Bitcoin, since its creation, is globally gaining in value more than any other comparable asset class. Late 2011, one bitcoin was traded at $3 ; now it's over $2700 which represents a +90 000% performance.
What is even more remarkable about this crypto-currency is its price pattern. It is evolving in exponential phases, then consolidates slowly. Four major sequences can be spotted easily, and they are described on the main chart of this article. Nevertheless there are many more sub-sequences that are also exponential.
The current upside phase is certainly the most impressing because Bitcoin pushed over $1000 and $2000, and seems on track to reach $3000 soon, if not this week. If prices repeat the past magnitude (x17), then Bitcoin could reach 3400$ before declining gently for a consolidation. But it is also different from the previous runs : it lasts longer (6 months for phases II and III ; over 2 years for current phase IV). Is it a sign of strength, or the opposite ?
I personally have only little doubts that crypto-currency will become soon or later one of the leading asset classes for investment but also trading purposes on everyday life. However, it is possible that Bitcoin won't be that currency : it seems reasonable to think that an alternative one could take the lead before the real takeoff for many reasons (from marketing, trend effect, or practical specification that make bitcoin obsolete. What I also believe is that this kind of scenario can be identified from price analysis, even though bitcoin should be studied a different way.
This article is nothing but an open discussion, thus I invite anyone who has analysis and views about bitcoin and more generally crypto-currencies to share their contribution below.
What is even more remarkable about this crypto-currency is its price pattern. It is evolving in exponential phases, then consolidates slowly. Four major sequences can be spotted easily, and they are described on the main chart of this article. Nevertheless there are many more sub-sequences that are also exponential.
The current upside phase is certainly the most impressing because Bitcoin pushed over $1000 and $2000, and seems on track to reach $3000 soon, if not this week. If prices repeat the past magnitude (x17), then Bitcoin could reach 3400$ before declining gently for a consolidation. But it is also different from the previous runs : it lasts longer (6 months for phases II and III ; over 2 years for current phase IV). Is it a sign of strength, or the opposite ?
I personally have only little doubts that crypto-currency will become soon or later one of the leading asset classes for investment but also trading purposes on everyday life. However, it is possible that Bitcoin won't be that currency : it seems reasonable to think that an alternative one could take the lead before the real takeoff for many reasons (from marketing, trend effect, or practical specification that make bitcoin obsolete. What I also believe is that this kind of scenario can be identified from price analysis, even though bitcoin should be studied a different way.
This article is nothing but an open discussion, thus I invite anyone who has analysis and views about bitcoin and more generally crypto-currencies to share their contribution below.