Accumulation and Redistribution always looks same until one side is broken. Schematics may mislead us.
Just looking at the textbook wyckoff schematic and trying to fit it in the current price action makes no sense at all. Both accumulation and distribution can come in infinite ways.
So we should look at the rallies and declines, in our case I choose Redistribution Scenario #1 as the most probable.
Still it is mostly hard to distinguish between them.
Rallies are very weak, dumps are relatively stronger.
Supply trendline cannot be broken for weeks which is also a sign for re-distribution.
Generally, accumulation do not come just after a mark-down. It needs more pain.
GBTC premiums are negative which is a super bearish indicator also.
DXY is making a bull run which opposite correlates with BTC price often.
I opened at a short at 35.700 with low leverage since it is not very easy to predict if it is acc. or re-dist. if price goes up I will add more to my shorts.
We may see any of these scenarios, but according to wyckoff laws and past experiences, I feel like we are in re-distribution. Scenario #1 or #2 ? I am not sure. Tİme will tell.
This is not an advice.
Just looking at the textbook wyckoff schematic and trying to fit it in the current price action makes no sense at all. Both accumulation and distribution can come in infinite ways.
So we should look at the rallies and declines, in our case I choose Redistribution Scenario #1 as the most probable.
Still it is mostly hard to distinguish between them.
Rallies are very weak, dumps are relatively stronger.
Supply trendline cannot be broken for weeks which is also a sign for re-distribution.
Generally, accumulation do not come just after a mark-down. It needs more pain.
GBTC premiums are negative which is a super bearish indicator also.
DXY is making a bull run which opposite correlates with BTC price often.
I opened at a short at 35.700 with low leverage since it is not very easy to predict if it is acc. or re-dist. if price goes up I will add more to my shorts.
We may see any of these scenarios, but according to wyckoff laws and past experiences, I feel like we are in re-distribution. Scenario #1 or #2 ? I am not sure. Tİme will tell.
This is not an advice.
Comment:
A weak rally to 33k with decreasing volume. Scenario#1 probablilty is getting stronger
Comment:
Probably just another LPSY
Comment:
volume shows this is re-distribution or I will study from the beginning: )
Comment:
this was obviously an accumulation and volumes made me choose the wrong side. volatility was getting smaller by time it was a hint for accumulation. but bias made me not able to see and accept that. good lesson.
