Hello Friends, Hello Traders!
Boy am I kicking myself today. It was obvious all along! No idea why I hedged. We had the analysis just right! But I feel the need to revise the ghost bars to reflect where we are.
I was unsure which part of the cycle we were at, but that now has become clear. So, I've pulled back the projection pattern to reflect the truth.
This chart here is the best yet. Very similar to my last post linked below, simply moved a bit and split into three to show what's going on.
Where are we?
So we are in the FINAL DAYS of Bitcoin's correction from 20k.
We outlined in the last chart, that this cycle is averaging about 30% faster, meaning phase 3 of 3 should be about 186 days, or exactly six months (70% of 265d, the length of 2016 phase III). Keep in mind I posted that BEFORE THE DROP. We got EXACTLY what I was looking for, the confirmation of the broken fractal - NEARLY TO THE EXACT DAY CALCULATED BY EXTRAPOLATING THE DATA FROM PHASE I (20k --> 6150).
What happens now?
We're not out of the woods yet. Now, first off, my private scripts posted a buy signal on the 12H 2 days ago, and finally today we have the first buy signal on the daily since April.
We have yet to complete the 28% drop seen last time, which would put the retracement for this bear market breakout at $7250, EXACTLY A 61.8% RETRACE
Where does that leave us?
It comes down to whether or not you believe in the cyclical nature of Bitcoin. To me, it's clear. Typically, a 61.8% entry gives a Fib trader a nice target at the 127% extension of the impulse move in question. That would give us a target of 17.9K. Wait a minute, that sounds familiar! Where have we seen THAT before? OH YEAH, the MASSIVE bullish Gartley I pointed out on the H12:
In conclusion
I am looking for an entry to go long with a large position low $7k. I believe the new bottom for Bitcoin is going to be $7250
Lastly, please keep in mind that charts are just charts. Technical analysis is great but in theory you should be able to look at a naked chart on ANYTHING and be profitable if you trade properly. NONE of this is to give us a crystal ball. ANYTHING can happen in ANY market at ANY time. The market is ALWAYS right. You have to practice good Risk Reward, stop loss, protect your capital!
Good luck traders!
Boy am I kicking myself today. It was obvious all along! No idea why I hedged. We had the analysis just right! But I feel the need to revise the ghost bars to reflect where we are.
I was unsure which part of the cycle we were at, but that now has become clear. So, I've pulled back the projection pattern to reflect the truth.
This chart here is the best yet. Very similar to my last post linked below, simply moved a bit and split into three to show what's going on.
Where are we?
So we are in the FINAL DAYS of Bitcoin's correction from 20k.
We outlined in the last chart, that this cycle is averaging about 30% faster, meaning phase 3 of 3 should be about 186 days, or exactly six months (70% of 265d, the length of 2016 phase III). Keep in mind I posted that BEFORE THE DROP. We got EXACTLY what I was looking for, the confirmation of the broken fractal - NEARLY TO THE EXACT DAY CALCULATED BY EXTRAPOLATING THE DATA FROM PHASE I (20k --> 6150).
What happens now?
We're not out of the woods yet. Now, first off, my private scripts posted a buy signal on the 12H 2 days ago, and finally today we have the first buy signal on the daily since April.
We have yet to complete the 28% drop seen last time, which would put the retracement for this bear market breakout at $7250, EXACTLY A 61.8% RETRACE
Where does that leave us?
It comes down to whether or not you believe in the cyclical nature of Bitcoin. To me, it's clear. Typically, a 61.8% entry gives a Fib trader a nice target at the 127% extension of the impulse move in question. That would give us a target of 17.9K. Wait a minute, that sounds familiar! Where have we seen THAT before? OH YEAH, the MASSIVE bullish Gartley I pointed out on the H12:
In conclusion
I am looking for an entry to go long with a large position low $7k. I believe the new bottom for Bitcoin is going to be $7250
Lastly, please keep in mind that charts are just charts. Technical analysis is great but in theory you should be able to look at a naked chart on ANYTHING and be profitable if you trade properly. NONE of this is to give us a crystal ball. ANYTHING can happen in ANY market at ANY time. The market is ALWAYS right. You have to practice good Risk Reward, stop loss, protect your capital!
Good luck traders!
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7250 might now happen but who knows., looks somewhat positive here but I'd much rather we go down further so we can rebound much harder breaking the bottom Fib MA
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Seems like the momentum just isn't there for the bulls, really would like to see one more good sell off to kick off a proper rally.
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I'm not gonna name any names but I think it's really cute when top authors like my charts and 2 hours later post something strikingly similar. It's not really a huge deal because unlike some here I will never sell signals, TA, anything. I'm a trader, not a salesman. I do this to help others and everything I post is what I'm actually thinking and doing. I have no need to make money by charging noobs for access to signals from which they never learn.
Be careful with these tradingview hotshots and remember that any time you see "premium" next to someone's name it's almost a sure bet they're trying to sell something here. Pro+ is barely justifyable against regular pro and the only reason I went blue is because I have two trading stations up now.
All this to say I appreciate every like, follow, and comment as I do spend a lot of extra time on these charts trying to make them easier to understand for other people.
Be careful with these tradingview hotshots and remember that any time you see "premium" next to someone's name it's almost a sure bet they're trying to sell something here. Pro+ is barely justifyable against regular pro and the only reason I went blue is because I have two trading stations up now.
All this to say I appreciate every like, follow, and comment as I do spend a lot of extra time on these charts trying to make them easier to understand for other people.
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It's definitely starting to look like we may have bottomed already.
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Just fighting around 8k still, looked promising last night but the longer we stay around here the more likely we drop
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maybe 7500 instead of 7250?
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starting to gain a bit of confidence that we bottomed here, very good that we got away from 8k a bit, as you can see we broke a swing high on the hourly so that's good
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I did take a small long from 8200, have take profit set at 8540 because its still not super clear but I'll probably let it ride as long as I'm awake
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BTC seems so bearish but looking at this it really makes sense
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perfect call.
