BTC just broke out upwards of the triangle it had formed for more than a week in a boring way.
This favors one of the countless Elliott counts out there, as shown in chart :
What can we expect next in this bullish scenario ?
Bearish scenario invalidating this count :
While yesterday I could find an Elliott count for this incoming bearish ((C)) wave, the convincing break of 4100 resistance makes me discard it now. All lights are now green in my opinion towards a 4800-5100 target, before any more downtrend. Moreover, ETH already made its bullish move, followed by LTC, and I consider that BTC is just lagging behind and starting its real impulse now.
Therefore, I am now in a full and confident long position from 4076. I plan to take partial profit around last high in the 4400 area, and close position once I count the end of purple ((3)) wave, regardless of price. Stop-loss is presently a forgiving 3879 (bottom of blue wave 2).
If I'm available during green (4) retracement, I will consider the possibility of scalping it cautiously. Purple wave ((4)) retracement would be a much more profitable scalping opportunity before riding purple ((5)) for the last bull run in a long time...
Even though I can't picture a huge dump in the coming week, I'll be checking price action frequently and raise my stop-loss as often as possible as a safety measure. Bullish january is not a crypto habit, and the usually correlated stocks are still in crash mode despite the christmas gift recovery presently followed by the crypto market.
Happy trading !
This favors one of the countless Elliott counts out there, as shown in chart :
- First bull move was a purple ((12345)) impulse, and a neat one
- Textbook red ((ABC)) retracement to 0.618 followed it
- Next steps got messy and made most of us rethink our count...
- Purple ((1)) and ((2)) stayed in a narrow 3700-4100 range
- Start of purple ((3)) involved green (1) and (2), narrowing the range to 3800-4100
- Start of green (3) made bulls shaky with blue 1 and 2 narrowing the range even further
What can we expect next in this bullish scenario ?
- Completion of blue impulse probably leads us to a retest of 4400
- Next comes green (4) retracement, probably to confirm former 4100 resistance as a new support
- Green (5) would be the wave not to miss : enter full long position upon confirmation of a 4100ish higher low
- This would complete a purple ((3)), which leads to a retracement somewhere in the 4100 vincinity. Short scalp available here.
- of purple impulse leads us to 5100 area, where it would meet daily resistance in play since ATH and the daily 200 SMA
- This would complete a higher level ABC correction of december 2018 dump to yearly low.
- Finally comes a retest of the lower 3k range, which will decide 2019 mood.
Bearish scenario invalidating this count :
- today's bull candle is part of a huge bear flag and finishes a red ((B)) wave somehow
- next step is the red bearish ((C)) wave leading us to a very bearish mood for 2019
While yesterday I could find an Elliott count for this incoming bearish ((C)) wave, the convincing break of 4100 resistance makes me discard it now. All lights are now green in my opinion towards a 4800-5100 target, before any more downtrend. Moreover, ETH already made its bullish move, followed by LTC, and I consider that BTC is just lagging behind and starting its real impulse now.
Therefore, I am now in a full and confident long position from 4076. I plan to take partial profit around last high in the 4400 area, and close position once I count the end of purple ((3)) wave, regardless of price. Stop-loss is presently a forgiving 3879 (bottom of blue wave 2).
If I'm available during green (4) retracement, I will consider the possibility of scalping it cautiously. Purple wave ((4)) retracement would be a much more profitable scalping opportunity before riding purple ((5)) for the last bull run in a long time...
Even though I can't picture a huge dump in the coming week, I'll be checking price action frequently and raise my stop-loss as often as possible as a safety measure. Bullish january is not a crypto habit, and the usually correlated stocks are still in crash mode despite the christmas gift recovery presently followed by the crypto market.
Happy trading !
Trade active:
So far, BTC seems to be retracing in a symmetrical triangle and previous Elliott count is still valid. I am waiting for the end of a green (3) wave above 4218 to close my long position and consider a short scalp.
The wick retesting today the 4218 high makes me worry about a possible failed fifth wave, so I took partial profit already and moved up my stop. Apart from this, nothing changed.
The wick retesting today the 4218 high makes me worry about a possible failed fifth wave, so I took partial profit already and moved up my stop. Apart from this, nothing changed.