Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
Sawcruhteez Strategies: How to BUY THE DIP | Advanced Dollar Cost Averaging Methods
Welp the last fractal didn't quite turn out as I had hoped : /
This was primarily a result of my belief that the log growth curve would hold as support leading into the halving. When $7,500 broke down a month ago it left me waiting on the edge of my seat for further development. I hope that everyone has been managing risk and staying safe themselves! For those who haven't I hope that you are learning from the experience and moving forward : )
After the S&P experienced a major selloff the rest of the markets followed. Bitcoin hasn't traditionally been an asset that is coupled with traditional markets, however Bitcoin has never experienced an S&P bear market. When stocks are selling off it creates an extremely risky environment and the riskiest assets generally selloff the hardest during a flight to safety. Furthermore the riskiest assets usually experience the weakest dead cat bounces after the first leg down.
After what we have seen over the past month I have become more bullish on Bitcoin than ever.
I do believe that the S&P is currently in the complacency stage of the bubble cycle and I remain worried about what may happen to Bitcoin if the S&P really melts down. That being said what we have seen over the last month has given me sufficient reason to believe that Bitcoin will repeat history with or without an S&P bull market.
Bitcoin is a unique asset class for at least one reason, and I am starting to believe that there are multiple aspects that make this market unique. First is the halving. There is no other asset that shares this characteristic and I believe this is the most important fundamental trait of Bitcoin. If that outweighs a S&P bear market then I believe it would lead to the biggest bubble that the world has ever experienced. That would be enough to gain mainstream adoption and if there is only one, or two (gold), assets going up while everything else is going down then it would create FOMO of unprecedented proportions.
Before the past month this was a complete fantasy in my mind. I refused to believe that the riskiest asset in the world would benefit from the riskiest possible environment. Now I can see the light.
The second thing that may be unique about Bitcoin is the extreme conviction of the remaining market participants. Bear markets separate those who truly believe in the underlying asset from those who are primarily motivated by getting rich(er). It also separates the true believers who know how to manage risk from those who do not. Capitulation happens when the strong hands become sellers. The move down in March was capitulation.
This results in a liquidity spike that will blow out the large majority of market makers. This is the do or die moment when supply and demand is truly tested. If there are more panic sellers than the market can support then it can drop to $0 in the blink of an eye. Anyone that watched the recent action in oil knows just how true this is. In 12 hours it fell from $10 to negative prices and this is the something that the economy fundamentally requires to function!!! This isn't true about 95%+ of other assets. If oil can go to $0 then anything can.
Anyone who didn't sell on that move down is not likely to sell anytime soon. The person, or persons, who were the biggest buyers below $5,000 likely aren't planning to sell anytime soon either. This creates a major (perceived) imbalance in supply vs demand. I am expecting a very choppy period over the next 2 - 3 months and I do expect price to retest below $6,000. This is where I will be looking to accumulate some heavy bags. I am very interested in buying spot from $4,5000 - $8,000. It's a big range and it will be a risky position to build but I believe that the risk is well worth the potential reward. Over the past few years my target for the next top has been $150,000. At this time I am starting to consider some significantly higher targets. If price proceeds in a similar fashion to the chart above then I will become more and more confident in the adjusted measurements.
Sawcruhteez Strategies: How to BUY THE DIP | Advanced Dollar Cost Averaging Methods
Welp the last fractal didn't quite turn out as I had hoped : /
This was primarily a result of my belief that the log growth curve would hold as support leading into the halving. When $7,500 broke down a month ago it left me waiting on the edge of my seat for further development. I hope that everyone has been managing risk and staying safe themselves! For those who haven't I hope that you are learning from the experience and moving forward : )
After the S&P experienced a major selloff the rest of the markets followed. Bitcoin hasn't traditionally been an asset that is coupled with traditional markets, however Bitcoin has never experienced an S&P bear market. When stocks are selling off it creates an extremely risky environment and the riskiest assets generally selloff the hardest during a flight to safety. Furthermore the riskiest assets usually experience the weakest dead cat bounces after the first leg down.
After what we have seen over the past month I have become more bullish on Bitcoin than ever.
I do believe that the S&P is currently in the complacency stage of the bubble cycle and I remain worried about what may happen to Bitcoin if the S&P really melts down. That being said what we have seen over the last month has given me sufficient reason to believe that Bitcoin will repeat history with or without an S&P bull market.
Bitcoin is a unique asset class for at least one reason, and I am starting to believe that there are multiple aspects that make this market unique. First is the halving. There is no other asset that shares this characteristic and I believe this is the most important fundamental trait of Bitcoin. If that outweighs a S&P bear market then I believe it would lead to the biggest bubble that the world has ever experienced. That would be enough to gain mainstream adoption and if there is only one, or two (gold), assets going up while everything else is going down then it would create FOMO of unprecedented proportions.
Before the past month this was a complete fantasy in my mind. I refused to believe that the riskiest asset in the world would benefit from the riskiest possible environment. Now I can see the light.
The second thing that may be unique about Bitcoin is the extreme conviction of the remaining market participants. Bear markets separate those who truly believe in the underlying asset from those who are primarily motivated by getting rich(er). It also separates the true believers who know how to manage risk from those who do not. Capitulation happens when the strong hands become sellers. The move down in March was capitulation.
This results in a liquidity spike that will blow out the large majority of market makers. This is the do or die moment when supply and demand is truly tested. If there are more panic sellers than the market can support then it can drop to $0 in the blink of an eye. Anyone that watched the recent action in oil knows just how true this is. In 12 hours it fell from $10 to negative prices and this is the something that the economy fundamentally requires to function!!! This isn't true about 95%+ of other assets. If oil can go to $0 then anything can.
Anyone who didn't sell on that move down is not likely to sell anytime soon. The person, or persons, who were the biggest buyers below $5,000 likely aren't planning to sell anytime soon either. This creates a major (perceived) imbalance in supply vs demand. I am expecting a very choppy period over the next 2 - 3 months and I do expect price to retest below $6,000. This is where I will be looking to accumulate some heavy bags. I am very interested in buying spot from $4,5000 - $8,000. It's a big range and it will be a risky position to build but I believe that the risk is well worth the potential reward. Over the past few years my target for the next top has been $150,000. At this time I am starting to consider some significantly higher targets. If price proceeds in a similar fashion to the chart above then I will become more and more confident in the adjusted measurements.
emasar Indicator is available for purchase at alphanalysis.io/product/emasar/