Bitcoin Daily Update (day 232)

I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

My most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following predictions: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my call for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018.

Previous analysis / position: Needed some time off after getting stopped out on ETH’ short. Talked about importance of controlling emotions / Short USDT:USD for 0.0968
Patterns: Descending triangle / button top
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,361 | $6,454
BTCUSDSHORTS: 3 straight red candles after creating lower high.
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01%
Short term trend (4 day MA): Today’s candle closed above but was a shooting start off the button top and the current candle is back below
Medium term trend (4 week MA): This weeks candle failed to close above 4 MA and closed a shooting star
Long term trend ( 32 Week): Hasn’t been tested since May
Overall trend: Bearish
Volume: Record high volume came on Feb 5th’s candle (weekly). If weekly close below that low ($5,995) then that huge volume will start closing their position which should cause the next leg down to $4,200 where the next high volume node waits on the VRVP.
FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,530 | 0.5 = $6,441 | 0.382 = $6,351
Candlestick analysis: 12h - 1w shooting stars are painting the same picture
Ichimoku Cloud: 4h cloud is as thin as it gets. 1h cloud has thinned out and current candle dipped below it, although it wicked right back inside.
TD’ Sequential: Weekly red 3 | If daily close > $6,400 then it will price flip | 12h close < $6,426 it will price flip | 4H: Red 2 < red 1 however TDST level at $6,380
Visible Range: Looking back to September 6th (when this range started) point of control at $6,400 and two high volume nodes from $6,386 - $6,464
Price action: 24h: -0.82% | 2w: -2.88% | 1m: -4.87%
Bollinger Bands: Continues to resist daily MA
Trendline: Top of descending triangle = $6,636
Daily Trend: Chop
Fractals: Up: $6,792 | Down: $6,057
RSI: 1h entering oversold territory
Stochastic: 4h just had a sell signal and 1h is posturing for a buy

Summary: I finally abandoned my call from September 5th which was for $2,860 by 10/31. I wanted to make sure that I didn’t underestimate how fast this thing can/will move after it breaks from the triangle and therefore I wanted to hold onto that call for as long as possible.

Now we are at the point where I have to go with my most recent bubble comparison which called for $2,718 by 1/20/19. Calls that do not include a time frame have little value imo. You can be right about direction, but if you are wrong about time then are wrong. Calling for the price to go down in a bear market or up in a bull market is not that difficult.

However combining time and price is extremely difficult. That is one of the reasons that ~90% of options expire worthless. I don’t think that I will end up be wrong on my price prediction for the bottom, but I was wrong on the timeframe and therefore I was wrong. Furthermore I lost money because I was making trades based on my calls.

This has been a tremendous learning experience for me and I hope it has been for you as well! The chart posted today is an approximation of how I expect the price action to proceed from here. Sideways and painful while support continues to grind away and resistance starts moving down once again. I am going to continue to wait on the sidelines and will contemplate a huge no trade zone from ~$6,000 - $8,000.