This is a update to my idea "Bull trap? Return to normal OR Return to mean", linked at the bottom.
I have been watching the Weekly of Bitcoin. I am following up on a previous idea, where I was looking out for bitcoin to fall below the 50 week MA, which happened last week. Assuming bitcoin is continuing a downtrend to 4900 these are some potential bounce points that I think a lot of traders are eye balling.
I expect there to be some reaction to 6500 - 6900. I am not confident that we can get back past 7600-7800 area as a lot of speculating bulls got trapped during the breakout of the downward trendline. There's probably a lot of selling pressure from folks looking to exit recent bad positions at around 8200 and above.
I did some basic fundamental analysis of crypto. Here are the top 3 coins as of writing (I ignore XRP), and the amount of 'new money' required to enter the market each week to cover the new coins added to the supply.
BTC $89,460,000
ETH $73,500,000
BCH $11,340,000
So to cover the number of new coins from the top 3, $174,300,000 of new money needs to be pumped into the market every week. At the moment, I personally think this figure sounds way too high which is why the bear market has continued and dropped below the 50MA. The is exasperated with the fact a lot of money is flowing to other crypto like EOS and ERC Tokens rather that BTC.
I am expecting BTC to bounce back up to the 50MA. This coincides with the fib at around 7600 - 7800 and maybe a cross over of the 20/50 MA. This could be too much resistance at that level for BTC to go much higher.
I have been watching the Weekly of Bitcoin. I am following up on a previous idea, where I was looking out for bitcoin to fall below the 50 week MA, which happened last week. Assuming bitcoin is continuing a downtrend to 4900 these are some potential bounce points that I think a lot of traders are eye balling.
I expect there to be some reaction to 6500 - 6900. I am not confident that we can get back past 7600-7800 area as a lot of speculating bulls got trapped during the breakout of the downward trendline. There's probably a lot of selling pressure from folks looking to exit recent bad positions at around 8200 and above.
I did some basic fundamental analysis of crypto. Here are the top 3 coins as of writing (I ignore XRP), and the amount of 'new money' required to enter the market each week to cover the new coins added to the supply.
BTC $89,460,000
ETH $73,500,000
BCH $11,340,000
So to cover the number of new coins from the top 3, $174,300,000 of new money needs to be pumped into the market every week. At the moment, I personally think this figure sounds way too high which is why the bear market has continued and dropped below the 50MA. The is exasperated with the fact a lot of money is flowing to other crypto like EOS and ERC Tokens rather that BTC.
I am expecting BTC to bounce back up to the 50MA. This coincides with the fib at around 7600 - 7800 and maybe a cross over of the 20/50 MA. This could be too much resistance at that level for BTC to go much higher.
