Predicting the future is a powerful tool.
Having an idea of the general direction of events can give someone the possibility to estimate in advance how to best position himself in the present. It’s what we humans to it all the time in the present moment to survive. “How will he/she react if I’m going to…?” “What will my investment be worth if if I buy/sell…?” “How will I look like 5 years from now?”
An infinite sets of questions each moment.
Yet, when it comes to spotting macro trends
people fail with their predictions
90% of the time.
Why ?
Well, one thing you will notice right from the start is that people are extremely quick at forming opinions on things.
We all use this mechanism, which is known as "survival mode”.
In the savannah, our ancestors life depended on their accuracy and velocity of thinking.
It was life and death differentiating a plant from a predator.
But many individuals remain at this levels forever.
Constantly in the savannah,
not giving enough time of thinking to themselves.
And when we try to imagine how the future will look like, forming opinions fast without knowing the full picture will be counterproductive.
Yet, even a bigger reason people fail to understand the future is because it goes beyond their knowledge. If someone does not have the optimal information source or isn’t able to be teachable, he will have a distorted view on the world. It’s what happens when people refute considering any alternative ideas to current problems and blindly follow what the majority does. In short, group thinking.
Good. Now that we know two major motives people fail at predictions, we can focus our attention on the future of crypto.
What will happen in 2022 and beyond in a crypto finial system ?
Lots of things...
1. Bubble
Right now there are approximately 18,000 cryptocurrencies.
THOUSANDS OF THEM.
Crypto investors all have their preferred ones and give everyone many arguments why their preferred coin is special, an undervalued gem or the next big thing. But is it really so ? Of course not.
It can’t be, as quantity does not equal quality.
If tomorrow 10,000 car companies created a car, it will INEVITABLY come out a few winners among them.
The BEST will always conquer the market.
Why then people think the new crypto finial system will have have hundreds of successfull cryptocurrencies ? Because this will fulfil their desire in the present moment, which is to become rich. But the world does not work according to our desires.
The world works according to efficiency and adaptation.
What’s able to resolve problems easily better than anything else will thrive. What doesn’t will fail. And that’s the case with more than 90% of the crypto market.
After 13 years of development, we have thousands of crypto systems that are practically unusable. In many cases the current technology is far superior to it. Of course, but that does not apply to the 1%. The Amazon, Google and Apple of crypto will emerge out from the bubble bloodbath into the new financial system and it is likely they are going to be even bigger than them!
Innovation exists, but it’s rare.
The bubble phase for crypto is coming soon you don’t want to be int 98% category that will fail.
2. The Main Winner Will Be Something New.
It happens often for people to see success as an improvement of past technology.
Blackberry was better than the previous generations of phones, but it wasn’t something new. iPhone was. When we look at crypto, the same thing will happen.
The most innovative and biggest winners of tomorrow will be something completely new, that expands and extends the best characteristics of the blockchain while minimising its greatest weaknesses.
3. Crypto Will Be Much Easier To Use.
The experience of using crypto protocols today is awful most of the time.
If you type wrong one letter for sending them you will lose it all forever. In addition gas fees, sending times and security is terrible for many protocols. Will it stay so forever ? Not until an important upgrade is made.
Remember first iteration of any technology is always imperfect.
The first computer, the first phone, the first prototype of any technology has the general idea incorporated inside them, but it hasn’t the performance.
Performance comes with time.
Only systems that provide all the features of the old system plus brand new features achieve mass adoption.The new technology has some advantages but too many disadvantages to really make it with the wider world and replace the old technology.
Think about the inheritance problem. What will happen to the families of people that suddenly died without sharing their keys and now their wallets are gone forever ? They will inherit nothing. Is it that feasible for a monetary technology ? Never.
So for crypto to really take off it will have to implement in the future, among many others things, algorithmic programs of the controls we have now for giving money to people we want and keeping it out of the hands of people who want to rob us. That will change in time once crypto will get pass the rudimentary and experimental stage is currently in.
4. Similar Technologies To Blockchain Will Appear
Blockchain is the first and main protocol of crypto, but it isn’t the only way crypto can work on.
People are already creating new one like Hashgraph or IOTA’s Tangle and that’s just the beginning.
Over the years there will be many similar distributed consensus protocols able to that surpass Visa level processing by miles with the help of artificial intelligence systems.
MANY OF THESE SYSTEMS, PERHAPS NONE, WILL BE DESIGNED BY HUMANS.
AI will manage to create systems no human could have ever invented.
During these protocols competition between different AI’s, there will be one or two of these system that will come to dominate all coins and become the alfa-system to rule them all, uniting many different kinds of cryptocurrencies and running the entire system like a fractal pattern that incorporates countless of networks inside of it.
5. Blockchain will be used for good, but also evil things.
Fire is a neutral object.
It is neither good or bad. It depends for what you use it. Same applies to blockchain.
There are bad actors in the current system, which will not miss the opportunity to further imprint their control over society. They will use blockchain for tracking of all aspects of your life, from where you go and what you do, to statistical predictions about your behaviour, as well as behavioral algorithms designed to incentivize you to conform to an ideology, and even kill you.
Sounds extreme, but it’s nothing new.
If I learned something from history is that the majority never learns anything from it.
Same mistakes will be repeated again.
If the Internet has taught us anything it’s that open systems tend towards centralization and given enough time central powers can and will subvert and corrupt any system to their own ends. Crypto can be a step forward, but if people stay ignorant as in the past the technology designed to improve the world will be instead a digital prison created for them.
6. The Economic World of Today Will Look Like The Middle Age.
A hundred years from now, todays economies will looks like the feudal ones of the past.
The next step in the evolution of the monetary system will involve for the first time in history a non human participation.
If you think deeply, crypto is not a monetary system for humans. It’s made for machines.
Machine to machine communications though smart contracts and algorithmic computations in milliseconds, without the necessity of any human.
How will this impact us ?
Thanks for reading everything. If you enjoyed it it don't forget to like and comment to let me know what you think.
See you soon!
Having an idea of the general direction of events can give someone the possibility to estimate in advance how to best position himself in the present. It’s what we humans to it all the time in the present moment to survive. “How will he/she react if I’m going to…?” “What will my investment be worth if if I buy/sell…?” “How will I look like 5 years from now?”
An infinite sets of questions each moment.
Yet, when it comes to spotting macro trends
people fail with their predictions
90% of the time.
Why ?
Well, one thing you will notice right from the start is that people are extremely quick at forming opinions on things.
We all use this mechanism, which is known as "survival mode”.
In the savannah, our ancestors life depended on their accuracy and velocity of thinking.
It was life and death differentiating a plant from a predator.
But many individuals remain at this levels forever.
Constantly in the savannah,
not giving enough time of thinking to themselves.
And when we try to imagine how the future will look like, forming opinions fast without knowing the full picture will be counterproductive.
Yet, even a bigger reason people fail to understand the future is because it goes beyond their knowledge. If someone does not have the optimal information source or isn’t able to be teachable, he will have a distorted view on the world. It’s what happens when people refute considering any alternative ideas to current problems and blindly follow what the majority does. In short, group thinking.
Good. Now that we know two major motives people fail at predictions, we can focus our attention on the future of crypto.
What will happen in 2022 and beyond in a crypto finial system ?
Lots of things...
1. Bubble
Right now there are approximately 18,000 cryptocurrencies.
THOUSANDS OF THEM.
Crypto investors all have their preferred ones and give everyone many arguments why their preferred coin is special, an undervalued gem or the next big thing. But is it really so ? Of course not.
It can’t be, as quantity does not equal quality.
If tomorrow 10,000 car companies created a car, it will INEVITABLY come out a few winners among them.
The BEST will always conquer the market.
Why then people think the new crypto finial system will have have hundreds of successfull cryptocurrencies ? Because this will fulfil their desire in the present moment, which is to become rich. But the world does not work according to our desires.
The world works according to efficiency and adaptation.
What’s able to resolve problems easily better than anything else will thrive. What doesn’t will fail. And that’s the case with more than 90% of the crypto market.
After 13 years of development, we have thousands of crypto systems that are practically unusable. In many cases the current technology is far superior to it. Of course, but that does not apply to the 1%. The Amazon, Google and Apple of crypto will emerge out from the bubble bloodbath into the new financial system and it is likely they are going to be even bigger than them!
Innovation exists, but it’s rare.
The bubble phase for crypto is coming soon you don’t want to be int 98% category that will fail.
2. The Main Winner Will Be Something New.
It happens often for people to see success as an improvement of past technology.
Blackberry was better than the previous generations of phones, but it wasn’t something new. iPhone was. When we look at crypto, the same thing will happen.
The most innovative and biggest winners of tomorrow will be something completely new, that expands and extends the best characteristics of the blockchain while minimising its greatest weaknesses.
3. Crypto Will Be Much Easier To Use.
The experience of using crypto protocols today is awful most of the time.
If you type wrong one letter for sending them you will lose it all forever. In addition gas fees, sending times and security is terrible for many protocols. Will it stay so forever ? Not until an important upgrade is made.
Remember first iteration of any technology is always imperfect.
The first computer, the first phone, the first prototype of any technology has the general idea incorporated inside them, but it hasn’t the performance.
Performance comes with time.
Only systems that provide all the features of the old system plus brand new features achieve mass adoption.The new technology has some advantages but too many disadvantages to really make it with the wider world and replace the old technology.
Think about the inheritance problem. What will happen to the families of people that suddenly died without sharing their keys and now their wallets are gone forever ? They will inherit nothing. Is it that feasible for a monetary technology ? Never.
So for crypto to really take off it will have to implement in the future, among many others things, algorithmic programs of the controls we have now for giving money to people we want and keeping it out of the hands of people who want to rob us. That will change in time once crypto will get pass the rudimentary and experimental stage is currently in.
4. Similar Technologies To Blockchain Will Appear
Blockchain is the first and main protocol of crypto, but it isn’t the only way crypto can work on.
People are already creating new one like Hashgraph or IOTA’s Tangle and that’s just the beginning.
Over the years there will be many similar distributed consensus protocols able to that surpass Visa level processing by miles with the help of artificial intelligence systems.
MANY OF THESE SYSTEMS, PERHAPS NONE, WILL BE DESIGNED BY HUMANS.
AI will manage to create systems no human could have ever invented.
During these protocols competition between different AI’s, there will be one or two of these system that will come to dominate all coins and become the alfa-system to rule them all, uniting many different kinds of cryptocurrencies and running the entire system like a fractal pattern that incorporates countless of networks inside of it.
5. Blockchain will be used for good, but also evil things.
Fire is a neutral object.
It is neither good or bad. It depends for what you use it. Same applies to blockchain.
There are bad actors in the current system, which will not miss the opportunity to further imprint their control over society. They will use blockchain for tracking of all aspects of your life, from where you go and what you do, to statistical predictions about your behaviour, as well as behavioral algorithms designed to incentivize you to conform to an ideology, and even kill you.
Sounds extreme, but it’s nothing new.
If I learned something from history is that the majority never learns anything from it.
Same mistakes will be repeated again.
If the Internet has taught us anything it’s that open systems tend towards centralization and given enough time central powers can and will subvert and corrupt any system to their own ends. Crypto can be a step forward, but if people stay ignorant as in the past the technology designed to improve the world will be instead a digital prison created for them.
6. The Economic World of Today Will Look Like The Middle Age.
A hundred years from now, todays economies will looks like the feudal ones of the past.
The next step in the evolution of the monetary system will involve for the first time in history a non human participation.
If you think deeply, crypto is not a monetary system for humans. It’s made for machines.
Machine to machine communications though smart contracts and algorithmic computations in milliseconds, without the necessity of any human.
How will this impact us ?
Thanks for reading everything. If you enjoyed it it don't forget to like and comment to let me know what you think.
See you soon!
King