This is what happened next over the next week
Note very CAREFULLY that I'm not referring to anyone or any known or identifiable trader. I'm sharing my opinion and experience - this is not advice.
I've said to many traders that:
1. The trend is your friend (well known to all traders but few truly make the trend their friend).
2. Small(er) trends have to over come bigger trends.
3. Higher time frame trend probabilities tend to impose similar probabilities on lower time frame trends (the evidence for this is in the ATR - it is simply mathematical.
4. If looking at any time frame explore lower and higher time frames for trends or reversal patterns.
The responses I usually get are "Let's wait and see.. time will tell" - which means that most traders are waiting for 'time' to unfold. By the time the future unfolds, it is too late. PROBABILITIES exist NOW; not in the future. The future is unwritten and totally unknown - AND - probabilities may change from any one assessment made at any particular prevous time. The emergence (in the future) of a trend from a probability estimate in the present is only a retrospective confirmation that the original probability estimate was correct. (Note wedge probabilities are different to established trend probabilities. Confirmation is not used in the sense of a 'signal'.)
But almost 'everybody' thinks they can make some 'prediction' about the future in terms of targets or projections. I call this self-deception, as do many of the great teachers of trading (which I am not).
Returning to BITCOIN from a trend following perspective only - which is different to Mesaros's methodology, I saw:
1. Probabilities in favour for a northward move on the 8H time frame - only 51%.
2. An entry long from the zone between 9537 and 8870 was optimal (based on the clearly visible contracting wedge).
Note that the first ATR signal of a trend change came on the 8H at 2019-08-02. This means that the wedge was reliable at a 51% estimate for the north and there was no need for waiting on the 8H trend switch i.e. waiting and seeing. The gain was 17.23% in one week to date from 9537-ish. Everybody may not like 17.23% in one week - which is fine.
I think the 8H time frame is useful for Bitcoin because it is such a highly volatile instrument. The 8H sits in the shadows of the 1D. By the time a significant move is seen on the Daily (1D), the trend change on a lower time frame (8H) has already happened. That's why I think the 8H is useful for anyone looking at the 1D. But I do emphasise again that I'm talking 'trend following' which is not in conflict with any other methodology - there are several roads to 'the promised land'.
To crystallise my main points (for whatever road one uses):
1. Probabilities exist NOW.
2. The future is unwritten - not predetermined and unfolds.
3. Probabilities may change as the future unfolds.
4. If a trend unfolds in favour of the initial probability estimate (using any method), it confirms retrospectively that the original probability estimate was correct.
1. Risk is the probability that a 'future' may unfold that is not in favour of our initial probability estimate made by whatever methodology.
2. Risk of loss - has to be controlled.
3. Its better to lose nothing or very very little than to chase a hunch that the future will unfold favourably. This is obviously easier said than done - and is largely related to individual psychology - no so much a methodology.
4. No risk + no tolerance of controlled loss = no gain.
Most people out here though are not working in a commercial environment. Would you agree to that?
>>These analyzes do not provide an answer.<<
There is no 'answer'. There is no question. I'm not here to teach anybody anything or advise. I give my opinion.
Risk is the fundamental issue. It's not for me to tell anybody how to control their risk in any particular methodology.
For the time being, I do not see that the bitcoin movement path differs from my analysis. What do you see?