Felix000
Education

#bitcoin potential $8,644 - $8,309.1 if holds $6,008. new study.

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Unorthodox analysis. Here's how it works.

For the signal line mark all days goes above zero in green and below zero in red. When above zero days reversing up in tan and down in yellow. When below zero days reversing up in light blue and down in purple.

Next for each coloured vertical on the chart mark out the first Williams fractal volatility box to the day before the next coloured vertical.

Next where price rises out of the box no whipsaw box is green. Where price falls out of the box no whipsaw box is red. Where price falls first then rises (Whipsaw) then light blue. Where price rises first then falls (Whipsaw) then purple.

Will bitcoin's next move be like that from 10th February 2018, and will it get to the red box marked out from 21 May? The only difference appears to be the coloured vertical this time is red and 21 May was light blue. Could that wreck the potential?

If market breaks 11 August Williams fractal low $6,008.1 then potential upside move is cancelled and market could be heading lower.

Notice how that of 25 April and 20 July failed. The difference maybe being they started with a green vertical line. The move was also cancelled on those two occasions when price dropped out of the box after the next coloured vertical.

Don't ask me why study findings appear to look like could be used to develop a profitable trading strategy.

Note: For those who are not familiar with Trading View the chart above can be dragged backwards and forwards to view more.

Here's how to construct chart as mentioned in my last post:

Bollinger Bands
Leave out basis and upper
Set to length 20; Source Low; and STD Dev 0.001

MACD is (6, 13, close, 31) and I've only shown the signal line. I've left out the Histogram and MACD parts.

NOT ADVICE. ALL STANDARD DISCLAIMERS APPLY. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH. MACHINE LEARNER FRIENDLY.
Comment: Correction: Box 12 May should be purple (whipsaw) goes higher then drops out of the box.
Comment: Looking at both the day and weekly chart if I was manipulating the market and wanted to achieve spectacular bull potential leading into September then I would probably spend the week till August 26 between the range made 15 August setting it up. Let's see. I had expected to see a consecutive fractal high and then a bullish fractal low - will it happen, or, just head north without? As mentioned above the market also needs to hold above $6,008.1 to keep the potential upside going or the market could be heading lower.

NOT ADVICE. ALL STANDARD DISCLAIMERS APPLY. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH.
Comment: ROUNDUP OF ALL MY POSTINGS

A Williams Fractal low followed by consecutive Williams Fractal highs, all we need now is a bullish Williams Fractal low above the previous fractal low for a bounce like that formed 29 June, 4 July, 7 July, and 12 July respectively. How much room does the market have for a bullish bounce?

In my post 19 Aug I questioned "bitcoin bear trap - Is it too late to work/repeat" and I marked in green the volatility of a key fractal a breach of which was previously a bear signal. To sum up all my posts about that signal it bears no resemblance to previous bear signals - mist targets, and William Fractals, therefore best to ignore it.

The next potential was also posted same day 19 Aug headed "bitcoin potential $8,644 - $8,309.1 if holds $6,008. new study" and this can't be ignored.

Since publication of the post the signal went higher (add light blue vertical), and lower (add purple vertical). The good news is that the last fractal high was made before it. Had it been made after then it would have been starting off as a red box and a sell.

So now, will the shape of the next fractal low be that of a green box and a buy? Always take only the reading of the first fractal after a change in direction of the signal line.

Can it be formed before the low of $6,008 made 11 Aug?

A break below the low of 14 Aug $5,858.6 as per my post 15 Aug "#bitcoin mega quant move here's how and why - update" favours the bears. At this time of posting that quant move still favours the bulls.

If we do get a fractal bounce then I expect it will form a key upward trend line.

How to trade these possibilities is not something I'm going to get into.

NOT ADVICE. ALL STANDARD DISCLAIMERS APPLY. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH.
Comment: One final point just noticed about the consecutive Williams fractal highs is that the second did not form a higher high which is unusual given past patterns. Would that be counted as bearish?

NOT ADVICE. ALL STANDARD DISCLAIMERS APPLY. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH.
Comment: 2nd September volatility - price today 5 September has broken down below its low which would be a sell signal unless price climbs back up over 2nd September high again. For now that band of volatility would now be coloured red. Would turn blue if rose back up again. I may or may not update this chart.
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