I present to you my new BTC chart where I am looking for a bearish gartley XABCD pattern to form on higher timeframes.
We can trade this pattern with multiple trade setups.
Please remind this is all speculation and it may not play out or can fail at any time.
More details are in the chart. Questions? please ask.
1. Symmetrical triangle breakout
A measured move would bring us to the .618 retracement at around 8k if it breaks upwards, or back down to around 5.8k if it breaks down.
With a break down the rest of all TA on this chart will become invalid.
2. (B) Golden retracement 0.618
If we can get back up to this level and price reverses here, the probability of forming a bearish gartley becomes higher.
Also, BTC loves to reverse price when hitting the golden zone.
This will be a very nice short oppertunity for a potential 20% move down.
3. (C) Block reward halvening and 0.382 retracement
Lets assume at this point that both trade 1 and 2 played out. The next target would then be (C) of the XABCD pattern which is the 0.382 retracement.
Price should get there around the block reward halvening event. All these variables are a good reason for opening a long position at this area.
4. (D) Final target + CME futures gap fill
Now that we came this far and people are FOMOing in because of a huge price spike all the way up to around 9k, its time to short the FOMO.
When price reverses at around 9k : 1. The XABCD bearish gartley pattern will be completed 2. huge CME futures gap will be filled 3. a macro lower high will be created.
We can trade this pattern with multiple trade setups.
Please remind this is all speculation and it may not play out or can fail at any time.
More details are in the chart. Questions? please ask.
1. Symmetrical triangle breakout
A measured move would bring us to the .618 retracement at around 8k if it breaks upwards, or back down to around 5.8k if it breaks down.
With a break down the rest of all TA on this chart will become invalid.
2. (B) Golden retracement 0.618
If we can get back up to this level and price reverses here, the probability of forming a bearish gartley becomes higher.
Also, BTC loves to reverse price when hitting the golden zone.
This will be a very nice short oppertunity for a potential 20% move down.
3. (C) Block reward halvening and 0.382 retracement
Lets assume at this point that both trade 1 and 2 played out. The next target would then be (C) of the XABCD pattern which is the 0.382 retracement.
Price should get there around the block reward halvening event. All these variables are a good reason for opening a long position at this area.
4. (D) Final target + CME futures gap fill
Now that we came this far and people are FOMOing in because of a huge price spike all the way up to around 9k, its time to short the FOMO.
When price reverses at around 9k : 1. The XABCD bearish gartley pattern will be completed 2. huge CME futures gap will be filled 3. a macro lower high will be created.
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We are now at 7400 resistance which is the middle red line of the ascending channel. If we can break this level, next short term target would be 7660.
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That was a very quick! Now we wait for the final move to 0.618 to complete our first trade
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In the very short term, price could retest 7400 levels as support
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Small adjustment to fit a possible retrace to 0.5.
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channel scenario
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