meszaros
Long

BTCUSD continues to lose momentum...

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
The exchange rate may continue to rise, but the chance of 20,000 usd target prices is diminishing. I find the copy of the fractal seen in the analysis probable. The target price can be around 17000 usd. This is an additional 74% increase.
I see (and saw) it differently because I'm looking at a smaller trend within the Daily - namely the 8H. I published the position below before. The situation was a very familiar/common one within a descending contracting wedge.
This is what happened next over the next week
Note very CAREFULLY that I'm not referring to anyone or any known or identifiable trader. I'm sharing my opinion and experience - this is not advice.

I've said to many traders that:
1. The trend is your friend (well known to all traders but few truly make the trend their friend).
2. Small(er) trends have to over come bigger trends.
3. Higher time frame trend probabilities tend to impose similar probabilities on lower time frame trends (the evidence for this is in the ATR - it is simply mathematical.
4. If looking at any time frame explore lower and higher time frames for trends or reversal patterns.

The responses I usually get are "Let's wait and see.. time will tell" - which means that most traders are waiting for 'time' to unfold. By the time the future unfolds, it is too late. PROBABILITIES exist NOW; not in the future. The future is unwritten and totally unknown - AND - probabilities may change from any one assessment made at any particular prevous time. The emergence (in the future) of a trend from a probability estimate in the present is only a retrospective confirmation that the original probability estimate was correct. (Note wedge probabilities are different to established trend probabilities. Confirmation is not used in the sense of a 'signal'.)

But almost 'everybody' thinks they can make some 'prediction' about the future in terms of targets or projections. I call this self-deception, as do many of the great teachers of trading (which I am not).

Returning to BITCOIN from a trend following perspective only - which is different to Mesaros's methodology, I saw:
1. Probabilities in favour for a northward move on the 8H time frame - only 51%.
2. An entry long from the zone between 9537 and 8870 was optimal (based on the clearly visible contracting wedge).

Note that the first ATR signal of a trend change came on the 8H at 2019-08-02. This means that the wedge was reliable at a 51% estimate for the north and there was no need for waiting on the 8H trend switch i.e. waiting and seeing. The gain was 17.23% in one week to date from 9537-ish. Everybody may not like 17.23% in one week - which is fine.

I think the 8H time frame is useful for Bitcoin because it is such a highly volatile instrument. The 8H sits in the shadows of the 1D. By the time a significant move is seen on the Daily (1D), the trend change on a lower time frame (8H) has already happened. That's why I think the 8H is useful for anyone looking at the 1D. But I do emphasise again that I'm talking 'trend following' which is not in conflict with any other methodology - there are several roads to 'the promised land'.
Reply
meszaros Captain_Walker
@Captain_Walker, Thank you for this very detailed analysis. I would like to respond to the first part of the analysis. As for "the ability to see the future", I don't believe it either. Most analysts follow indicator signals. The other part works on wave theories. I belong to the second camp. There is no vision for the future either. This wave analysis works similarly to Elliot or other wave strategies, based on data from the past, based on probabilities. I use the data from the indicators to calculate the wave. For example, I calculate ATR axes, external, internal ATR values, and long and short strengths from PSAR. I also use it to set a target price. I use the MA indicator to measure daily volatility. Or a daily target to set prices.
+2 Reply
@meszaros, As mentioned, there are many roads to the promised land. I am so totally NOT occupied with any particular methodology.

To crystallise my main points (for whatever road one uses):
1. Probabilities exist NOW.
2. The future is unwritten - not predetermined and unfolds.
3. Probabilities may change as the future unfolds.
4. If a trend unfolds in favour of the initial probability estimate (using any method), it confirms retrospectively that the original probability estimate was correct.

Supplemental:
1. Risk is the probability that a 'future' may unfold that is not in favour of our initial probability estimate made by whatever methodology.
2. Risk of loss - has to be controlled.
3. Its better to lose nothing or very very little than to chase a hunch that the future will unfold favourably. This is obviously easier said than done - and is largely related to individual psychology - no so much a methodology.
4. No risk + no tolerance of controlled loss = no gain.
Reply
meszaros Captain_Walker
@Captain_Walker, I agree with you. I would like to add that my analysis does not include a Stop order, for example, because I work with more serious risk management money management. This includes a commercial performance monitoring system. But this applies to my trading account. Another trader has a different risk with a different account. Risk taking is a unique issue. These analyzes do not provide an answer.
Reply
@meszaros, That's fine for you. It is your 'road'. The point is that you do control risk.

Most people out here though are not working in a commercial environment. Would you agree to that?

>>These analyzes do not provide an answer.<<
There is no 'answer'. There is no question. I'm not here to teach anybody anything or advise. I give my opinion.

Risk is the fundamental issue. It's not for me to tell anybody how to control their risk in any particular methodology.
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so are you going to catch it from 11k to 9.5k or catch it at 9.5k for a long all the way up?
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@Kaidk, Thanks for asking. At this point, I believe the exchange rate is copying the first fractal movement path. I tried to draw size correctly. This means that the movement of the exchange rate between the two axes may take 1-2 weeks.
Reply
Kaidk meszaros
@meszaros, thanks for the reply, looks like its on a big uptrend and isn't following your paths...does this suggest I should enter a long here?
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@Kaidk, It depends on the time range you want to trade.
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@Kaidk,
For the time being, I do not see that the bitcoin movement path differs from my analysis. What do you see?
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