2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave): Symmetrical Triangle
Since the 6425 (Bitfinex) low set on 01-APR-2018, the Bitcoin market has rallied 50% to retrace a Fibonacci 61.8% of the downtrend wave from 05-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018.
Prior to the rally, the downtrend wave from 05-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018 came within 95% of the low set on 06-FEB-2018, but failed to exceed it.
It appears converging price action in the Bitcoin market is undergoing a large Symmetrical Triangle formation since the 06-FEB-2018 low.
In regards to the internals of Symmetrical Triangle formation:
—wave-a: Rallied 95% from the 06-FEB to 05-MAR, retracing a 50% Fibonacci of the downtrend wave that began on 06-JAN.
—wave-b: Declined 45% from 05-MAR to 01-APR, retracing a 95% of wave-a.
—wave-c: Rallied 50% from 01-APR to 25-APR, retracing a Fibonacci 61.8% of wave-b at 9767 and thus far appears complete.
If wave-c subdivides, additional upside targets as follows:
1. @9946: 50% Fibonacci retracement of entire Bitcoin market.
2. @10571: 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of wave-b.
However, should wave-c be complete, it would suggest the entire Symmetrical Triangle forms beneath the psychological 10,000 level.
There are two further waves required to complete the Symmetrical Triangle pattern. Given the converging price action trendlines of the triangle, the following are projections for the two outstanding legs:
—wave-d: Currently underway since 25-APR. Expected to decline and retrace at least a Fibonacci 78.6% of wave-c towards 7140. Converging trendlines of the Symmetrical Triangle would suggest a 30% decline to approx 6750.
—wave-e: The final leg of the Symmetrical Triangle pattern, and the shortest. Expected to retrace between a Fibonacci 61.8% to 78.6% of wave-d, rallying approx 35% towards 8590 to 9100.
The converging trendlines suggest the Symmetrical Triangle pattern ought to complete by mid-May to early-Jun. At which point, the bear market is expected to resume towards 4257 which marks a Fibonacci 78.6% retracement of the entire Bitcoin market.
Speculative and guesswork Elliott Wave model indicative of price and structure not time, as follows:
BTC (4-hr): i.imgur.com/biQGkBl.png
BTC (Weekly): i.imgur.com/YEIpfAP.png
BTC (Daily): i.imgur.com/bMFFP3S.png
Since the 6425 (Bitfinex) low set on 01-APR-2018, the Bitcoin market has rallied 50% to retrace a Fibonacci 61.8% of the downtrend wave from 05-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018.
Prior to the rally, the downtrend wave from 05-MAR-2018 to 01-APR-2018 came within 95% of the low set on 06-FEB-2018, but failed to exceed it.
It appears converging price action in the Bitcoin market is undergoing a large Symmetrical Triangle formation since the 06-FEB-2018 low.
In regards to the internals of Symmetrical Triangle formation:
—wave-a: Rallied 95% from the 06-FEB to 05-MAR, retracing a 50% Fibonacci of the downtrend wave that began on 06-JAN.
—wave-b: Declined 45% from 05-MAR to 01-APR, retracing a 95% of wave-a.
—wave-c: Rallied 50% from 01-APR to 25-APR, retracing a Fibonacci 61.8% of wave-b at 9767 and thus far appears complete.
If wave-c subdivides, additional upside targets as follows:
1. @9946: 50% Fibonacci retracement of entire Bitcoin market.
2. @10571: 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of wave-b.
However, should wave-c be complete, it would suggest the entire Symmetrical Triangle forms beneath the psychological 10,000 level.
There are two further waves required to complete the Symmetrical Triangle pattern. Given the converging price action trendlines of the triangle, the following are projections for the two outstanding legs:
—wave-d: Currently underway since 25-APR. Expected to decline and retrace at least a Fibonacci 78.6% of wave-c towards 7140. Converging trendlines of the Symmetrical Triangle would suggest a 30% decline to approx 6750.
—wave-e: The final leg of the Symmetrical Triangle pattern, and the shortest. Expected to retrace between a Fibonacci 61.8% to 78.6% of wave-d, rallying approx 35% towards 8590 to 9100.
The converging trendlines suggest the Symmetrical Triangle pattern ought to complete by mid-May to early-Jun. At which point, the bear market is expected to resume towards 4257 which marks a Fibonacci 78.6% retracement of the entire Bitcoin market.
Speculative and guesswork Elliott Wave model indicative of price and structure not time, as follows:
BTC (4-hr): i.imgur.com/biQGkBl.png
BTC (Weekly): i.imgur.com/YEIpfAP.png
BTC (Daily): i.imgur.com/bMFFP3S.png
