I am going to go into some detail regarding what I undertstand of the market in general. So if you're up for a read thanks for sitting with me...
premise:
although ascending wedges are normally a continuation of trend pattern, sometimes they appear at market bottoms signalling a reversal. Could this be one?
The projected target of this wedge (measured by its base) puts us at 8,400. If we are just considering the smaller wedge (with the base line formed between RH1 and RL2) the target is 8,1.
Signals for bullish break:
structure of ascending wedge met
receding volume
buying pressure
accumulation steadily rising
combined depth chart buy wall strong for last 6 hours
However, for some reason I can’t refrain from being suspicious this will not break upwards.
premise:
although ascending wedges are normally a continuation of trend pattern, sometimes they appear at market bottoms signalling a reversal. Could this be one?
The projected target of this wedge (measured by its base) puts us at 8,400. If we are just considering the smaller wedge (with the base line formed between RH1 and RL2) the target is 8,1.
Signals for bullish break:
structure of ascending wedge met
receding volume
buying pressure
accumulation steadily rising
combined depth chart buy wall strong for last 6 hours
However, for some reason I can’t refrain from being suspicious this will not break upwards.
Comment:
TL:DR
regular TA says Long
my read of the market says Short
regular TA says Long
my read of the market says Short
Comment:
Looking at the 'pump' candles with raw buy/sell volume indicator.
its hard to really speculate from raw data what might be happen behind the curtain.
some notes:
1. the 4 largest red bars sum just under half the volume of the 3 largest green bars,
we can extract from this: far more buy volume has been spent in smaller instances during trend than sell volume in smaller instances during trend. Volume-wise buy pressure in overall trend has not been influenced more than these bars have spent
2. the 4th largest green bar is the only large green bar with a sizeable red bar pairing.
The corresponding candle has a large bear wick extending over resistance, presumably responsible for the red bar...
Does this support the idea the 'pumps' are bots buying or bots suddenly alleviating sell pressure on a bullish market?
Assuming bots, as representing the interests of their players, are not fighting against each other here, I think the green bar with the red pairing gives a lot away.
Either 1: one whale wanted to 'pump' but got shut down by resistance, or
2: bots let up sell pressure, bullish market fell forward overextending into resistance (sell wall). I imagine 'execute till filled' orders play a big part in these pumps.
I don't know. I really wish I had a better insight into how the tug-of-war in the order books works.
some notes:
1. the 4 largest red bars sum just under half the volume of the 3 largest green bars,
we can extract from this: far more buy volume has been spent in smaller instances during trend than sell volume in smaller instances during trend. Volume-wise buy pressure in overall trend has not been influenced more than these bars have spent
2. the 4th largest green bar is the only large green bar with a sizeable red bar pairing.
The corresponding candle has a large bear wick extending over resistance, presumably responsible for the red bar...
Does this support the idea the 'pumps' are bots buying or bots suddenly alleviating sell pressure on a bullish market?
Assuming bots, as representing the interests of their players, are not fighting against each other here, I think the green bar with the red pairing gives a lot away.
Either 1: one whale wanted to 'pump' but got shut down by resistance, or
2: bots let up sell pressure, bullish market fell forward overextending into resistance (sell wall). I imagine 'execute till filled' orders play a big part in these pumps.
I don't know. I really wish I had a better insight into how the tug-of-war in the order books works.
Comment:
also wanted to note:
3. the second and third largest buy bars correspond with green candles bouncing off support of ascending wedge. - this plays into how I mean the wedge feels dubious.
4. the second largest buy bar's corresponding candle is smaller than half the size of the third largest buy bar's corresponding candle and including the wicks (to account for their paired red bars) it is just over half the size. I believe this is responsible for some divergence in the indicators with the high of those two candle's price points, but the set of the divergence isn't enough to have significance. Still interesting though.
3. the second and third largest buy bars correspond with green candles bouncing off support of ascending wedge. - this plays into how I mean the wedge feels dubious.
4. the second largest buy bar's corresponding candle is smaller than half the size of the third largest buy bar's corresponding candle and including the wicks (to account for their paired red bars) it is just over half the size. I believe this is responsible for some divergence in the indicators with the high of those two candle's price points, but the set of the divergence isn't enough to have significance. Still interesting though.
Comment:
shit.. clear indication i've been staring at this too long:
the tallest 3 buy bars are NOT twice the size of the tallest 4 sell bars. The sell bars are 80% not 50% of the green.
the tallest 3 buy bars are NOT twice the size of the tallest 4 sell bars. The sell bars are 80% not 50% of the green.
Wedge breakout projected targets reach prices that confirm a successful bull rally from that one bounce above major support we had on the 30th of May. The automatic rally that followed was weak and patient traders will be waiting for a retest of support before going Long.
New money has already come in and this is supported by mempool data surrounding the 6th of June. Early adopter and early majority money has already entered because this bull run starting the 6th of June is very exoteric - unlike in April.
We are seeing Bart Simpson patterns, meaning whale bots have a heavier presence and controlling price more than general market trend. Why is price being suppressed then? How are whales making money keeping price inside a trading range when new money considers coming bull phase as common knowledge? Is there really a divergence between demand and incentive to short in the market? We see only a 0.8% increase in shorts over longs since 11pm UTC June 5th.
The combined depth chart buy wall may be strong but there is heavier sell volume coming into the resistance price than buy volume approaching support - though of course this is not much to go off given we’re talking BTC here.
Given the Bart Simpson pattern, the high and low bounces in the wedge are less crowd psychology representations of a real wedge. This might not matter. Though, the only two reaction highs forming this wedge did not bounce, but ran along it. To me this betrays the wedge resistance to represent a larger dynamic. A quite tangible example is the 23.6% fib retracement of the previous market top lines up exactly.
A minor theory regarding the Barts: a break up confirms we’ve left the accumulation phase of this market bottom. As we can see, and as confirmed by the OBV on every time frame but the 2hr, price action sees green spikes to keep price within the trading range, but there’s been two long red trickle downs from those ranges, both after touching resistance. These green “pumps” could be bots synchronistically relieving sell pressure, not actually pumping. This makes more sense than pumping during an accumulation TR the market is happy with. Again, this plays into the narrative the whales scalp market consensus (and the crypto market is so damn easy to read and loud online)
There’s a slight bearish divergence between those two reaction highs on the RSI. On the 1hr momentum on the accumulation (chaikin oscillator) is slowing down when buy pressure is rising. The STOCH on the 1hr and 2hr support a downward move, though a downward move might not be significant to the wedge. Saying this, there’s bullish indicators I have not provided in general they are displaying mixed signals.
The 2014 boom and bust cycle - fractal if you will - shows us one more dip breaking major support in about to happen before a bullish view on BTC can resume. I don’t know why this view, regardless of 2014 price movement, makes sense to me, both for the health of the for the game of the whales. Perhaps because the next bull phase doesn’t have any real world capacity to break out of the year’s wedge and the next bull run inside the wedge is small game to what BTC has seen recently - so we exit the wedge and build momentum from an all time low of the year. Also continuing the pattern for the 4th triangle its just too conforming, I think 3 cycles of Bull and Bear has finished this pattern. If we do break upwards to the ascending wedge’s target, I feel that’ll start a crash or very prolonged sideways movement. I can’t provide anything to back up this view.
Well, i think that’s it. I didn’t plan what I’d say to write this much. Wish I could wrap it up to a better holistic picture. Basically, I think there’s a lot going on right now and I don’t think pure TA is going to punch through this time.