This is a pretty compelling bear case for Bitcoin right now. Macro head and shoulders on weekly chart. Price could retrace to bottom of the ascending channel. That will be a huge price test. If it fails, we could see a retracement back to the 200 VWAP which happens to coincide with/around the last cycle's prior high. That would be a great are to accumulate more as the price of Bitcoin has historically rallied back quickly to the 200 VWAP. It would also make the chart look a bit more like previous cycles as well.
More importantly though is comparing it to the $DXY chart. This is super interesting as it coincides very well with the current $DXY value within its local symmetrical wedge. If the $DXY breaks out of that wedge, it will likely make a strong run to ~$108.
Not 100% convicted in this but it's curious and is worth keeping an eye on over the next few weeks/months.
More importantly though is comparing it to the $DXY chart. This is super interesting as it coincides very well with the current $DXY value within its local symmetrical wedge. If the $DXY breaks out of that wedge, it will likely make a strong run to ~$108.
Not 100% convicted in this but it's curious and is worth keeping an eye on over the next few weeks/months.
To be clear, this support looks and feels very thin right now. Weekly volume continues to be just at or slightly below the volume 20 MA. Just watching and waiting at this point for more conviction and data points to make a decision.