tomorrow?
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How about 59000?
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Well, the market already brought us 57000 on some of the exchanges. The index stayed just below.
Minute wave three extended to 400% of wave one (@ 57032) exceeding expectations.
Based on the wave counting here, the waves up to and including Minute wave three got closed out. Minute wave 4 is in progress in a correction.
Minute wave five will extend the gains. Conceivably this could run a few more thousand points, because wave three was not extended.
Minute wave three extended to 400% of wave one (@ 57032) exceeding expectations.
Based on the wave counting here, the waves up to and including Minute wave three got closed out. Minute wave 4 is in progress in a correction.
Minute wave five will extend the gains. Conceivably this could run a few more thousand points, because wave three was not extended.
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Structural resistance is present in the 59 k to 60 k area.
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I am sorry, when I spoke about Minute waves in previous text with latest chart, I meant MINUETTE degree.
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So far the correction of wave Minuette 3 in Minuette 4 has been confined to the 23.6 per cent zone. I am not looking for a deep correction, but hopefully not a short one. Below there is support from the previous correction zone, which is also the 38.2 % retracement.
The market seems to want to turn upward again, but that does nit mean continuation, necessarily, despite the bullish look.
The market seems to want to turn upward again, but that does nit mean continuation, necessarily, despite the bullish look.
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I see somewhat bullish structures emerging again.
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The correction from yesterday’s rise is still ongoing, I believe. Don’t be fooled that wave four (purple) is done the way I drew it. It shows a sloping uptrend, even with a new market high, but this is all very sluggish. This period is now much longer than yesterday’s corrections on the way here. This means a large wave is forming in the near future, building up energy now.
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Perhaps this is the correct structure.
Accordingly we should now expect the formation of a first wave.
Accordingly we should now expect the formation of a first wave.
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I am beginning to think that this entire leg up from 51 k is just a a single wave one of enclosing degree. This means I need to downgrade all waves since by one degree to keep my hierarchy intact. We saw two new highs today, and I think one might close the last open wave in purple. Time will tell.
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BTC is out early today sailing.
58.5 k
58.5 k
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Enroute to 60 k.
Fifth wave (probably) finished at 4.236.
Fifth wave (probably) finished at 4.236.
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Clearly the aim is on for a new ATH in early March. This can happen in a day or two even. At these price levels, four or five thousand points can be daily noise.
This is even earlier than my forecast a couple months or so ago, when I projected for early March meaning first or second week.
61.5 k.
This is even earlier than my forecast a couple months or so ago, when I projected for early March meaning first or second week.
61.5 k.
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The market reached a price of just short of 64000 dollars, before showing some firework in the opposite direction. The retracement was quick, and deep, with precisely a 0.786 logarithmic fib ratio of the entire five-wave sequence
Well, it was very close to the fib level, by about sixty bucks.
It still amazes me how precisely the market knows these levels.
Well, it was very close to the fib level, by about sixty bucks.
It still amazes me how precisely the market knows these levels.
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So, let’s do some more analytics to verify my wave counts.
We are talking about the impulse from bitcoin’s recent area of rest at the 50.5 k line, which I had advertised as an ideal entry point for this leg up in another post referenced below.
In the following chart, this is the purple wave. Purple subwave three extended by a Fibonacci fraction beyond four times the size of wave one, and it just so happened that wave five was almost identical in size. This gives confidence in the assignment, and therefore I call the wave closed.
The entire wave also conformed to the Fibonacci channel lines constructed from the major decline from 49000 to 38500 in January. I have highlighted the 23.6 %, 38.2 z, and 50.0 % levels. Clearly these were the dominant milestones in the progression of this wave, structural resistances playing a minor role. The resistances are marked by orange lines.
We are talking about the impulse from bitcoin’s recent area of rest at the 50.5 k line, which I had advertised as an ideal entry point for this leg up in another post referenced below.
In the following chart, this is the purple wave. Purple subwave three extended by a Fibonacci fraction beyond four times the size of wave one, and it just so happened that wave five was almost identical in size. This gives confidence in the assignment, and therefore I call the wave closed.
The entire wave also conformed to the Fibonacci channel lines constructed from the major decline from 49000 to 38500 in January. I have highlighted the 23.6 %, 38.2 z, and 50.0 % levels. Clearly these were the dominant milestones in the progression of this wave, structural resistances playing a minor role. The resistances are marked by orange lines.
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“Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to go from here?" "That depends a good deal on where you want to get to," said the Cat. "I don't much care where-" said Alice. "Then it doesn't matter which way you go," said the Cat
LOL.
WELL, Elliott gave us a theory and tools for that.
So now we can plot the next move by BTC. We already know the next larger wave that is still unfinished. We just need to figure out how to get there from here.
LOL.
WELL, Elliott gave us a theory and tools for that.
So now we can plot the next move by BTC. We already know the next larger wave that is still unfinished. We just need to figure out how to get there from here.
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Market is looking up again…. But this time the structural resistance is defended more by sellers.
In addition a trend line reinforces that place. From he size of the wave we should expect a new ATH, but we need to get past here first.
In addition a trend line reinforces that place. From he size of the wave we should expect a new ATH, but we need to get past here first.
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A better choice for the outcome of the current action is probably this correction.
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Weekend is over and the big buyers are showing up for work.
Check mark 65000.
Check mark 65000.
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THE LAST STAGE
The stage is set for the last race of the tour to BITCOIN’s ATH.
The strong start of the week has brought the market to the last significant structural resistance from the 2021 market top, at about the 66.5 k and 67000 levels, where the market just paused a bit.
This wave started at 60200, with a first wave top at 63200, followed by a retrace to 61400. This laid the ground work for a potential extension in the third wave at 66200 for the 1.618 Fibonnaci level, or at 69500 .for the 2.618 extension level. Remarkable these values coincide closely with the resistance seen, and the ATH.
The stage is set for the last race of the tour to BITCOIN’s ATH.
The strong start of the week has brought the market to the last significant structural resistance from the 2021 market top, at about the 66.5 k and 67000 levels, where the market just paused a bit.
This wave started at 60200, with a first wave top at 63200, followed by a retrace to 61400. This laid the ground work for a potential extension in the third wave at 66200 for the 1.618 Fibonnaci level, or at 69500 .for the 2.618 extension level. Remarkable these values coincide closely with the resistance seen, and the ATH.
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Since there is no indication that the current rally, highlighted in the chart with +/-2-sigma regression channel, has a break for significant features (end of wave, or retrace) I am going by the assumption that the run will continue to the ATH and possibly just beyond, when we might expect some struggle with rejection by the bears. All is well.
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Having crossed the last structural resistance levels before the ATH, we see a bit of a breakout attempt from the regression channel.
The old ATH is in immediate reach of todays market.
The old ATH is in immediate reach of todays market.
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Having travelled in the upper half of its regression channel since the morning hours NYC time, it is breaking upward toward capturing the old high.
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This is just orderly trading, grinding through the resistance in a strong market. No spike of exhaustion, no rush to the top.
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Fourth time was a charm… a squeeze
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So it appears that breaking the ATH has been deferred to another wave. By my counting, there is still a fifth wave left to be started. We got a break in the uptrend which must be the last fourth wave in this sequence.
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On the bitcoin index data source, which is an average of several exchanges, the market is short by 288 points to the ATH.
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Feels like watching a solar eclipse.
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Q. E. D.
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The final waves that led to the new ATH are shown, here in the gree trace.
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Although we do have an official new ATH, the work isn’t done yet. Just a tiny wick, no action or close above. Instead we got a huge dump from a flas crash in the major exchanges. Ugh.
After a billion dollar flush of open interest, stops, and orders, and after a day of recovery and simmering, the resistance is still palpable as can be seen from a demarcation trend line that has proven effective for the day in keeping the bulls below 68k.
This trend line arises from a fourth wave triangle of the recovery wave from the bottom of the crash, as seen in the chart.
This presents a scenario in which a new ATH can be punched from the energy accumulated in the compressed triangle trading in form of an impulse out of wave E of the triangle.
The maximal height (green arrow) of this impulse is limited by the size of wave three, as a third wave cannot be the shortest wave, as wave one was a bit longer than wave three.
After a billion dollar flush of open interest, stops, and orders, and after a day of recovery and simmering, the resistance is still palpable as can be seen from a demarcation trend line that has proven effective for the day in keeping the bulls below 68k.
This trend line arises from a fourth wave triangle of the recovery wave from the bottom of the crash, as seen in the chart.
This presents a scenario in which a new ATH can be punched from the energy accumulated in the compressed triangle trading in form of an impulse out of wave E of the triangle.
The maximal height (green arrow) of this impulse is limited by the size of wave three, as a third wave cannot be the shortest wave, as wave one was a bit longer than wave three.
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I don’t feel like beating up on this topic much more, since it was obvious from the wave structure of the market that we would get here sooner or later.
But it now appears that we are finally going to get a solid daily and perhaps weekly close above the 2021 high.
The market has entered, or recentered, another layer of its Fibonnaci channels. These trend lines have frequently acted as resistances and support zones.
The current channel leads straight to a price of 100000 dollars by halving day, which is currently anticipated on April 18. I have predicted this price level for that time frame for months now.
But it now appears that we are finally going to get a solid daily and perhaps weekly close above the 2021 high.
The market has entered, or recentered, another layer of its Fibonnaci channels. These trend lines have frequently acted as resistances and support zones.
The current channel leads straight to a price of 100000 dollars by halving day, which is currently anticipated on April 18. I have predicted this price level for that time frame for months now.
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Another big move is imminent.
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Well, that was a bit premature….
But now the market is setting new ATHs almost daily, and the volatility is high in the periods between.
Frankly, 3-4 k is daily fluctuation now, at these price levels, in relation to 200-400 points a year ago at a fraction of the price.
Another ATH is in the works again today. We expect the fifth wave to complete soon, as shown in this counting of the last day’s waves.
But now the market is setting new ATHs almost daily, and the volatility is high in the periods between.
Frankly, 3-4 k is daily fluctuation now, at these price levels, in relation to 200-400 points a year ago at a fraction of the price.
Another ATH is in the works again today. We expect the fifth wave to complete soon, as shown in this counting of the last day’s waves.
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I am cautious though, as I don’t expect this fifth wave to be large. Wave three was shallow, almost 1:1 compared to one. It all depends on the exact length of that wick down. A shorter wick on one exchange, could make the fifth very long.
My chart is the INDEX, and nobody uses it for executing trades, probably.
My chart is the INDEX, and nobody uses it for executing trades, probably.
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I can see 74.5 k for this wave top. Perhaps a little more, too.
A surprise would be 76.8 k.
A surprise would be 76.8 k.
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Since this still hasn’t happened, it is plausible that this is just the B-wave of the fourth wave correction. Certainly the choppiness speaks for that too. A move down would clear that.
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Mystery unveiled.
This large triangle should function as a good spring board for another big move up.
This large triangle should function as a good spring board for another big move up.
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So…. This has been an interesting week.
A lot of screaming about corrections, crashes, bitcoin halving precursors, even conspiracies about gigantic billion dollar trades gone sour. All of this for a normal intra-rally correction after a fifth wave finish in Minute degree, that simply needed a correction, because the market goes up in five waves, and retraces in three.
The market performed perfectly according to its Fibonnaci structure. And trend lines. The decline stopped precisely on its lower trend line of the channel since the 38.5 k wave two Intermediate degree end, at which exact point two Fibonnaci tredlines intersected with 200 period average in the 4H chart.
In the course of not even a day, the market has recovered from a 60794 low to about 68000, where it is pausing now at exactly the 1.618 Fib level of its first wave of recovery, as seen in this chart. This line splits the distance to the ATH exactly in two. We should expect the fifth wave to repeat the distance of wave three to get back to the top. See green arrow.
A lot of screaming about corrections, crashes, bitcoin halving precursors, even conspiracies about gigantic billion dollar trades gone sour. All of this for a normal intra-rally correction after a fifth wave finish in Minute degree, that simply needed a correction, because the market goes up in five waves, and retraces in three.
The market performed perfectly according to its Fibonnaci structure. And trend lines. The decline stopped precisely on its lower trend line of the channel since the 38.5 k wave two Intermediate degree end, at which exact point two Fibonnaci tredlines intersected with 200 period average in the 4H chart.
In the course of not even a day, the market has recovered from a 60794 low to about 68000, where it is pausing now at exactly the 1.618 Fib level of its first wave of recovery, as seen in this chart. This line splits the distance to the ATH exactly in two. We should expect the fifth wave to repeat the distance of wave three to get back to the top. See green arrow.
The 1.618 fib extension level projected from the weekend waves has now been reached at about 53.5 k, but this is just a conservative estimate.