Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge
Consensio: P < S MA < M MA < L MA = fully bearish (current candle is testing S MA)
Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave | Bear channel
Horizontals: $3,478 provided the preliminary support on November 25 and the last few days have been threatening to turn it into resistance
Trendline: Channel
Parabolic SAR: Differs significantly based on exchange. Bistamp at $3,500 is most important to me.
Futures Curve: Backwardation with 2.5% spread
BTCUSDSHORTS: Pumping right through a G9
Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.0351%
TD’ Sequential: R6
Ichimoku Cloud: Look at how well the Tenkan-Sen is acting as resistance. Beautiful!
Relative Strength Index: Testing trend resistance
Average Directional Index: Crossed 20 indicating bear trend. Watch for confirmation with a cross above 25.
Price Action: 24h: +2.1% | 2w: -3.4% | 1m: -5.9%
Bollinger Bands: Resuming squeeze which indicates to me that the selloff on the 19th was a trap
Stochastic Oscillator: Daily buy signal. 3D still pulling back. Weekly posturing for buy.
Summary: The market is at a rather crucial spot and longs are starting to look very appealing. If we can close back above $3,500 then that would signal for me to start scaling in. On the other hand a close below the MA of my channel (~$3,325) would be very bearish.
The Bitcoin Market Cap dominance is very interesting to me right now as well. Since the summer of 2017 BTC has found strong resistance at 60% dominance and currently appears to be forming a descending triangle.
A breakdown from here would be likely to retest 40%. On the other hand if we could manage to return back above 60% then a return to 80% would be very likely. This is all right in line with the two options I am expecting from here.
My most likely outcome is one last dead cat bounce from here to fill the gap in the VRVP in the $5,200 - $5,800 area. If that happens market cap dominance will likely fall back to 40% while alts pump even harder. Then the rug gets pulled out from under and the market flies back to safety during capitulation.
My slightly less likely outcome is breaking down $3,000 from here and capitulating over the following weeks - months. I remain resolute that would be the quickest way to find a bottom. Flight to safety occurs during capitulation pushing BTC market dominance back to 80%+ and sending alts down the toilet where they belong.
Still too early to make a confident call either way. Time to remain on the sidelines and wait for more information.
Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge
Consensio: P < S MA < M MA < L MA = fully bearish (current candle is testing S MA)
Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave | Bear channel
Horizontals: $3,478 provided the preliminary support on November 25 and the last few days have been threatening to turn it into resistance
Trendline: Channel
Parabolic SAR: Differs significantly based on exchange. Bistamp at $3,500 is most important to me.
Futures Curve: Backwardation with 2.5% spread
BTCUSDSHORTS: Pumping right through a G9
Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.0351%
TD’ Sequential: R6
Ichimoku Cloud: Look at how well the Tenkan-Sen is acting as resistance. Beautiful!
Relative Strength Index: Testing trend resistance
Average Directional Index: Crossed 20 indicating bear trend. Watch for confirmation with a cross above 25.
Price Action: 24h: +2.1% | 2w: -3.4% | 1m: -5.9%
Bollinger Bands: Resuming squeeze which indicates to me that the selloff on the 19th was a trap
Stochastic Oscillator: Daily buy signal. 3D still pulling back. Weekly posturing for buy.
Summary: The market is at a rather crucial spot and longs are starting to look very appealing. If we can close back above $3,500 then that would signal for me to start scaling in. On the other hand a close below the MA of my channel (~$3,325) would be very bearish.
The Bitcoin Market Cap dominance is very interesting to me right now as well. Since the summer of 2017 BTC has found strong resistance at 60% dominance and currently appears to be forming a descending triangle.
A breakdown from here would be likely to retest 40%. On the other hand if we could manage to return back above 60% then a return to 80% would be very likely. This is all right in line with the two options I am expecting from here.
My most likely outcome is one last dead cat bounce from here to fill the gap in the VRVP in the $5,200 - $5,800 area. If that happens market cap dominance will likely fall back to 40% while alts pump even harder. Then the rug gets pulled out from under and the market flies back to safety during capitulation.
My slightly less likely outcome is breaking down $3,000 from here and capitulating over the following weeks - months. I remain resolute that would be the quickest way to find a bottom. Flight to safety occurs during capitulation pushing BTC market dominance back to 80%+ and sending alts down the toilet where they belong.
Still too early to make a confident call either way. Time to remain on the sidelines and wait for more information.
emasar Indicator is available for purchase at alphanalysis.io/product/emasar/