I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to get my complete trading strategy and click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
1 day: Very surprised we didn’t retest $6,000 after ETF’s were denied | 1 week: $6,000 retest | 1 month predictions: < $5,000 by 9/5 (will probably need to adjust) | bottom prediction: $3,000 by 10/30
Previous analysis/position: Bearish daily candle, quick rejection from $6,800 and expected ETF rejection gave me very high confidence in a $6,000 retest leading to an eventual breakdown of $5,750 / Short ADA:BTC | ETH:USD | ETH:BTC
Patterns: Descending triangle + bear flag. Many are labeling this as a head and shoulders. I do not see it that way for the following reasons: I like to trade h&s as a bearish reversal pattern. I would not expect the current bear trend to reverse on a bearish pattern. I am expecting the trend to continue and labeling it as a bear flag continuation pattern makes more sense to me. Furthermore I learned from @PeterLBrandt that h&s’s should not have significant price work to the left of the pattern. This is why he did not call for a h&s in the S&P recently even though everything else was textbook.
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,275 | R: $6,575
BTCUSDSHORTS: Hanging man candle at resistance. Current candle is trying to rally. If it breaks through 39,850 then HM would be invalidated. If breakdown below 35,812 then HM confirmed.
Funding Rates: Shorts pay longs 0.0446%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 is currently being tested for resistance | 26 = -3%
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = -6.79% | 128 = -13.31%
Volume: Yesterday was well above MA, which indicates buyers stepping up (more likely shorts covering) and there being ample supply to satisfy all of the demand. Indicates that $6,900 should be strong resistance moving forward.
FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,508 | 0.5 = $5,882
Candlestick analysis: Daily shooting star vs weekly hammer. Current weekly candle is forming a doji.
Ichimoku Cloud: Acting as resistance on yesterday’s squeeze. Tenkan-Sen moving down quickly, will it be the new resistance at $6,650?
TD’ Sequential: Red 3 on weekly. Red 4 on daily. Red 2 on 12h.
Visible Range: Low volume nodes from $6,535 to $6,650 with 1d lookback. POC over last 6 months = $6,375
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = -0.43% | 24h = -0.4% | 1w = +2.21% | 2w = +4.87% | 1m = -12.77%
Bollinger Bands: Daily is squeezing quickly. Yesterday briefly broke through MA, current candle is testing it for resistance.
Trendline: Bear flag
Daily Trend: Chop
Fractals: 2 up = $6,640 | down = $6,249
On Balance Volume: Following price w no noticeable divs’
ADX: Will be watching the daily closely. ADX is pulling back quickly following +DI making bullish cross with -DI.
Chaikin Money Flow: Still showing massive div’ in weekly. Testing prior support for resistance. If it can break 0.15 that would be very bullish.
RSI (30 setting): W = 48.81 | D = 45.88
Stoch: Attempt to re cross from yesterday did not amount to anything.
Conclusion: “Bear markets end when they stops selling off on bad news.”
I am not sure who said this but it has been in my mind since yesterday. We sold off hard on the last ETF rejection. This time all 5 ETF’s were rejected and the price hasn’t flinched.
Theory 1: Traders were buying the hype of the last ETF announcement and when the denial came out the price was overbought and needed to correct. This time nobody really expected the ETF to pass and there was no hype to buy into.
Theory 2: Sellers are becoming exhausted and bulls are gaining confidence in the support at $5,750 - $6,000. Bitcoin does not need an ETF in order to go on another bull run. Short sellers are at/near their ATH’. Holding support after bad news could cause bulls to gain more confidence and could cause bears to capitulate after a short squeeze.
If this is the bottom then I firmly believe that we are in for 3+ months more consolidation between $6,000 - $8,000. Still holding onto my bearish stance and short positions. Tightening stops and taking profit on 20% has me feeling comfortable.
If not in a position then I would still say that shorting alt's vs BTC' is the best bet. If wanted to trade BTC' then I would suggest looking at yesterday's post where i outlined entries for the bear flag.
1 day: Very surprised we didn’t retest $6,000 after ETF’s were denied | 1 week: $6,000 retest | 1 month predictions: < $5,000 by 9/5 (will probably need to adjust) | bottom prediction: $3,000 by 10/30
Previous analysis/position: Bearish daily candle, quick rejection from $6,800 and expected ETF rejection gave me very high confidence in a $6,000 retest leading to an eventual breakdown of $5,750 / Short ADA:BTC | ETH:USD | ETH:BTC
Patterns: Descending triangle + bear flag. Many are labeling this as a head and shoulders. I do not see it that way for the following reasons: I like to trade h&s as a bearish reversal pattern. I would not expect the current bear trend to reverse on a bearish pattern. I am expecting the trend to continue and labeling it as a bear flag continuation pattern makes more sense to me. Furthermore I learned from @PeterLBrandt that h&s’s should not have significant price work to the left of the pattern. This is why he did not call for a h&s in the S&P recently even though everything else was textbook.
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,275 | R: $6,575
BTCUSDSHORTS: Hanging man candle at resistance. Current candle is trying to rally. If it breaks through 39,850 then HM would be invalidated. If breakdown below 35,812 then HM confirmed.
Funding Rates: Shorts pay longs 0.0446%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 is currently being tested for resistance | 26 = -3%
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = -6.79% | 128 = -13.31%
Volume: Yesterday was well above MA, which indicates buyers stepping up (more likely shorts covering) and there being ample supply to satisfy all of the demand. Indicates that $6,900 should be strong resistance moving forward.
FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,508 | 0.5 = $5,882
Candlestick analysis: Daily shooting star vs weekly hammer. Current weekly candle is forming a doji.
Ichimoku Cloud: Acting as resistance on yesterday’s squeeze. Tenkan-Sen moving down quickly, will it be the new resistance at $6,650?
TD’ Sequential: Red 3 on weekly. Red 4 on daily. Red 2 on 12h.
Visible Range: Low volume nodes from $6,535 to $6,650 with 1d lookback. POC over last 6 months = $6,375
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = -0.43% | 24h = -0.4% | 1w = +2.21% | 2w = +4.87% | 1m = -12.77%
Bollinger Bands: Daily is squeezing quickly. Yesterday briefly broke through MA, current candle is testing it for resistance.
Trendline: Bear flag
Daily Trend: Chop
Fractals: 2 up = $6,640 | down = $6,249
On Balance Volume: Following price w no noticeable divs’
ADX: Will be watching the daily closely. ADX is pulling back quickly following +DI making bullish cross with -DI.
Chaikin Money Flow: Still showing massive div’ in weekly. Testing prior support for resistance. If it can break 0.15 that would be very bullish.
RSI (30 setting): W = 48.81 | D = 45.88
Stoch: Attempt to re cross from yesterday did not amount to anything.
Conclusion: “Bear markets end when they stops selling off on bad news.”
I am not sure who said this but it has been in my mind since yesterday. We sold off hard on the last ETF rejection. This time all 5 ETF’s were rejected and the price hasn’t flinched.
Theory 1: Traders were buying the hype of the last ETF announcement and when the denial came out the price was overbought and needed to correct. This time nobody really expected the ETF to pass and there was no hype to buy into.
Theory 2: Sellers are becoming exhausted and bulls are gaining confidence in the support at $5,750 - $6,000. Bitcoin does not need an ETF in order to go on another bull run. Short sellers are at/near their ATH’. Holding support after bad news could cause bulls to gain more confidence and could cause bears to capitulate after a short squeeze.
If this is the bottom then I firmly believe that we are in for 3+ months more consolidation between $6,000 - $8,000. Still holding onto my bearish stance and short positions. Tightening stops and taking profit on 20% has me feeling comfortable.
If not in a position then I would still say that shorting alt's vs BTC' is the best bet. If wanted to trade BTC' then I would suggest looking at yesterday's post where i outlined entries for the bear flag.
emasar Indicator is available for purchase at alphanalysis.io/product/emasar/