I keep hearing people regurgitating Steve Courtney’s (Crypto Crew U. YT channel) trope about the market has built a lot of structure by slowly grinding up, unlike in 2019 in which the price moved too quickly to 13.9k. And they take this as some gospel or evidence that the price will not crash back down to a lower low. This a syllogistic logical fallacy or a form of apophenia that attempts to assign causation to features which may be present among other outcomes. A more sophisticated person entertains all of the facts of the situation and doesn’t try to form causal conclusions based on myopic cherry picking of preferred datums. They should read the How to Piss Me Off Guide.
Why doesn’t anyone else notice the following?
1. For every bear market bottom, the second crash below the 200 WMA is always deeper than the prior one within the same cycle. Thus clearly another deeper move below the 200 WMA is looming before the bottom.
2. Note my textual annotations on the following chart. Note ending diagonals in 2018 and currently are followed by massive, intense moves in the other direction. Also note that the 5 waves for the prior bull market were a terminating wave because of wave 2 retraced more than 67% of wave 1. A TERMINATING WAVE MEANS THE BITCOIN BULL MARKET SINCE ITS INCEPTION IS FINISHED. Thus Bitcoin will not make a new ATH ever again until the entire bull run from its inception has been reset. Per Steve Courtney’s 5.3 ratio theory which predicts every bull market top for Bitcoin, the next top can only be ~413% above the bottom. If Bitcoin bottoms at 13.6k in 2024 as I expect, then it will top at ~70k and will not make a new ATH.
Why doesn’t anyone else notice the following?
1. For every bear market bottom, the second crash below the 200 WMA is always deeper than the prior one within the same cycle. Thus clearly another deeper move below the 200 WMA is looming before the bottom.
2. Note my textual annotations on the following chart. Note ending diagonals in 2018 and currently are followed by massive, intense moves in the other direction. Also note that the 5 waves for the prior bull market were a terminating wave because of wave 2 retraced more than 67% of wave 1. A TERMINATING WAVE MEANS THE BITCOIN BULL MARKET SINCE ITS INCEPTION IS FINISHED. Thus Bitcoin will not make a new ATH ever again until the entire bull run from its inception has been reset. Per Steve Courtney’s 5.3 ratio theory which predicts every bull market top for Bitcoin, the next top can only be ~413% above the bottom. If Bitcoin bottoms at 13.6k in 2024 as I expect, then it will top at ~70k and will not make a new ATH.
Comment:
I have leaned towards Bitcoin weakening in each cycle and much weaker per the amount of time it spent below the 200 MA unlike prior cycles. Also Steve Courtney’s (Crypto Crew U., no affiliation of mine) 5.3 ratio hypothesis which has predicted every bull market price top, says the next top in 2025 can not exceed ~5.13 times the bottom (i.e. +413%). Thus if 15.4k was the bottom, then top in 2025 will be ~79k. Yet if Bitcoin were to decline to a lower-low ~13k, the top would be projected ~70k, which would be a doomsday triple top.
Expounding on my bearish RSI divergence point (and other points arguing for why another contagion may be forming of which I did not even go into detail about how much the economies outside the U.S. are weakening which is exactly what was happening in 2019 as well at least in W. Europe) from my said prior comments, note the different Elliot Wave structure of the bounce from the bottom in 2018 compared to 2022. The significant rally from 3.1k to 13.9k in 2019 was wave 1 of a bullish 5 wave structure that completed with the 2021 top. Thus the corrective wave 2 for the C19 contagion was not a lower-low. Whereas, coming off the prospective 15.4k low, there is a bull trap 5 wave structure forming which will complete in next couple of months or less. Thus this is a corrective wave B or X of an A-B-C aka W-X-Y bear market correction from the ATH. Thus Bitcoin is likely to make a lower-low in H1 2024.
Expounding on my bearish RSI divergence point (and other points arguing for why another contagion may be forming of which I did not even go into detail about how much the economies outside the U.S. are weakening which is exactly what was happening in 2019 as well at least in W. Europe) from my said prior comments, note the different Elliot Wave structure of the bounce from the bottom in 2018 compared to 2022. The significant rally from 3.1k to 13.9k in 2019 was wave 1 of a bullish 5 wave structure that completed with the 2021 top. Thus the corrective wave 2 for the C19 contagion was not a lower-low. Whereas, coming off the prospective 15.4k low, there is a bull trap 5 wave structure forming which will complete in next couple of months or less. Thus this is a corrective wave B or X of an A-B-C aka W-X-Y bear market correction from the ATH. Thus Bitcoin is likely to make a lower-low in H1 2024.
Comment:
Readers have an incorrect model of reality. Bitcoin the new asset is here to enslave you, not to help you. And it will not be lifted to $ 1million until first destroying the impostor Bitcoin taking the Bitcoin price to ~$0, which you currently incorrectly think is Bitcoin and here to save you. The reality is the Bitcoin ETF is all about enslaving you. Educate yourself. Dig into the links, especially the first one which is my blog.
Comment:
If 15.4k was the bottom thus per the 5.3 ratio invariant discovered by Crypto Crew U., 79k will be the 2025 top. So implicitly you expect a slow, steady staircase rise from a halving low ~28 - 37k to 79k top? Is that reasonable less than a triple (perhaps only a double) from the halving low when 2020 was 17 times? And from 2016 to 2017 top it was 42 times. Even if we expect only a third of 17, that should be 5+ times from the halving low incoming which precisely agrees with the 5.13 (+413%) expected by said 5.3 ratio which predicted every cycle top in Bitcoin’s history.
The correction from the peak in 2019 to the bottom in 2020 was ~71%, which if measured from the ~45k top I expect for this bull trap, will put the 2024 low at ~13k, which is roughly what my other analyses expect. I already explained to you in great detail in my comment on one your recent videos, that the global macroeconomic stress as well as the POTUS year threat of populism overcoming the coup d'etat will demand another pandemic-like result. It will be the first severe recession in Bitcoin’s existence, so a hard landing and concomitant liquidity contagion alone may be sufficient. Do not rule out a government shutdown to exacerbate the hard landing and liquidity contagion.
The congestion for months below the 32k level is not necessarily indicative of building an impenetrable base for the looming correction. That appears to be a Three Hills (valley) and a Mountain blowoff top bull trap culminating in a wave 5. It is also ostensibly an Elliot Wave ending diagonal because wave 4 corrected below the top of wave 1. Everyone and his uncle expects Bitcoin never to drop below 20k again which is retail idiocracy being lured in by the ETF moon FOMO.
The correction from the peak in 2019 to the bottom in 2020 was ~71%, which if measured from the ~45k top I expect for this bull trap, will put the 2024 low at ~13k, which is roughly what my other analyses expect. I already explained to you in great detail in my comment on one your recent videos, that the global macroeconomic stress as well as the POTUS year threat of populism overcoming the coup d'etat will demand another pandemic-like result. It will be the first severe recession in Bitcoin’s existence, so a hard landing and concomitant liquidity contagion alone may be sufficient. Do not rule out a government shutdown to exacerbate the hard landing and liquidity contagion.
The congestion for months below the 32k level is not necessarily indicative of building an impenetrable base for the looming correction. That appears to be a Three Hills (valley) and a Mountain blowoff top bull trap culminating in a wave 5. It is also ostensibly an Elliot Wave ending diagonal because wave 4 corrected below the top of wave 1. Everyone and his uncle expects Bitcoin never to drop below 20k again which is retail idiocracy being lured in by the ETF moon FOMO.
Comment:
The 80% down has not completed yet for the current bear market. We are not in the bull market yet. Jason Pizzino is a sleepwalking cheerleader (with pompoms) leading you to complacency.
This entire altcoin pump is fake! User and investor adoption has continued to plummet. The altcoin bear market is not over folks!
youtu.be/oRR11bYspPE
(The Altcoin Rally Is Fake | My Biggest Altcoin Warning Yet... | DataDash)
Of course the insiders who are holding bags from the FTX blowup are pumping the markets to dump on retail before the bear market continues with the expiration of the BTFP on March 11 and the banking collapse that will allow the Fed to pivot. Wash, rinse, repeat. Retail never learns.
====
Here is the follow-up from George Gammon where he has the possibility of the expiration of the BTFP on March 11, could lead to a banking contagion and be the catalyst for the crash I am expecting.
youtu.be/92i2M_1p7v4
(Banking Sector Collapse Coming, Why It Could Happen in March – George Gammon)
====
Storm clouds accumulating into a looming hurricane in the global economy:
youtu.be/8gFhm7_VQ2k
(Oil Is Sending A Warning Message To The Stock Market | Mott Capital Mgmt)
====
Why is Solana rallying like crazy?
Ron Walker has a plausible explanation. He argues that FTX et al, needed to pump their bags so they could liquidate them on the retail investor fools. Also he points out that Bitcoin is rising on declining volume.
The dumb retail investors always believe the hopium. And we have sleepwalking cheerleader Jason Pizzino assuring them that crypto can never crash anew.
youtu.be/BVLXhQwQlpc?t=633
(The Bitcoin Wyckoff Distribution CRASH Has Begun - BTC To Test of 32K Soon - BULL TRAP)
Ron argues the Wycoff distribution is still in play even if pullback followed by a higher high. He thinks the moves in Bitcoin are exaggerated, thus allowing for slightly more extreme than textbook Wycoff.
youtu.be/Larttvdrbh4?t=88
(Bitcoin Wyckoff Distribution CRASH Coming - BTC BULL TRAP Being Set)
====
Let’s contemplate other Elliot Wave counts which might invalidate the thesis of the ending diagonal. The following is invalid because wave 1 is the largest wave which can not be the case.
The following is proposed in the following video and I corrected him. Alternatively he considers the bearish case which is the same as what I expect.
youtu.be/7uaRYmvlYqA
(BITCOIN ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS)
Your B is higher than your 1. That not allowed. Thus it can only be the bearish case W-X-Y currently in the A-B-C bull trap wave X. Any attempt at labeling a 5 wave count currently is an ending diagonal, which is bearish. Also prior bull cycle wave 2 corrected more than 67% of wave 1, which makes it a terminal wave. That means this bear market will be much worse than prior ones. And no new ATH will be reached in this next bull market. You like everyone else thinks the C19 contagion will not repeat in 2024, but in fact the macroeconomic and orangeutan hair threat (i.e. political) conditions are nearly the same. And do not forget the BTFP (aka buy the f-ing pivot) banking collapse prevention expires March 11.
This entire altcoin pump is fake! User and investor adoption has continued to plummet. The altcoin bear market is not over folks!
youtu.be/oRR11bYspPE
(The Altcoin Rally Is Fake | My Biggest Altcoin Warning Yet... | DataDash)
Of course the insiders who are holding bags from the FTX blowup are pumping the markets to dump on retail before the bear market continues with the expiration of the BTFP on March 11 and the banking collapse that will allow the Fed to pivot. Wash, rinse, repeat. Retail never learns.
====
Here is the follow-up from George Gammon where he has the possibility of the expiration of the BTFP on March 11, could lead to a banking contagion and be the catalyst for the crash I am expecting.
youtu.be/92i2M_1p7v4
(Banking Sector Collapse Coming, Why It Could Happen in March – George Gammon)
====
Storm clouds accumulating into a looming hurricane in the global economy:
youtu.be/8gFhm7_VQ2k
(Oil Is Sending A Warning Message To The Stock Market | Mott Capital Mgmt)
====
Why is Solana rallying like crazy?
Ron Walker has a plausible explanation. He argues that FTX et al, needed to pump their bags so they could liquidate them on the retail investor fools. Also he points out that Bitcoin is rising on declining volume.
The dumb retail investors always believe the hopium. And we have sleepwalking cheerleader Jason Pizzino assuring them that crypto can never crash anew.
youtu.be/BVLXhQwQlpc?t=633
(The Bitcoin Wyckoff Distribution CRASH Has Begun - BTC To Test of 32K Soon - BULL TRAP)
Ron argues the Wycoff distribution is still in play even if pullback followed by a higher high. He thinks the moves in Bitcoin are exaggerated, thus allowing for slightly more extreme than textbook Wycoff.
youtu.be/Larttvdrbh4?t=88
(Bitcoin Wyckoff Distribution CRASH Coming - BTC BULL TRAP Being Set)
====
Let’s contemplate other Elliot Wave counts which might invalidate the thesis of the ending diagonal. The following is invalid because wave 1 is the largest wave which can not be the case.
The following is proposed in the following video and I corrected him. Alternatively he considers the bearish case which is the same as what I expect.
youtu.be/7uaRYmvlYqA
(BITCOIN ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS)
Your B is higher than your 1. That not allowed. Thus it can only be the bearish case W-X-Y currently in the A-B-C bull trap wave X. Any attempt at labeling a 5 wave count currently is an ending diagonal, which is bearish. Also prior bull cycle wave 2 corrected more than 67% of wave 1, which makes it a terminal wave. That means this bear market will be much worse than prior ones. And no new ATH will be reached in this next bull market. You like everyone else thinks the C19 contagion will not repeat in 2024, but in fact the macroeconomic and orangeutan hair threat (i.e. political) conditions are nearly the same. And do not forget the BTFP (aka buy the f-ing pivot) banking collapse prevention expires March 11.
Comment:
Took short-term profits from bullish position entered earlier today (c.f. updates). Might reenter on pullback.
====
My best guess is that this rally needs a backtest ~33 - 34k to the blue support line on my chart before possibly one more upthrust to ~42 - 43k to form the final bearish divergence. Although I guess possible, I doubt ~38k was the final top, as other indications are this bull phase will continue a month or two more to run up including perhaps a pullback.
====
Jason Pizzino highlighted my comment and specifically said he does not think Bitcoin can go to my prediction of 14k. He implied I am loony.
youtu.be/Kw3APTaYrlY?t=529 ← click for his screen capture of my comment on his prior video
Jason didn’t address any of the detailed points I made in comments on his recent videos. He is ostensibly oblivious to for example the Shark harmonic pattern pointing to an Ethereum crash in price after this pump to the 3200 Bat harmonic target. I purchased ETH December calls this past summer expecting the Bat rally, which have seen 10 times gain already! Jason is ostensibly oblivious to the Terminal Wave and Ending Diagonals on the Elliot Wave structure of Bitcoin.
In 2022, I employed harmonic pattern theory to PUBLICLY (on TradingView) predict NatGas would crash to $2, that the S&P would rally to 4650 (the 0.886 target), pullback (as it did this summer) and then rally anew to ~4950 (the 1.13 target) which is underway.
From the comments:
@ivanguzman102, I did predict the future numerous times.
====
To reiterate that Bitcoin will enslave the 99%. Per the explanation I aforelinked in my blog, the SegWit, Lightning Networks, scaling crap will be destroyed and that impostor Bitcoin will go to ~0. The 1 MiB block limited legacy protocol Bitcoin will rise from the ashes after the WWIII underway as the 1988 Economist Magazine cover story Phoenix. Bitcoin transaction fees will be affordable only to large transaction values, thus used only by the wealth. Bitcoin is not long, for us. We were deceived into supporting our future enslavement.
====
www.youtube.com/watch?v=rIpPwfML...
(Comments on "How Mexico Will Save The West")
> “@SMoore-vj7bt I'm not Mexican nor am I diminishing regular Americans. It's just obvious that America doesn't have a long term plan for dealing with most of the world becoming industrialized. American politicians are senile and out of touch.”
@jay1jayf the holistic picture is actually enslavement of the entire world. The political elite of the US Empire are just pawns of the real power behind the curtain. Industrialization does not mean freedom. It means trading freedom for trinkets. Just as the indigenous were lured into trading their land for mirror or bottle of liquor. The deck of cards is being shuffled but the House remains in control of the odds of winning. Mexico is a new frontier to some extent, because of low regulations. But the tax man cometh. Within a few decades or less the enslavement in the West will be universal all over the world. That is what the rise of multipolarism (and the deflationary, dystopian Bitcoin to displace the USD) is really about. When you ponder who created Bitcoin just ask yourself who benefits from enslaving the world in a unit of account that is a fixed supply and can be monopolized by the 1%.
====
From the comments.
@cornvutthole, what part of the first link I put in the prior comment are you ostensibly not capable of clicking, reading and comprehending? Perhaps if you are technologically illiterate and/or average IQ, then what is written there (by myself, i.e. I am the author of the linked blog) may make no sense to you?
It is inarguable that the impostor Bitcoin (which you all ERRONEOUSLY think is the official Bitcoin) is going to ~$0, when the 13+ million Bitcoin ANYONECANSPEND booty is donated to the miners (no need to even hack the private keys) by the fact that you willfully and ignorantly stored your Bitcoin in addresses that begin with 3 or bc1, instead of Satoshi’s legacy addresses that begin with 1. And BSV and BCH have nothing to do with this. I am not referring to any of scammer Craig “Faketoshi” Wright’s nonsense/shenanigans. The 2017 soft fork broke the Nash Equilibrium by creating a huge booty. The only way to fix the equilibrium is for the miners to take it and force the hard fork. After which the impostor will go to $0, because of the economic asymmetry of the airdrop, i.e. everyone hodling legacy Bitcoin will receive both airdrops, whereas the those not will donate their legacy airdrop to the miners AND HAVE A HUGE TAXABLE CAPITAL GAIN THEY CAN NOT PAY thus wrecking their lives and burning their fingertips up to their armpits for touching impostor Bitcorn.
This restoration event (aka “attack”) must occur before Bitcoin can rise as the new world reserve currency, i.e. the 1988 Economist Magazine cover story Phoenix.
====
My best guess is that this rally needs a backtest ~33 - 34k to the blue support line on my chart before possibly one more upthrust to ~42 - 43k to form the final bearish divergence. Although I guess possible, I doubt ~38k was the final top, as other indications are this bull phase will continue a month or two more to run up including perhaps a pullback.
====
Jason Pizzino highlighted my comment and specifically said he does not think Bitcoin can go to my prediction of 14k. He implied I am loony.
youtu.be/Kw3APTaYrlY?t=529 ← click for his screen capture of my comment on his prior video
Jason didn’t address any of the detailed points I made in comments on his recent videos. He is ostensibly oblivious to for example the Shark harmonic pattern pointing to an Ethereum crash in price after this pump to the 3200 Bat harmonic target. I purchased ETH December calls this past summer expecting the Bat rally, which have seen 10 times gain already! Jason is ostensibly oblivious to the Terminal Wave and Ending Diagonals on the Elliot Wave structure of Bitcoin.
In 2022, I employed harmonic pattern theory to PUBLICLY (on TradingView) predict NatGas would crash to $2, that the S&P would rally to 4650 (the 0.886 target), pullback (as it did this summer) and then rally anew to ~4950 (the 1.13 target) which is underway.
From the comments:
@ivanguzman102, I did predict the future numerous times.
====
To reiterate that Bitcoin will enslave the 99%. Per the explanation I aforelinked in my blog, the SegWit, Lightning Networks, scaling crap will be destroyed and that impostor Bitcoin will go to ~0. The 1 MiB block limited legacy protocol Bitcoin will rise from the ashes after the WWIII underway as the 1988 Economist Magazine cover story Phoenix. Bitcoin transaction fees will be affordable only to large transaction values, thus used only by the wealth. Bitcoin is not long, for us. We were deceived into supporting our future enslavement.
====
www.youtube.com/watch?v=rIpPwfML...
(Comments on "How Mexico Will Save The West")
> “@SMoore-vj7bt I'm not Mexican nor am I diminishing regular Americans. It's just obvious that America doesn't have a long term plan for dealing with most of the world becoming industrialized. American politicians are senile and out of touch.”
@jay1jayf the holistic picture is actually enslavement of the entire world. The political elite of the US Empire are just pawns of the real power behind the curtain. Industrialization does not mean freedom. It means trading freedom for trinkets. Just as the indigenous were lured into trading their land for mirror or bottle of liquor. The deck of cards is being shuffled but the House remains in control of the odds of winning. Mexico is a new frontier to some extent, because of low regulations. But the tax man cometh. Within a few decades or less the enslavement in the West will be universal all over the world. That is what the rise of multipolarism (and the deflationary, dystopian Bitcoin to displace the USD) is really about. When you ponder who created Bitcoin just ask yourself who benefits from enslaving the world in a unit of account that is a fixed supply and can be monopolized by the 1%.
====
From the comments.
@cornvutthole, what part of the first link I put in the prior comment are you ostensibly not capable of clicking, reading and comprehending? Perhaps if you are technologically illiterate and/or average IQ, then what is written there (by myself, i.e. I am the author of the linked blog) may make no sense to you?
It is inarguable that the impostor Bitcoin (which you all ERRONEOUSLY think is the official Bitcoin) is going to ~$0, when the 13+ million Bitcoin ANYONECANSPEND booty is donated to the miners (no need to even hack the private keys) by the fact that you willfully and ignorantly stored your Bitcoin in addresses that begin with 3 or bc1, instead of Satoshi’s legacy addresses that begin with 1. And BSV and BCH have nothing to do with this. I am not referring to any of scammer Craig “Faketoshi” Wright’s nonsense/shenanigans. The 2017 soft fork broke the Nash Equilibrium by creating a huge booty. The only way to fix the equilibrium is for the miners to take it and force the hard fork. After which the impostor will go to $0, because of the economic asymmetry of the airdrop, i.e. everyone hodling legacy Bitcoin will receive both airdrops, whereas the those not will donate their legacy airdrop to the miners AND HAVE A HUGE TAXABLE CAPITAL GAIN THEY CAN NOT PAY thus wrecking their lives and burning their fingertips up to their armpits for touching impostor Bitcorn.
This restoration event (aka “attack”) must occur before Bitcoin can rise as the new world reserve currency, i.e. the 1988 Economist Magazine cover story Phoenix.
Comment:
It was a hidden secret code pattern that I discovered (and published in my idea update) on September 3 that enabled me to pinpoint a plausible bottom price ~14k for Bitcoin. I wrote:
Based on these patterns, I think BTC will flash crash only to ~14k in 2024. Will only be down there for a very short period and quickly back above 21k again. Thus per Steve Courtney’s 5.3 rule, looks like the H2 2025 top will only ~71k.
====
Expounding on my two comment posts in the comments section (on this published idea) reflecting on my historical Tradingview record being incorrectly understood, I will write my thought progression as best as I can recall off the top of my head without going back into all my history meticulously to bolster my recollection.
I had not discovered Ron Walker’s YT channel (currently aka The Doctor of Dump & Pump, formerly The Crypto Trader) near the Sep/Oct 2021 top in the market. Thus I was all alone in my belief that Bitcoin had topped. I was up against intense FOMO for the $100+k thesis even in my own discussion circle. Couple this being back and forth between Mexico and the USA, not ultimately settling into an apartment in Arizona until Jan 2022, I was very distracted and disorganized at the 2021 top.
After the drop below $20k, I noticed some short-term bullish divergence on the CME that was not on spot (or maybe it was vice versa) and I noticed Gareth Soloway had started to nibble and soften is expectation of 13k, allowing for the possibility of an interim bounce to maybe 32k. Ron Walker continued to call for 9 to 12k. Right before the drop to 15.4k, I started to entertain the notion of a Wycoff accumulation and this was before I discovered Jason Pizzino who was spouting the same hypothesis. When the price hit 16k and bounced, I called the bottom. Then surprisingly it dropped again to 15.4k and I knew this was the final spring on the Wycoff accumulation, I actually talked someone out of despair in my private Telegram group. He has since held his position all the way up.
Ron Walker finally allowed for a bounce from the 15.4k level but did not see the Wycoff accumulation. And thus he as expecting only a bull trap dead cat bounce to ~20k to be rejected and decline to his 9 to 12k targets. All the way up, he kept having correct short-term buy and sell calls, but he was always bearish overall. Every bull move higher was counter to his stated expectations until the price broke above 32k, he started to allow for 40k.
I had found OPTICALARTdotCOM when the Bitcoin price was still around or above the $30+k level and he like Gareth were calling for 13k. Note he was similar to Ron Walker always expecting the next leg down that I am expecting now, and expecting that all way from the 15.4k level at every attempt to thrust over 32k. But to his credit, he did have a Fib circle ring that enabled him to go long at exactly 15.4k as it crossed his circle which was a bullish pump signal for him. But he never expected the price to rally as much as it did.
Whereas, around Oct/Nov 2022, I found harmonic patterns (Shark and Bat) which enabled me to publicly predict (in updates on my Year from Hell idea) 4650, correction, then 4950 for S&P (and commensurately also for the Nasdaq) as well as a crash to $2 for NatGas I predicted earlier in 2022, and the 2100 followed by 2600 to 3200 level for Ethereum. So this is why I was buying Dec 29 2100 strike ETH calls in Sep/Oct 2023 for ~$10 and selling them recently for ~$100.
I had been following Game of Trades on YT who had pointed that historically the stock market rallies to an ATH after the Fed pauses, then crashes when it pivots (reduces Fed Fund rates). He was expecting that pause in June 2022, so eventually he got weary waiting for it and turned very bearish. I protested and many of his followers thought I was loony to call for 4650 at the Oct/Nov 2022 lows.
As I tied in all the developing factors into my analysis of the situation, I realized that Ron Walker and OPTICALARTdotCOM bearish thesis for another leg down, is probably correct. And so now I join them, but only after they were mostly wrong since the 15.4k bottom, although they were both correct from the $66k top to the $20k level at least.
Based on these patterns, I think BTC will flash crash only to ~14k in 2024. Will only be down there for a very short period and quickly back above 21k again. Thus per Steve Courtney’s 5.3 rule, looks like the H2 2025 top will only ~71k.
====
Expounding on my two comment posts in the comments section (on this published idea) reflecting on my historical Tradingview record being incorrectly understood, I will write my thought progression as best as I can recall off the top of my head without going back into all my history meticulously to bolster my recollection.
I had not discovered Ron Walker’s YT channel (currently aka The Doctor of Dump & Pump, formerly The Crypto Trader) near the Sep/Oct 2021 top in the market. Thus I was all alone in my belief that Bitcoin had topped. I was up against intense FOMO for the $100+k thesis even in my own discussion circle. Couple this being back and forth between Mexico and the USA, not ultimately settling into an apartment in Arizona until Jan 2022, I was very distracted and disorganized at the 2021 top.
After the drop below $20k, I noticed some short-term bullish divergence on the CME that was not on spot (or maybe it was vice versa) and I noticed Gareth Soloway had started to nibble and soften is expectation of 13k, allowing for the possibility of an interim bounce to maybe 32k. Ron Walker continued to call for 9 to 12k. Right before the drop to 15.4k, I started to entertain the notion of a Wycoff accumulation and this was before I discovered Jason Pizzino who was spouting the same hypothesis. When the price hit 16k and bounced, I called the bottom. Then surprisingly it dropped again to 15.4k and I knew this was the final spring on the Wycoff accumulation, I actually talked someone out of despair in my private Telegram group. He has since held his position all the way up.
Ron Walker finally allowed for a bounce from the 15.4k level but did not see the Wycoff accumulation. And thus he as expecting only a bull trap dead cat bounce to ~20k to be rejected and decline to his 9 to 12k targets. All the way up, he kept having correct short-term buy and sell calls, but he was always bearish overall. Every bull move higher was counter to his stated expectations until the price broke above 32k, he started to allow for 40k.
I had found OPTICALARTdotCOM when the Bitcoin price was still around or above the $30+k level and he like Gareth were calling for 13k. Note he was similar to Ron Walker always expecting the next leg down that I am expecting now, and expecting that all way from the 15.4k level at every attempt to thrust over 32k. But to his credit, he did have a Fib circle ring that enabled him to go long at exactly 15.4k as it crossed his circle which was a bullish pump signal for him. But he never expected the price to rally as much as it did.
Whereas, around Oct/Nov 2022, I found harmonic patterns (Shark and Bat) which enabled me to publicly predict (in updates on my Year from Hell idea) 4650, correction, then 4950 for S&P (and commensurately also for the Nasdaq) as well as a crash to $2 for NatGas I predicted earlier in 2022, and the 2100 followed by 2600 to 3200 level for Ethereum. So this is why I was buying Dec 29 2100 strike ETH calls in Sep/Oct 2023 for ~$10 and selling them recently for ~$100.
I had been following Game of Trades on YT who had pointed that historically the stock market rallies to an ATH after the Fed pauses, then crashes when it pivots (reduces Fed Fund rates). He was expecting that pause in June 2022, so eventually he got weary waiting for it and turned very bearish. I protested and many of his followers thought I was loony to call for 4650 at the Oct/Nov 2022 lows.
As I tied in all the developing factors into my analysis of the situation, I realized that Ron Walker and OPTICALARTdotCOM bearish thesis for another leg down, is probably correct. And so now I join them, but only after they were mostly wrong since the 15.4k bottom, although they were both correct from the $66k top to the $20k level at least.
Comment:
From the comments:
@SwallowPremium, your linked chart (linked chart{1}) does not appear for me in the comments. I only found the link in my notifications. My reasons are more elaborate yet more or less an equivalent outlook. Note I am open to the possibility that the pre-halving correction will be only just below ~20k and not a lower low. The lower low makes sense to me though for reasons so expressed on this page. I will post this in my idea updates where your chart will thusly display properly.
{1} I tried to link it and it causes the "linked chart" text to be redacted from my comment! What kind of bug does Tradingview have in their software?
]linked chart
@SwallowPremium, your linked chart (linked chart{1}) does not appear for me in the comments. I only found the link in my notifications. My reasons are more elaborate yet more or less an equivalent outlook. Note I am open to the possibility that the pre-halving correction will be only just below ~20k and not a lower low. The lower low makes sense to me though for reasons so expressed on this page. I will post this in my idea updates where your chart will thusly display properly.
{1} I tried to link it and it causes the "linked chart" text to be redacted from my comment! What kind of bug does Tradingview have in their software?
Comment:
Ah another corroborating datum that my expectation is plausible.
youtu.be/nAvgnCtFevI
(WARNING: EVERYONE IS WRONG ABOUT 250K BITCOIN – THIS WILL HAPPEN INSTEAD (BE READY) | Crypto Crew U.)
@CryptoCrewUniversity Steve (Courtney) you just validated what I have been posting on my Trading view the past couple of days that the bottom will be ~14k (just before the halving again), because when you apply the 70k top predicted by this new variant of 5.3 to your prior 5.3 variant, it indicates the actual low will be just below 14k. Also contemplate the doomsday implications of the looming triple top. I informed you in email last year this will likely be the destruction of the impostor 2017 softfork Bitcoin crashing it to near 0 in 2026 before the legacy protocol recovers.
====
From the comments:
> “I think it's too early to say what will happen in 2025 while we're still in 2023. Anything can happen by that time but most likely scenario that there will be new ATH on BTC”
@fastprofittrader, do you still have that same opinion if you assimilate all my corroborating details from the numerous updates on my idea and all my replies in the comments section? I think I have presented a very strong case as to why there can not be a higher high in 2025. We can pinpoint that the top will be in H2 2025, not H1 based on the timing of Bitcoin’s repeating (i.e. periodic) 4 cycle. Couple that with Steve Courtney’s discovery of a 5.3 ratio rule which dictates the top of each subsequent bull market based on a ratio of the prior top and bottom. Thus per his calculation, the current bull market CAN NOT exceed +413% of the bottom. If 15.4k was the bottom, then 79k would be the top in H2 2025.
But based on my other numerous analyses, 15.4k may not be the final bottom, which instead may be ~14k (perhaps 13.6k to be more exact), which thus pegs the looming top to be only ~70k, thus a doomsday triple top, which might be the signal that the impostor Bitcoin may decline to ~$0 in during the horrific bear market coming from 2026 to 2028, wherein the dollar will become incredibly strong because of WWIII with China, Iran, Russia.
youtu.be/nAvgnCtFevI
(WARNING: EVERYONE IS WRONG ABOUT 250K BITCOIN – THIS WILL HAPPEN INSTEAD (BE READY) | Crypto Crew U.)
@CryptoCrewUniversity Steve (Courtney) you just validated what I have been posting on my Trading view the past couple of days that the bottom will be ~14k (just before the halving again), because when you apply the 70k top predicted by this new variant of 5.3 to your prior 5.3 variant, it indicates the actual low will be just below 14k. Also contemplate the doomsday implications of the looming triple top. I informed you in email last year this will likely be the destruction of the impostor 2017 softfork Bitcoin crashing it to near 0 in 2026 before the legacy protocol recovers.
====
From the comments:
> “I think it's too early to say what will happen in 2025 while we're still in 2023. Anything can happen by that time but most likely scenario that there will be new ATH on BTC”
@fastprofittrader, do you still have that same opinion if you assimilate all my corroborating details from the numerous updates on my idea and all my replies in the comments section? I think I have presented a very strong case as to why there can not be a higher high in 2025. We can pinpoint that the top will be in H2 2025, not H1 based on the timing of Bitcoin’s repeating (i.e. periodic) 4 cycle. Couple that with Steve Courtney’s discovery of a 5.3 ratio rule which dictates the top of each subsequent bull market based on a ratio of the prior top and bottom. Thus per his calculation, the current bull market CAN NOT exceed +413% of the bottom. If 15.4k was the bottom, then 79k would be the top in H2 2025.
But based on my other numerous analyses, 15.4k may not be the final bottom, which instead may be ~14k (perhaps 13.6k to be more exact), which thus pegs the looming top to be only ~70k, thus a doomsday triple top, which might be the signal that the impostor Bitcoin may decline to ~$0 in during the horrific bear market coming from 2026 to 2028, wherein the dollar will become incredibly strong because of WWIII with China, Iran, Russia.
Comment:
Ah another indicator of the posited looming further leg down and thus that crypto is still in a bear market after this bull trap rally.
youtu.be/1PLv4gUm0cM?t=371
(Bitcoin & Altcoin Price Analysis | The Critical Levels You Need To Watch | DataDash)
====
Liquidity crisis on tap for March/April. How can people not see that a liquidity crisis is already preprogrammed into the system for that future date?
youtu.be/GgK4566_xRI
(Reverse Repo is Crashing | Heresy Financial)
Coincidentally I had been detecting indications in the crypto charts of looming crash in the markets H1 2024. Also the Fed’s BTFP expires March 11. It’s as if those in control are planning on creating a crisis.
====
From the comments:
> “In which case it turns into a leading diagonal blah blah.”
@ParabolicPanic, not which turns into. I am actually incorrect to posit that it could be an ending diagonal, because per Elliot Wave theory ending diagonals can only occur in the ending C or 5th wave, which is obviously not that case currently. The current wave structure is either the 1st motive wave (thus a leading diagonal) or the second (aka X) corrective wave. I did posit that the current wave structure coming off the 15.4k bottom is either an A-B-C corrective structure or I mentioned it could be an ending diagonal. I should have stated or it could be a leading diagonal. But on further study as I just stated, it can not be an ending diagonal. Thus either this is a bullish leading diagonal for wave 1 of a bullish 5 waves to come, or as I believe it is a corrective A-B-C of an overall larger W-X-Y correction from the 2021 top.
However for it to be a leading diagonal, then small wave 5 underway (not the posited future, larger wave 5) must not be larger than wave 3. Given that small wave 5 already appears to be larger than its small wave 3 and if the Three Hills (, valley) and a Mountain pattern which appears to be underway is fulfilled heading into Dec/Jan, then wave 5 will extend and be much larger than the posited wave 3. Thus a corrective (i.e. not motive) A-B-C would be the only correct Elliot Wave interpretation.
Your “blah, blah” can be lazy self-deception. Corroborating factors and evidence should be studied to support or invalidate a hypothesis. Your leading diagonal hypothesis in invalidated by other facts, or at least the presumption that wave 2 could not be very deep perhaps to 18k which is a possibility I am also allowing for (although the updated as of yesterday 5.3 ratio theory seems to be invalidating that possibility yet we will see). Ostensibly you have not even read all the analysis. Apparently you decided that the page was not worth your time about a paragraph or two into it. This is a problem and why humans are so easily deceived. Most people are lazy and apathetic, and thusly apply heuristics so they can minimize the effort they expend. Often heuristics fail.
====
youtu.be/0Fg30bxX9BA
(Buying Bitcoin Now Will Not Make Your Descendants Rich | Heresy Financial)
Unfortunately pessimistically, this video’s optimism is wrong on two levels. First, Bitcoin will never be the currency (as in for payments), because the 2017 scaling softfork broke the Nash equilibrium and will be destroyed. Bitcoin will only be the global reserve currency used by the very wealthy because of the very high transaction fees given the immutable 1 MiB block size limitation in the legacy protocol. Any attempt to change the protocol will fail due to the economic asymmetry of airdrops (even softforks that become hard fcks when the Nash equilibrium is restored). Bitcoin is moving us to a two-tier monetary system, where the plebs will be forced onto to dystopian, cashless 666 central bank digital currencies and the central banks will hold Bitcoin on their balance shits.
Secondly, the economic mobility of meritocracy does not obviate the power-law distribution of wealth and fungible resources. Unfortunately Bitcoin replacing the dollar will result in dystopia because unlike gold, the dominant empire will not be able to debase the unit-of-account that the entire world relies on. Thus massive deflation and widespread pestilence because most people are incapable of self-reliance, self-discipline, long time preference, etc.. This means that the 1% will become the 0.1%, then the 0.01% and ultimately all the wealth of the world concentrated on the proverbial, metaphorical Biblical Seven Hills. Armageddon follows in Biblical prophesy. The reason for the power-law distribution of wealth and fungible resources is not just regulatory capture. It runs the gamut of ways that economies-of-scale and selection-of-the-fittest-most-ruthless can capture power vacuums because we do not exist in your naive, idealistic implicit assumption of a milieu of perfect disorder.
youtu.be/1PLv4gUm0cM?t=371
(Bitcoin & Altcoin Price Analysis | The Critical Levels You Need To Watch | DataDash)
====
Liquidity crisis on tap for March/April. How can people not see that a liquidity crisis is already preprogrammed into the system for that future date?
youtu.be/GgK4566_xRI
(Reverse Repo is Crashing | Heresy Financial)
Coincidentally I had been detecting indications in the crypto charts of looming crash in the markets H1 2024. Also the Fed’s BTFP expires March 11. It’s as if those in control are planning on creating a crisis.
====
From the comments:
> “In which case it turns into a leading diagonal blah blah.”
@ParabolicPanic, not which turns into. I am actually incorrect to posit that it could be an ending diagonal, because per Elliot Wave theory ending diagonals can only occur in the ending C or 5th wave, which is obviously not that case currently. The current wave structure is either the 1st motive wave (thus a leading diagonal) or the second (aka X) corrective wave. I did posit that the current wave structure coming off the 15.4k bottom is either an A-B-C corrective structure or I mentioned it could be an ending diagonal. I should have stated or it could be a leading diagonal. But on further study as I just stated, it can not be an ending diagonal. Thus either this is a bullish leading diagonal for wave 1 of a bullish 5 waves to come, or as I believe it is a corrective A-B-C of an overall larger W-X-Y correction from the 2021 top.
However for it to be a leading diagonal, then small wave 5 underway (not the posited future, larger wave 5) must not be larger than wave 3. Given that small wave 5 already appears to be larger than its small wave 3 and if the Three Hills (, valley) and a Mountain pattern which appears to be underway is fulfilled heading into Dec/Jan, then wave 5 will extend and be much larger than the posited wave 3. Thus a corrective (i.e. not motive) A-B-C would be the only correct Elliot Wave interpretation.
Your “blah, blah” can be lazy self-deception. Corroborating factors and evidence should be studied to support or invalidate a hypothesis. Your leading diagonal hypothesis in invalidated by other facts, or at least the presumption that wave 2 could not be very deep perhaps to 18k which is a possibility I am also allowing for (although the updated as of yesterday 5.3 ratio theory seems to be invalidating that possibility yet we will see). Ostensibly you have not even read all the analysis. Apparently you decided that the page was not worth your time about a paragraph or two into it. This is a problem and why humans are so easily deceived. Most people are lazy and apathetic, and thusly apply heuristics so they can minimize the effort they expend. Often heuristics fail.
====
youtu.be/0Fg30bxX9BA
(Buying Bitcoin Now Will Not Make Your Descendants Rich | Heresy Financial)
Unfortunately pessimistically, this video’s optimism is wrong on two levels. First, Bitcoin will never be the currency (as in for payments), because the 2017 scaling softfork broke the Nash equilibrium and will be destroyed. Bitcoin will only be the global reserve currency used by the very wealthy because of the very high transaction fees given the immutable 1 MiB block size limitation in the legacy protocol. Any attempt to change the protocol will fail due to the economic asymmetry of airdrops (even softforks that become hard fcks when the Nash equilibrium is restored). Bitcoin is moving us to a two-tier monetary system, where the plebs will be forced onto to dystopian, cashless 666 central bank digital currencies and the central banks will hold Bitcoin on their balance shits.
Secondly, the economic mobility of meritocracy does not obviate the power-law distribution of wealth and fungible resources. Unfortunately Bitcoin replacing the dollar will result in dystopia because unlike gold, the dominant empire will not be able to debase the unit-of-account that the entire world relies on. Thus massive deflation and widespread pestilence because most people are incapable of self-reliance, self-discipline, long time preference, etc.. This means that the 1% will become the 0.1%, then the 0.01% and ultimately all the wealth of the world concentrated on the proverbial, metaphorical Biblical Seven Hills. Armageddon follows in Biblical prophesy. The reason for the power-law distribution of wealth and fungible resources is not just regulatory capture. It runs the gamut of ways that economies-of-scale and selection-of-the-fittest-most-ruthless can capture power vacuums because we do not exist in your naive, idealistic implicit assumption of a milieu of perfect disorder.
Comment:
youtu.be/qdeS2wRI60Q?t=126
(Bitcoin, SP500, Real Estate | Jason Pizzino)
@JasonPizzinoOfficial Jason I don’t deny the existence of a real estate cycle but it is not a universal hammer and not every market is its nail. The real estate market (which some characterize as 18 years peak-to-peak or trough-to-trough) is not perfectly repeatable. There’s significant variance from 14 to 21 years, with and without a significant mid-cycle. Moreover the stock markets do not appear to be solely or even primarily governed by the real estate cycle. For example, the 2000-2001 mid-cycle was rather mild for real-estate, but egregious crash for the stonks with the 2007 S&P top a double-top of the Dotcom peak. Significant pullback in late 1971 one year before the top in late 1972 which may apply if we are expecting a cycle top in 2025. Moreover from 1969 to 1980 was basically flat due to a monetary disinhibition (end of gold standard) and concomitant stagflation which we have now amplified to the nth degree. You should not continue to just apply the variable real estate periodicity blindly to the other markets. Martin Armstrong has instead for example, fed the entire detailed history of human civilization into his AI data mining Socrates which discovered periodicity and correlations which your overly simplistic model can not. Socrates says something dire/significant will occur in H1 2024 probably around the Ides of March again.
Specifically the liquidity that has been feeding the markets has been the draining of the reverse repos into Treasuries with the government spending the funds into the economy. This dries up as of March, as well the Fed’s BTFP (bank rescue) expires March 11. The largest bank failures ever (greater than the GFC) occurred in 2023. The Fed prevented these from being marked-to-market with the BTFP. There was no need to allow for a crisis and inject massive new liquidity in 2023, as inflation was still running high. But now the same global stress that appeared in 2019 has returned with the rest of the world slipping into severe recessionary spiral. So now the elite need another liquidity crisis so they can turn on the money printers again. They will need some event to disrupt the conservatives in the House that are now blocking the ever increasing government spending needed to sustain this house of cards into 2025.
For sure the massive bubble into 2025 is coming but they need first to overcome some obstacles that have returned from 2019, such as the orangeutan hair populism. Nothing a good crisis like C19 can not fix again. You need to become a bit more sophisticated.
====
From the comments:
> “😂😂😂👌 That's a good joke. Now that institutions and banks are interested in buying and want to offer BTC, no new ath... 🤡🤡🤡 Good luck, man!”
@Andbcoin, institutions will not rush in to buy right after a 150% pump, caused by retail FOMO being dumped on by the insiders who realize that retail are suckers for a narrative. After the ETFs are approved, institutions that want to start hedging the ultimate demise of the US dollar, will accumulate on cycle lows, because they understand very well that the dollar will skyrocket from 2026 in its last hooray before the Thucydides trap finally dethrones it as the world reserve currency and liquid Eurodollar market.
In short, institutions are much more sophisticated because they have the economies-of-scale to hire people to study reality. Retail are dumb a.f., because individuals employ daft heuristics and are easily swayed by propaganda narratives.
Thusly the looming top and bubble heading into 2025, must be driven the same way the 2021 top and bubble was, by flooding idiots with stimulus checks and liquidity. In order to do that, you first need a crisis, as the excuse and pretext to drop money from helicopters.
The metaphoric 747 is running out of idiot fuel. Stall incoming. I do not know if you noticed, but interest rates are very high and people are loaded to the gills with credit card debt that they are paying 24% interest on. Institutions are not going to bail out you idiots. They will wait for you all to default and sell the looming bottom.
(Bitcoin, SP500, Real Estate | Jason Pizzino)
@JasonPizzinoOfficial Jason I don’t deny the existence of a real estate cycle but it is not a universal hammer and not every market is its nail. The real estate market (which some characterize as 18 years peak-to-peak or trough-to-trough) is not perfectly repeatable. There’s significant variance from 14 to 21 years, with and without a significant mid-cycle. Moreover the stock markets do not appear to be solely or even primarily governed by the real estate cycle. For example, the 2000-2001 mid-cycle was rather mild for real-estate, but egregious crash for the stonks with the 2007 S&P top a double-top of the Dotcom peak. Significant pullback in late 1971 one year before the top in late 1972 which may apply if we are expecting a cycle top in 2025. Moreover from 1969 to 1980 was basically flat due to a monetary disinhibition (end of gold standard) and concomitant stagflation which we have now amplified to the nth degree. You should not continue to just apply the variable real estate periodicity blindly to the other markets. Martin Armstrong has instead for example, fed the entire detailed history of human civilization into his AI data mining Socrates which discovered periodicity and correlations which your overly simplistic model can not. Socrates says something dire/significant will occur in H1 2024 probably around the Ides of March again.
Specifically the liquidity that has been feeding the markets has been the draining of the reverse repos into Treasuries with the government spending the funds into the economy. This dries up as of March, as well the Fed’s BTFP (bank rescue) expires March 11. The largest bank failures ever (greater than the GFC) occurred in 2023. The Fed prevented these from being marked-to-market with the BTFP. There was no need to allow for a crisis and inject massive new liquidity in 2023, as inflation was still running high. But now the same global stress that appeared in 2019 has returned with the rest of the world slipping into severe recessionary spiral. So now the elite need another liquidity crisis so they can turn on the money printers again. They will need some event to disrupt the conservatives in the House that are now blocking the ever increasing government spending needed to sustain this house of cards into 2025.
For sure the massive bubble into 2025 is coming but they need first to overcome some obstacles that have returned from 2019, such as the orangeutan hair populism. Nothing a good crisis like C19 can not fix again. You need to become a bit more sophisticated.
====
From the comments:
> “😂😂😂👌 That's a good joke. Now that institutions and banks are interested in buying and want to offer BTC, no new ath... 🤡🤡🤡 Good luck, man!”
@Andbcoin, institutions will not rush in to buy right after a 150% pump, caused by retail FOMO being dumped on by the insiders who realize that retail are suckers for a narrative. After the ETFs are approved, institutions that want to start hedging the ultimate demise of the US dollar, will accumulate on cycle lows, because they understand very well that the dollar will skyrocket from 2026 in its last hooray before the Thucydides trap finally dethrones it as the world reserve currency and liquid Eurodollar market.
In short, institutions are much more sophisticated because they have the economies-of-scale to hire people to study reality. Retail are dumb a.f., because individuals employ daft heuristics and are easily swayed by propaganda narratives.
Thusly the looming top and bubble heading into 2025, must be driven the same way the 2021 top and bubble was, by flooding idiots with stimulus checks and liquidity. In order to do that, you first need a crisis, as the excuse and pretext to drop money from helicopters.
The metaphoric 747 is running out of idiot fuel. Stall incoming. I do not know if you noticed, but interest rates are very high and people are loaded to the gills with credit card debt that they are paying 24% interest on. Institutions are not going to bail out you idiots. They will wait for you all to default and sell the looming bottom.
Comment:
INTERACTION IN THE COMMENTS IS WORTHWHILE UP TO THE LIMIT OF DIMINISHING RETURNS WHERE MOST OF THE NUANCE HAS BEEN ADDRESSED.
From the comments:
@btcusdhappyPaella56213, perhaps what you meant to write is that a 747 can stall even with thrust? Which is correct, for example climbing at too steep of an angle with insufficient airspeed. But I do not see how that obviates or has anything to do with my analogy? If anything that would bolster my stance that this recent acceleration is too steep to be sustainable. Too high, too fast, too early in the 4 year cycle, especially given a high interest rate, stagflationary macroeconomic environment where the retail hopium (thruster) fuel is limited because for example they are up their ears in 24% APR credit card debt. Volume has been declining during this entire bull trap bounce with a slight rise for this blow off top acceleration. Rising on declining volume is not a bullish sign.
====
From the comments:
> “while you could be true , EW is completely speculative , you're right, Crypto can be zero , but only after Quantum computers kick in might be that case. Elliott Wave wasted so much of time and money for many. It's beautiful to count waves, it's inherently bearish in nature”
@kkandru, the crux of my speculation here is not depending on EW theory. Given the update yesterday from Steve Courtney that shows I was correct that the top in 2025 will be at most 70k, then on a risk weighted basis, it is much wiser to sell ~40 - 45k this early in the 4 year cycle before the halving. Or at least hedge my hodl stack with some long-dated puts as I am doing.
IF WE KNOW NOW THAT THE MAX IN 2025 WILL BE $70K IS IT NOT WISE TO SELL AT $40+K GIVEN THAT 2025 IS SO FAR AWAY?
Some commentators seem to placate their confirmation basis and comfort themselves by assuming I failed to buy the 15.4k low (which is an incorrect assumption which my public record disproves). While what it more likely represents is how late they are. Maybe they failed to sell the last top or bought at higher prices on the way down being fooled by Michael Saylor or Elon Musk. I was around in 2012 when Bitcoin was 10 dollars. Everyone is buying too late now. Bitcoin is approaching its apogee in terms of how much fuel can be squeezed out of plebs, because the pleb civilization is bankrupt. So whilst many are hoping for a new ATH because they were so late to get into Bitcoin, the smart money is cashing out of the pleb impostor fork of Bitcoin and preparing for the 2026 totalitarianism transition to a new world order, where the legacy protocol Bitcoin rises as the 1988 Economist Magazine cover story Phoenix from the ashes of Western civilization to enslave humanity in stark fiscal discipline of a fixed money supply (not even the gold standard was that harsh) and UNDEFEATED THROUGHOUT ALL HISTORY OF MANKIND vortex of power-law distribution of wealth concentrating all the wealth among the 0.1%.
So while these boastful idiots think they are on top, they are really on the bottom of the boot and about to have their faces ground into the mud by reality. As it should be.
Their hopium is they are not too late and that institutions will bail them out. As if dumb a.f., late a.f. retail could actually dump their bags on institutions. Lol. Never.
It is always the other way around that we the smart money are dumping on the retail hopium addicts.
@kkandru, dismissing EW as speculative is a crude interpretation of what is meant by those sophisticated who admit it. EW is only speculative to the extent that the future possibilities could invalidate a posited wave count and structure. Triangulation of multiple datums convert independent into fully constrained, dependent variables. So while I became aware today that the ending diagonal hypothesis is invalid, the two possible competing theses still lean more to my A-B-C corrective wave (as a Three Hills and a Mountain) inside of an overall W-X-Y corrective bear market that will not be completed until around the April halving. Especially factoring in (triangulating) all the corroborating data such as the new epiphany about Steve’s 5.3 ratio theory posted in the updates yesterday. This published idea is not mainly supported by EW. The 5.3 ratio theory is perhaps one of the strongest datums underlying this published idea. Also if the current is a leading diagonal terminating only in wave 1 of a bullish 5 waves into 2025, that egregious +150% wave 1 would indicate that extremely high prices such as $200+k would be reached in 2025 and that simply is not credible.
You clearly do not understand the technology and what is going on there with the game theory of Bitcoin. The impostor Bitcoin (i.e. the 2017 softfork that enabled scaling) is going to $0 and that is inarguable. Legacy protocol Bitcoin (not BSV, not BCH) is rising to become the world’s reserve currency to enslave all of you in 666 national digital currencies in what is historically known as a two-tiered monetary system. You will not be able to afford the Bitcoin transaction fees after 2032, only milionaires and billionaires (and central banks) will be using Bitcoin. Bitcoin is not for us. We were fooled. Satoshi designed Bitcoin to deal with quantum computing as was pointed out only by myself. I am the only person to ever correctly explain why Satoshi employed double-hashing.
You are outside your depth of competency here on Bitcoin. The price speculation is of course speculative but the technology issues are clearly outside what you understand well. You are just regurgitating some quantum computing trope you read.
From the comments:
@btcusdhappyPaella56213, perhaps what you meant to write is that a 747 can stall even with thrust? Which is correct, for example climbing at too steep of an angle with insufficient airspeed. But I do not see how that obviates or has anything to do with my analogy? If anything that would bolster my stance that this recent acceleration is too steep to be sustainable. Too high, too fast, too early in the 4 year cycle, especially given a high interest rate, stagflationary macroeconomic environment where the retail hopium (thruster) fuel is limited because for example they are up their ears in 24% APR credit card debt. Volume has been declining during this entire bull trap bounce with a slight rise for this blow off top acceleration. Rising on declining volume is not a bullish sign.
====
From the comments:
> “while you could be true , EW is completely speculative , you're right, Crypto can be zero , but only after Quantum computers kick in might be that case. Elliott Wave wasted so much of time and money for many. It's beautiful to count waves, it's inherently bearish in nature”
@kkandru, the crux of my speculation here is not depending on EW theory. Given the update yesterday from Steve Courtney that shows I was correct that the top in 2025 will be at most 70k, then on a risk weighted basis, it is much wiser to sell ~40 - 45k this early in the 4 year cycle before the halving. Or at least hedge my hodl stack with some long-dated puts as I am doing.
IF WE KNOW NOW THAT THE MAX IN 2025 WILL BE $70K IS IT NOT WISE TO SELL AT $40+K GIVEN THAT 2025 IS SO FAR AWAY?
Some commentators seem to placate their confirmation basis and comfort themselves by assuming I failed to buy the 15.4k low (which is an incorrect assumption which my public record disproves). While what it more likely represents is how late they are. Maybe they failed to sell the last top or bought at higher prices on the way down being fooled by Michael Saylor or Elon Musk. I was around in 2012 when Bitcoin was 10 dollars. Everyone is buying too late now. Bitcoin is approaching its apogee in terms of how much fuel can be squeezed out of plebs, because the pleb civilization is bankrupt. So whilst many are hoping for a new ATH because they were so late to get into Bitcoin, the smart money is cashing out of the pleb impostor fork of Bitcoin and preparing for the 2026 totalitarianism transition to a new world order, where the legacy protocol Bitcoin rises as the 1988 Economist Magazine cover story Phoenix from the ashes of Western civilization to enslave humanity in stark fiscal discipline of a fixed money supply (not even the gold standard was that harsh) and UNDEFEATED THROUGHOUT ALL HISTORY OF MANKIND vortex of power-law distribution of wealth concentrating all the wealth among the 0.1%.
So while these boastful idiots think they are on top, they are really on the bottom of the boot and about to have their faces ground into the mud by reality. As it should be.
Their hopium is they are not too late and that institutions will bail them out. As if dumb a.f., late a.f. retail could actually dump their bags on institutions. Lol. Never.
It is always the other way around that we the smart money are dumping on the retail hopium addicts.
@kkandru, dismissing EW as speculative is a crude interpretation of what is meant by those sophisticated who admit it. EW is only speculative to the extent that the future possibilities could invalidate a posited wave count and structure. Triangulation of multiple datums convert independent into fully constrained, dependent variables. So while I became aware today that the ending diagonal hypothesis is invalid, the two possible competing theses still lean more to my A-B-C corrective wave (as a Three Hills and a Mountain) inside of an overall W-X-Y corrective bear market that will not be completed until around the April halving. Especially factoring in (triangulating) all the corroborating data such as the new epiphany about Steve’s 5.3 ratio theory posted in the updates yesterday. This published idea is not mainly supported by EW. The 5.3 ratio theory is perhaps one of the strongest datums underlying this published idea. Also if the current is a leading diagonal terminating only in wave 1 of a bullish 5 waves into 2025, that egregious +150% wave 1 would indicate that extremely high prices such as $200+k would be reached in 2025 and that simply is not credible.
You clearly do not understand the technology and what is going on there with the game theory of Bitcoin. The impostor Bitcoin (i.e. the 2017 softfork that enabled scaling) is going to $0 and that is inarguable. Legacy protocol Bitcoin (not BSV, not BCH) is rising to become the world’s reserve currency to enslave all of you in 666 national digital currencies in what is historically known as a two-tiered monetary system. You will not be able to afford the Bitcoin transaction fees after 2032, only milionaires and billionaires (and central banks) will be using Bitcoin. Bitcoin is not for us. We were fooled. Satoshi designed Bitcoin to deal with quantum computing as was pointed out only by myself. I am the only person to ever correctly explain why Satoshi employed double-hashing.
You are outside your depth of competency here on Bitcoin. The price speculation is of course speculative but the technology issues are clearly outside what you understand well. You are just regurgitating some quantum computing trope you read.
Comment:
From the comments:
@bwfisher83, to understand what is driving WWIII we must first understand who created the war in Ukraine and why they need this war. We need to understand that there was a coup d'etat in the USA in 2020 and why they needed this and why they needed the C19 hoax. We need to dig into a lot of detail to understand what I understand that the average person is uninformed about. I did a detailed, deep drive on 9-11 a few years ago. I know with great confidence that was done by the same uniparty Neocons who are launching these wars. In 2001 they only needed the first salvo of the Patriot Act and what not. The pressure on them is intense now and they are becoming extremely desperate to hold onto to their power. So they are becoming evermore aggressive and their risk taking is becoming evermore outlandish (until it all blows up in their face eventually later this decade). Btw, I will soon publish (on Substack) a blog refuting virology once and for all, and I challenge any expert to refute it. You could start with my Quora answer about George Soros. Note that is necessarily incomplete (or steps outside the relevant topic of the question depending on your perspective) and too much crammed into the small limit of space allowed for a Quora answer.
I interact with YT personalities to test my hypotheses. To make sure I haven’t overlooked some factor. I find that framing my understanding in the context of what other well known influencers are presenting may help to form understanding for those who consume my posts. It helps I think to have some context for others to compare to. Pretty much I do not shut myself out from any place I might find some new information. I have an inquisitive, curious temperament. Steve Courtney’s 5.3 ratio discovery is profound and I think should be considered valuable orthogonal to any BS he may be selling. Focusing is an important skill as well. But as in all things in life there is a yin and yang to it.
@bwfisher83, to understand what is driving WWIII we must first understand who created the war in Ukraine and why they need this war. We need to understand that there was a coup d'etat in the USA in 2020 and why they needed this and why they needed the C19 hoax. We need to dig into a lot of detail to understand what I understand that the average person is uninformed about. I did a detailed, deep drive on 9-11 a few years ago. I know with great confidence that was done by the same uniparty Neocons who are launching these wars. In 2001 they only needed the first salvo of the Patriot Act and what not. The pressure on them is intense now and they are becoming extremely desperate to hold onto to their power. So they are becoming evermore aggressive and their risk taking is becoming evermore outlandish (until it all blows up in their face eventually later this decade). Btw, I will soon publish (on Substack) a blog refuting virology once and for all, and I challenge any expert to refute it. You could start with my Quora answer about George Soros. Note that is necessarily incomplete (or steps outside the relevant topic of the question depending on your perspective) and too much crammed into the small limit of space allowed for a Quora answer.
I interact with YT personalities to test my hypotheses. To make sure I haven’t overlooked some factor. I find that framing my understanding in the context of what other well known influencers are presenting may help to form understanding for those who consume my posts. It helps I think to have some context for others to compare to. Pretty much I do not shut myself out from any place I might find some new information. I have an inquisitive, curious temperament. Steve Courtney’s 5.3 ratio discovery is profound and I think should be considered valuable orthogonal to any BS he may be selling. Focusing is an important skill as well. But as in all things in life there is a yin and yang to it.
Comment:
Armstrong’s private blog containing the Socrates AI Forecast array on BlackRock points to BlackRock failing in a massive Panic Cycle by 2026 due to a liquidity crisis as its customers try to withdraw funds from a fund that is too large and illiquid. The liquidity crunch will ensue in 2025. Also liquidity issues will amplify volatility in 2024 as well.
This is perfectly correlating to my expectation on my latest Tradingview idea, which calls for a bout of volatility to the downside before or around the Bitcoin halving, and then 2026 being the end of the impostor Bitcoin after a doomsday triple top ~70k in 2025.
Note this is why they will need the capital controls in place for the 2026 tax reporting season (for taxable year 2025) and the CBDCs. This why they are going to trap all the capital in the Hotel California-esque ETFs. “You can check in anytime you like, but you can never leave.”
NOT YOUR KEYS, NOT YOUR CRYPTO.
www.armstrongeconomi...ecm-middle-east-war/
This is perfectly correlating to my expectation on my latest Tradingview idea, which calls for a bout of volatility to the downside before or around the Bitcoin halving, and then 2026 being the end of the impostor Bitcoin after a doomsday triple top ~70k in 2025.
Note this is why they will need the capital controls in place for the 2026 tax reporting season (for taxable year 2025) and the CBDCs. This why they are going to trap all the capital in the Hotel California-esque ETFs. “You can check in anytime you like, but you can never leave.”
NOT YOUR KEYS, NOT YOUR CRYPTO.
www.armstrongeconomi...ecm-middle-east-war/
Comment:
Anyone who doubts my prediction for ETH to rally (originally 2600 to 3200, but possibly only 2300 to 2400) before crashing to 600 should watch this. Why 600? Because the bearish harmonic points there and this bounce off the bottom is wave X of a W-X-Y bear market. The bull market has not started yet. Prepare to be shocked Steve.
youtu.be/xjfWN4WbSp8?t=227 ← click for chart
(WARNING: IS ETH ABOUT TO CRASH!? HERE’S WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW)
@CryptoCrewUniversity Steve notice the distance from 9 to 10, should equal from 11 to 12. Thus ETH may go higher before crashing. My thesis since Oct 2022 is playing out as I predicted, except lower expectations for this rally based on your video. Also notice previously from 11 to green to 12 was split into two major moves the second slightly more than first, which concurs with ~2300 to 2350. This 4 year cycle is MUCH weaker than any prior. Will end with a triple top 70k and 2026 Bitcoin will go to 0 as I warned you in 2022.
youtu.be/xjfWN4WbSp8?t=227 ← click for chart
(WARNING: IS ETH ABOUT TO CRASH!? HERE’S WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW)
@CryptoCrewUniversity Steve notice the distance from 9 to 10, should equal from 11 to 12. Thus ETH may go higher before crashing. My thesis since Oct 2022 is playing out as I predicted, except lower expectations for this rally based on your video. Also notice previously from 11 to green to 12 was split into two major moves the second slightly more than first, which concurs with ~2300 to 2350. This 4 year cycle is MUCH weaker than any prior. Will end with a triple top 70k and 2026 Bitcoin will go to 0 as I warned you in 2022.
Comment:
Prices I expect for a possible top.
BTC 40 - 41k
ETH 2300
ENJ 0.38
ETC 23 - 24
SOL ~69 (already topped)
GALA 0.0285 - 0.0345 (probably 0.03 - 0.033)
APE 1.75 - 2.15 (but most likely 1.75 - 1.80)
Oh crap, ETCUSD has very similar pattern as BTCUSD did in 2018, before the final drop from 6k to 3k. Below $7 incoming after this final bull trap bounce.
Many crypto FOMOium fools are about to get REKTD.
BTC 40 - 41k
ETH 2300
ENJ 0.38
ETC 23 - 24
SOL ~69 (already topped)
GALA 0.0285 - 0.0345 (probably 0.03 - 0.033)
APE 1.75 - 2.15 (but most likely 1.75 - 1.80)
Oh crap, ETCUSD has very similar pattern as BTCUSD did in 2018, before the final drop from 6k to 3k. Below $7 incoming after this final bull trap bounce.
Many crypto FOMOium fools are about to get REKTD.
Comment:
From the comments:
> The $38,000-41,000 zone is Death Valley for BTC.
>
> BTC has not found enough organic buyers since the opening price (0:00 UTC: $37,300). After aggressive action by the binance operator, there were no organic purchases above $38,000 despite three attempts for an hour.
> A single trader on Binance pushes the BTC price above $38,000.
>
> Fully rigged BTC price market at this point. The price action for the last hours is again controlled by a single participant from Binance. There has been a lot of speculation on this subject for several hours now. Taking a long position on the binance while squeezing short positions on the bybit perps.
>
> Let no one even try to suggest that I am unaware that such manipulations are normal in the markets.
>
> Not in such proportions and with such determination and not in context with what happened with binance this week. The situation is obvious. I am still adding to a short position. Stop order is reset. If this operator manages to get the BTC price over $39,000, I will sell even more. I am sure that market participants like me will regulate this sick situation.
>
> I have nothing against BTC, I am a long-term BULL myself. Always willing to buy after large declines and when the right momentum appears.
@goodblackcat, historically massive option market positions can and I quote, “send Bitcoin up 300% and down 75% in a single day.”
Overall the crypto charts look horrible, with bearish RSI divergences on all timeframes (as does the S&P stonks which fell out of a bearish rising wedge but could make on more drive to a high to test the bottom of the wedge it fell out of), except nearly all crypto USD(T) pairs have bullish RSI diverge on the 3d chart. Also several of the altcoins have a bull flag such as ETCUSD. Thus the reason for the topping prices I posted last night to the idea update. So far only BTC and ETH have moved strongly enough towards a new drive to a high, but I am thinking the rest of the altcoins will follow today or so? Also looks to me ETH is going to break out towards 2300?
Indeed the smart money is grabbing the liquidity of the short-term leveraged shorts first, before they will take this down hard for next few months. I can not rule out a significant pullback and then one final drive to a high perhaps in January? But for sure by March crypto will have crashed. The crypto markets are dead. This ETF hopium will not lift crypto out of the doldrums of stagflation and the pre-halving crypto winter. Too many newbies and naive forgot that the crypto bull market in the 4 year cycle does not start until after the halving.
> The $38,000-41,000 zone is Death Valley for BTC.
>
> BTC has not found enough organic buyers since the opening price (0:00 UTC: $37,300). After aggressive action by the binance operator, there were no organic purchases above $38,000 despite three attempts for an hour.
> A single trader on Binance pushes the BTC price above $38,000.
>
> Fully rigged BTC price market at this point. The price action for the last hours is again controlled by a single participant from Binance. There has been a lot of speculation on this subject for several hours now. Taking a long position on the binance while squeezing short positions on the bybit perps.
>
> Let no one even try to suggest that I am unaware that such manipulations are normal in the markets.
>
> Not in such proportions and with such determination and not in context with what happened with binance this week. The situation is obvious. I am still adding to a short position. Stop order is reset. If this operator manages to get the BTC price over $39,000, I will sell even more. I am sure that market participants like me will regulate this sick situation.
>
> I have nothing against BTC, I am a long-term BULL myself. Always willing to buy after large declines and when the right momentum appears.
@goodblackcat, historically massive option market positions can and I quote, “send Bitcoin up 300% and down 75% in a single day.”
Overall the crypto charts look horrible, with bearish RSI divergences on all timeframes (as does the S&P stonks which fell out of a bearish rising wedge but could make on more drive to a high to test the bottom of the wedge it fell out of), except nearly all crypto USD(T) pairs have bullish RSI diverge on the 3d chart. Also several of the altcoins have a bull flag such as ETCUSD. Thus the reason for the topping prices I posted last night to the idea update. So far only BTC and ETH have moved strongly enough towards a new drive to a high, but I am thinking the rest of the altcoins will follow today or so? Also looks to me ETH is going to break out towards 2300?
Indeed the smart money is grabbing the liquidity of the short-term leveraged shorts first, before they will take this down hard for next few months. I can not rule out a significant pullback and then one final drive to a high perhaps in January? But for sure by March crypto will have crashed. The crypto markets are dead. This ETF hopium will not lift crypto out of the doldrums of stagflation and the pre-halving crypto winter. Too many newbies and naive forgot that the crypto bull market in the 4 year cycle does not start until after the halving.
Comment:
youtu.be/abxE0-Dqlvg
(The December Breakout Is Real For Ethereum)
Krown you about to get REKTD with your bull market nonsense. That is a bearish rising wedge, not an ascending triangle.
youtu.be/-MMmGKtsrCk
(The #1 Altcoin Chart No One Is Watching | The 'EXBS Index' | DataDash)
That is a bearish rising wedge (not a bullish ascending triangle as you and many others incorrectly annotate it) on the weekly chart, which is also a 5 wave leading diagonal. Thus it must be wave 1 of a 5 wave bullish structure (can not be an ending diagonal). Thus wave 2 incoming could nearly retest the lows (not a lower-low!) before the halving thus before the bull market ensues in earnest. I charted this on my public trading view.
16:00 You slaughtered the inane narrative that the Bitcoin ETFs can drive new ATH.
====
youtu.be/17oGYIQlBbU
(Why This Bitcoin Move Will Shock Everyone in 2024 | Robert Prechter)
If Elliot Wave specialist Prechter is correct, then his 3 (as you illustrated it) could the end of the first wave down of a expanded flat 3 wave correction. I would have Bitcoin coming back up to a triple top ~70k by H2 2025 for the 2nd wave of the correction, then down into the abyss ~0 for the final third wave by May 2026. From there the Bitcoin market would reset. Which entirely fits with my thesis that the impostor Bitcoin (the 2017 softfork which broke the Nash equilibrium creating 13+ million tokens which are ANYONE CAN SPEND) will be destroyed. All the details are on my public trading view. As Prechter points out that the final "c" wave of an expanded flat are waterfall collapses, very fast and devastating. Well I know exactly what could cause such a dramatic face ripping selloff. The legacy protocol miners will take the 13+ million tokens as donations, no need to even have the private keys because they are ANYONE CAN SPEND.
What I find even more interesting is that the legacy protocol Bitcoin (the one Satoshi created, not the current impostor) continues to coexist with the softfork (they will hard fork off from each other when the tokens are taken as donations) can rise as the 1988 Economist Magazine's cover story Phoenix from the ashes of the looming WWIII, as the new world reserve currency in the multipolar new world order that will replace the death of the dollar in said Thucydides trap underway (after a massive crash upwards of the dollar in the final EuroDollar driven liquidity crisis). The legacy as a global reserve currency used only by the wealthy and central banks, will not need transaction scaling that Prechter laments. IOW, Satoshi was not designing a payment system, but rather the new global order. And by the way, the design of Bitcoin was anonymously publicly leaked in 1998 on the 10 year anniversary of its 1988 announcement, then launched 10 years later, then public stampede 10 years later. Thus 2028 it rises. I would be grateful if you would forward my comments to Prechter and his son Elliot.
(The December Breakout Is Real For Ethereum)
Krown you about to get REKTD with your bull market nonsense. That is a bearish rising wedge, not an ascending triangle.
youtu.be/-MMmGKtsrCk
(The #1 Altcoin Chart No One Is Watching | The 'EXBS Index' | DataDash)
That is a bearish rising wedge (not a bullish ascending triangle as you and many others incorrectly annotate it) on the weekly chart, which is also a 5 wave leading diagonal. Thus it must be wave 1 of a 5 wave bullish structure (can not be an ending diagonal). Thus wave 2 incoming could nearly retest the lows (not a lower-low!) before the halving thus before the bull market ensues in earnest. I charted this on my public trading view.
16:00 You slaughtered the inane narrative that the Bitcoin ETFs can drive new ATH.
====
youtu.be/17oGYIQlBbU
(Why This Bitcoin Move Will Shock Everyone in 2024 | Robert Prechter)
If Elliot Wave specialist Prechter is correct, then his 3 (as you illustrated it) could the end of the first wave down of a expanded flat 3 wave correction. I would have Bitcoin coming back up to a triple top ~70k by H2 2025 for the 2nd wave of the correction, then down into the abyss ~0 for the final third wave by May 2026. From there the Bitcoin market would reset. Which entirely fits with my thesis that the impostor Bitcoin (the 2017 softfork which broke the Nash equilibrium creating 13+ million tokens which are ANYONE CAN SPEND) will be destroyed. All the details are on my public trading view. As Prechter points out that the final "c" wave of an expanded flat are waterfall collapses, very fast and devastating. Well I know exactly what could cause such a dramatic face ripping selloff. The legacy protocol miners will take the 13+ million tokens as donations, no need to even have the private keys because they are ANYONE CAN SPEND.
What I find even more interesting is that the legacy protocol Bitcoin (the one Satoshi created, not the current impostor) continues to coexist with the softfork (they will hard fork off from each other when the tokens are taken as donations) can rise as the 1988 Economist Magazine's cover story Phoenix from the ashes of the looming WWIII, as the new world reserve currency in the multipolar new world order that will replace the death of the dollar in said Thucydides trap underway (after a massive crash upwards of the dollar in the final EuroDollar driven liquidity crisis). The legacy as a global reserve currency used only by the wealthy and central banks, will not need transaction scaling that Prechter laments. IOW, Satoshi was not designing a payment system, but rather the new global order. And by the way, the design of Bitcoin was anonymously publicly leaked in 1998 on the 10 year anniversary of its 1988 announcement, then launched 10 years later, then public stampede 10 years later. Thus 2028 it rises. I would be grateful if you would forward my comments to Prechter and his son Elliot.
Comment:
Possibly one more, final drive to a high imminent.
Comment:
My comment:
youtu.be/8q7NQyhhEc4?t=353
(WARNING: SUPPER GUPPY JUST FLIPPED GREEN! | Crypto Crew U.)
Covering all the possibilities. Wise. Do not commit to bullish here. I am happy you corrected the public that has been claiming you were pushing a trope that says Bitcoin held its market structure. Now you have pointed out that has not necessarily been the case. I will cite this video on my public trading view.
youtu.be/8q7NQyhhEc4?t=353
(WARNING: SUPPER GUPPY JUST FLIPPED GREEN! | Crypto Crew U.)
Covering all the possibilities. Wise. Do not commit to bullish here. I am happy you corrected the public that has been claiming you were pushing a trope that says Bitcoin held its market structure. Now you have pointed out that has not necessarily been the case. I will cite this video on my public trading view.
Comment:
Someone commented on a published idea of mine from 2022, which caused me to realize it is still on point and applicable to this recent idea.
Comment:
youtu.be/AvQp5e3tapE
(It's The Dumb Money Buying Bitcoin - Not The Whales - BTC Wyckoff Distribution Update | Ron Walker)
(It's The Dumb Money Buying Bitcoin - Not The Whales - BTC Wyckoff Distribution Update | Ron Walker)
Comment:
Gammon's reason why the Fed will not renew the BTFP and my comment:
youtu.be/ilfzGplcT-U?t=731
(WARNING: This Is When The Banking System Will Fail (Date Revealed) | George Gammon)
Rather I think the Fed will not renew because they will want to stress test the system so they are not moving forward blind. They will posit that maybe the original crisis was due to the rate of interest rate rise and with much intervening time in which banks have been able to hedge and adjust to the higher interest rate environment. But I think the deeper reason is more conspiratorial that they need a banking crisis so they can test how their FedNow will be employed to cause bank runs when they are reading to entirely centralize the banking system circa 2026.
youtu.be/ilfzGplcT-U?t=731
(WARNING: This Is When The Banking System Will Fail (Date Revealed) | George Gammon)
Rather I think the Fed will not renew because they will want to stress test the system so they are not moving forward blind. They will posit that maybe the original crisis was due to the rate of interest rate rise and with much intervening time in which banks have been able to hedge and adjust to the higher interest rate environment. But I think the deeper reason is more conspiratorial that they need a banking crisis so they can test how their FedNow will be employed to cause bank runs when they are reading to entirely centralize the banking system circa 2026.
Comment:
From the comments:
@GDuBFX, I can not see any of your charts here in the comments on this page. I do not know if other readers also can not see your links. I will post my reply to the updates on my idea, so that everyone can see your chart (I dug the link out of my notifications which is the only place I can access it, not here on this page for some unknown reason).
You have mislabeled your chart because you failed to note that the trading range was between 17590 and 25215. Thus when the price exploded to 32k, that was already phase E of the prior Wycoff accumulation. This started a Wycoff distribution which is now in the UTAD final test (aka spring) to be followed by a plummeting price in a new phase D.
@GDuBFX, I can not see any of your charts here in the comments on this page. I do not know if other readers also can not see your links. I will post my reply to the updates on my idea, so that everyone can see your chart (I dug the link out of my notifications which is the only place I can access it, not here on this page for some unknown reason).
You have mislabeled your chart because you failed to note that the trading range was between 17590 and 25215. Thus when the price exploded to 32k, that was already phase E of the prior Wycoff accumulation. This started a Wycoff distribution which is now in the UTAD final test (aka spring) to be followed by a plummeting price in a new phase D.
Comment:
Follow-up response from the comments:
> images.prismic.io/3c...c-fe2d7f2fe7d8_2.png
> miro.medium.com/v2/r...aDkgynKOUBU-2J6g.png
@GDuBFX, cripes man, the SC is 17590 and the top of the bounce from AR is 25215 which thus defines the trading range (aka TR). Thus after the price rallied from the LPS as it crossed above 25215, it left the trading range (TR) and was in Phase E already. Thus the 31 - 32k level was already starting the Wycoff distribution as Phase E of the prior Wycoff accumulation had immediately transitioned into a Wycoff distribution. Please do not make me repeat myself again. Open your f-ing eyes. The UTAD on your chart is in the incorrect location. It should be at the current price level ~39k which is the final Spring test of the Wycoff distribution. We will have a crash soon. Price might tag 39 - 40k first.
Also it is probably incorrect to interpret the price action from the 15.4k bottom as a Wycoff accumulation. Appears to be a rare Three Hills and a Mountain pattern, as I documented in the idea itself.
And wtf is your problem, that you did not even click the correct Reply. You replied to yourself instead of replying to my reply.
Again I can not see any links or charts you included in your reply. Some issue or bug with Trading view, at least for me. But the idea that Phase E must continue higher and higher is not necessarily the case. Can transition directly into a Wycoff distribution instead of progressively higher prices during Phase E. Especially when we consider that the overall pattern may be a Three Hills and a Mountain.
====
My comment:
youtu.be/RlhWhQSWils
(How the Next Round of Bailouts will be Reserved for the Elites)
Tl;dr money injected into the economy must be sanitized such that it can not be spent on things that drive up inflation. Can you say cashless economy with CBDC and dystopian capital controls? Can you say New Green Deal as a BS pretext to limit what people are allowed to spend their money on? I know you can. Note allowing people to spend on stonks and crypto ETFs will not be inflationary if that all gets locked up by a CBDC so that in Hotel California-esque fashion, you can check in anytime you like but you can never checkout.
> images.prismic.io/3c...c-fe2d7f2fe7d8_2.png
> miro.medium.com/v2/r...aDkgynKOUBU-2J6g.png
@GDuBFX, cripes man, the SC is 17590 and the top of the bounce from AR is 25215 which thus defines the trading range (aka TR). Thus after the price rallied from the LPS as it crossed above 25215, it left the trading range (TR) and was in Phase E already. Thus the 31 - 32k level was already starting the Wycoff distribution as Phase E of the prior Wycoff accumulation had immediately transitioned into a Wycoff distribution. Please do not make me repeat myself again. Open your f-ing eyes. The UTAD on your chart is in the incorrect location. It should be at the current price level ~39k which is the final Spring test of the Wycoff distribution. We will have a crash soon. Price might tag 39 - 40k first.
Also it is probably incorrect to interpret the price action from the 15.4k bottom as a Wycoff accumulation. Appears to be a rare Three Hills and a Mountain pattern, as I documented in the idea itself.
And wtf is your problem, that you did not even click the correct Reply. You replied to yourself instead of replying to my reply.
Again I can not see any links or charts you included in your reply. Some issue or bug with Trading view, at least for me. But the idea that Phase E must continue higher and higher is not necessarily the case. Can transition directly into a Wycoff distribution instead of progressively higher prices during Phase E. Especially when we consider that the overall pattern may be a Three Hills and a Mountain.
====
My comment:
youtu.be/RlhWhQSWils
(How the Next Round of Bailouts will be Reserved for the Elites)
Tl;dr money injected into the economy must be sanitized such that it can not be spent on things that drive up inflation. Can you say cashless economy with CBDC and dystopian capital controls? Can you say New Green Deal as a BS pretext to limit what people are allowed to spend their money on? I know you can. Note allowing people to spend on stonks and crypto ETFs will not be inflationary if that all gets locked up by a CBDC so that in Hotel California-esque fashion, you can check in anytime you like but you can never checkout.
Comment:
Typo: s/when they are reading/when they are ready/
====
Covid-23 has been announced? Here we go again, 2020 repeating because it is an election year and they need to stop Trump again?
====
From the comments:
@zvonyo, that BlackRock disclaimer from their ETF application is screen captured on my blog where I discuss the ANYONECANSPEND attack (and to the Tradingview mods, I am not selling anything offsite nor do I have any sponsors so this is not advertising). It is not necessarily that BlackRock will fork Bitcoin, as BlackRock will be forced to choose which fork they are hodling and which one they will sell if they hodl in legacy addresses (thus not ANYONECANSPEND) and thus receive the free airdrop of non-legacy. It will be the miners taking the 13+ million ANYONECANSPEND Bitcoins as generous donations, that will force the non-legacy (i.e. 2017 softfork impostor Bitcion) protocol to hard fork (fck) off from (the bona fide Bitcoin) Satoshi’s immutable legacy protocol, because that will be a violation of the new protocol. To protect yourself, make sure you hodl all your Bitcoins in addresses that begin with 1 not 3, bc1 nor any other obfuscation for legacy addresses that the scammers come up with. I suppose it is possible that BlackRock will invest a lot in Bitcoin mining and help drive the Schelling point for when the ANYONECANSPEND restoration of the Nash equilibrium {but that is not essential nor relevant to the logic of the inevitability of the attack}. Anyway, it appears to me that BlackRock and the new ETFs will be where all the institutions go to die as all their investment will go “poof it’s gone.” NOT YOUR LEGACY KEYS, NOT YOUR BITCORN. The 2017 softfork broke the Nash equilibrium because it created this huge 13+ million booty that gives the miners a different strategy than benevolence. It incentivizes the miners to force the 2017 softfork to fork (fck) off because miners get first dibs thus get to keep the 13 million Bitcoin for themselves {and thus finances the Nash equilibrium restoration even}. I discuss the game theory in great detail on my Github gist linked from my blog. People make the mistake of assuming the restoration will not occur because it will crater the price of Bitcoin. What they do not understand is the miners will have no choice because due to the asymmetrical economics of the situation, the non-legacy fork will stall and miners who try to continue mining it will have no income and go bankrupt.
There is another wrinkle that affects all of us holding Bitcoin, even if we hodl legacy addresses. The restoration “attack” (actually a healing, not an attack) will create an involuntary taxable event due to the airdrop, even for those whose Bitcoins are taken from them (i.e. donated to the miners). And even those of us who keep our Bitcorn will have this involuntary taxable event. I did the research and any claim that we did not take possession of the airdrop or what have you, will not be a valid excuse. Thus this event is going to REKT everyone as they will have a huge tax bill, but {especially those who did not hodl in legacy addresses} no Bitcorn remaining to sell to pay the tax!!!
@zvonyo, c.f. also the latest updates on this idea where I elaborated. The optimum time to initiate the ANYONECANSPEND event is after a massive run up in the price, because it will cause the more egregious stalling of the impostor fork. Thus the ideal juncture might be the looming ~70k top in 2025 because the projected abyss crash to bottom by May 2026.
It is possible that BlackRock will convert the impostor Bitcoin to proof-of-stake, because that will be the only possible defense to the mining difficulty non-readjustment attack(s) which will stall the impostor fork after it fcks off. The legacy protocol Bitcoin will recover and rise as the new world reserve currency replacing the dollar after the looming WWIII Thucydides trap. This plan was laid out in 1988 as the Phoenix on the cover of the Economist Magazine. Bitcoin has been on a 10 year cycle ever since, with its clever design leaked in an anonymous user group post in 1999, launched in 2008/2009, and attained mass retail awareness in 2018. I am an expert on this topic. Proceed to my blog, Dig into my detailed Github gist. Legacy Bitcoin is a diabolical plan to enslave the world, as I had publicly pointed out in 2013.
Eric Krown Crypto thinks the DXY might still come down to 100. Dollar will crash upwards in its final peak going into 2026 as the Thucydides trap accelerates. After 2028 (Bitcoin’s 10 year cycle), Bitcoin will start to rise as the Phoenix and the new world reserve currency, because the nations will not trust each other nor the dollar anymore. Also the dollar can no longer be a reserve currency when they trap us in a cashless CBDC dystopia.
====
Covid-23 has been announced? Here we go again, 2020 repeating because it is an election year and they need to stop Trump again?
====
From the comments:
@zvonyo, that BlackRock disclaimer from their ETF application is screen captured on my blog where I discuss the ANYONECANSPEND attack (and to the Tradingview mods, I am not selling anything offsite nor do I have any sponsors so this is not advertising). It is not necessarily that BlackRock will fork Bitcoin, as BlackRock will be forced to choose which fork they are hodling and which one they will sell if they hodl in legacy addresses (thus not ANYONECANSPEND) and thus receive the free airdrop of non-legacy. It will be the miners taking the 13+ million ANYONECANSPEND Bitcoins as generous donations, that will force the non-legacy (i.e. 2017 softfork impostor Bitcion) protocol to hard fork (fck) off from (the bona fide Bitcoin) Satoshi’s immutable legacy protocol, because that will be a violation of the new protocol. To protect yourself, make sure you hodl all your Bitcoins in addresses that begin with 1 not 3, bc1 nor any other obfuscation for legacy addresses that the scammers come up with. I suppose it is possible that BlackRock will invest a lot in Bitcoin mining and help drive the Schelling point for when the ANYONECANSPEND restoration of the Nash equilibrium {but that is not essential nor relevant to the logic of the inevitability of the attack}. Anyway, it appears to me that BlackRock and the new ETFs will be where all the institutions go to die as all their investment will go “poof it’s gone.” NOT YOUR LEGACY KEYS, NOT YOUR BITCORN. The 2017 softfork broke the Nash equilibrium because it created this huge 13+ million booty that gives the miners a different strategy than benevolence. It incentivizes the miners to force the 2017 softfork to fork (fck) off because miners get first dibs thus get to keep the 13 million Bitcoin for themselves {and thus finances the Nash equilibrium restoration even}. I discuss the game theory in great detail on my Github gist linked from my blog. People make the mistake of assuming the restoration will not occur because it will crater the price of Bitcoin. What they do not understand is the miners will have no choice because due to the asymmetrical economics of the situation, the non-legacy fork will stall and miners who try to continue mining it will have no income and go bankrupt.
There is another wrinkle that affects all of us holding Bitcoin, even if we hodl legacy addresses. The restoration “attack” (actually a healing, not an attack) will create an involuntary taxable event due to the airdrop, even for those whose Bitcoins are taken from them (i.e. donated to the miners). And even those of us who keep our Bitcorn will have this involuntary taxable event. I did the research and any claim that we did not take possession of the airdrop or what have you, will not be a valid excuse. Thus this event is going to REKT everyone as they will have a huge tax bill, but {especially those who did not hodl in legacy addresses} no Bitcorn remaining to sell to pay the tax!!!
@zvonyo, c.f. also the latest updates on this idea where I elaborated. The optimum time to initiate the ANYONECANSPEND event is after a massive run up in the price, because it will cause the more egregious stalling of the impostor fork. Thus the ideal juncture might be the looming ~70k top in 2025 because the projected abyss crash to bottom by May 2026.
It is possible that BlackRock will convert the impostor Bitcoin to proof-of-stake, because that will be the only possible defense to the mining difficulty non-readjustment attack(s) which will stall the impostor fork after it fcks off. The legacy protocol Bitcoin will recover and rise as the new world reserve currency replacing the dollar after the looming WWIII Thucydides trap. This plan was laid out in 1988 as the Phoenix on the cover of the Economist Magazine. Bitcoin has been on a 10 year cycle ever since, with its clever design leaked in an anonymous user group post in 1999, launched in 2008/2009, and attained mass retail awareness in 2018. I am an expert on this topic. Proceed to my blog, Dig into my detailed Github gist. Legacy Bitcoin is a diabolical plan to enslave the world, as I had publicly pointed out in 2013.
Eric Krown Crypto thinks the DXY might still come down to 100. Dollar will crash upwards in its final peak going into 2026 as the Thucydides trap accelerates. After 2028 (Bitcoin’s 10 year cycle), Bitcoin will start to rise as the Phoenix and the new world reserve currency, because the nations will not trust each other nor the dollar anymore. Also the dollar can no longer be a reserve currency when they trap us in a cashless CBDC dystopia.
Comment:
youtu.be/ERpp2ygWdyE
(Elliott Wave Master Predicts Next Market Top | Alessio Rastani)
@CryptoCrewUniversity Alessio explained this very well. Steve if your 5.3 theory is correct, then we are in the bearish version of Alessio’s thesis. Which is what I believe and have posted publicly. I think Bitcoin will make new lows in 2024 as shocking as that sounds. EuroDollar University is explaining why. People think the blackswan from 2020 will not repeat. They should study more. I like that you raised your range bound thesis based on the 4-year halving cycle, which Alessio reacted to. However the reason I think you are wrong and Alessio’s bearish thesis is correct, is bcz your 5.3 theory says the price can not exceed ~70 to 79k (measured 2 ways), but if price is already ~48k yet not even close to the timing of the parabolic move in the 4 year cycle. Fib retracements are deceiving bcz bullish when a significant new ATH is expected, but not the case now bcz of your 5.3 theory! Thus may decline below 15k in 2024 and never make a new ATH bcz your 5.3 theory will be measured from a lower bottom.
====
From the comments:
> “I remember you wrote that you only hedge your long-term positions with options, not aggressively playing on the short side…I'm waiting to hear from you and hope everything is OK.
@goodblackcat, Tradingview banned me from posting for 2 or 3 days. C.f. my most recent update today on my other recent published idea. I have a very important comment about the Elliot Wave structure. I think this might be the final blowoff top for Bitcoin for a few years. Maybe one relief rally to above this level in 2025 but not a new ATH. This looks very bearish to me. Parabolic on very low volume (lol BlackRock announced $100k in seed capital and the markets pumped!) and too soon in the cycle if the 5.3 theory is correct and the new ATH in 2025 can only be ~70 to 79k, then this is not bullish at all. Thus to tell you frankly, I am shifting to taking profits on crypto. Not even 15% of my hodl portfolio yet, but if this hits 47 - 48k, I am thinking about taking profits on up to 50%. Will be interested to read your thoughts. I was also long the breakout. Remember I was warning you that there was manipulation and they might take this higher before they let it crash. The insiders know what is coming in 2024. EuroDollar University knows also. Your methods can not really decipher these long-term outlooks. That is why I look at a lot of different data points in the macro and the T/A.
@goodblackcat, I have seen some compelling arguments for one more push to 47 - 48k. Could happen soon or later in December or early January. Then I expect a rug pull after that with a precipitous drop. We could have already hit the top but I am doubting that.
@goodblackcat, Alessio (c.f. my latest update on my other recent idea) says needs to waterfall crash below 40k then 35k for the bearish thesis to be intact. Can not be a slow move. Must be very precipitous. Else the bearish thesis is discarded.
(Elliott Wave Master Predicts Next Market Top | Alessio Rastani)
@CryptoCrewUniversity Alessio explained this very well. Steve if your 5.3 theory is correct, then we are in the bearish version of Alessio’s thesis. Which is what I believe and have posted publicly. I think Bitcoin will make new lows in 2024 as shocking as that sounds. EuroDollar University is explaining why. People think the blackswan from 2020 will not repeat. They should study more. I like that you raised your range bound thesis based on the 4-year halving cycle, which Alessio reacted to. However the reason I think you are wrong and Alessio’s bearish thesis is correct, is bcz your 5.3 theory says the price can not exceed ~70 to 79k (measured 2 ways), but if price is already ~48k yet not even close to the timing of the parabolic move in the 4 year cycle. Fib retracements are deceiving bcz bullish when a significant new ATH is expected, but not the case now bcz of your 5.3 theory! Thus may decline below 15k in 2024 and never make a new ATH bcz your 5.3 theory will be measured from a lower bottom.
====
From the comments:
> “I remember you wrote that you only hedge your long-term positions with options, not aggressively playing on the short side…I'm waiting to hear from you and hope everything is OK.
@goodblackcat, Tradingview banned me from posting for 2 or 3 days. C.f. my most recent update today on my other recent published idea. I have a very important comment about the Elliot Wave structure. I think this might be the final blowoff top for Bitcoin for a few years. Maybe one relief rally to above this level in 2025 but not a new ATH. This looks very bearish to me. Parabolic on very low volume (lol BlackRock announced $100k in seed capital and the markets pumped!) and too soon in the cycle if the 5.3 theory is correct and the new ATH in 2025 can only be ~70 to 79k, then this is not bullish at all. Thus to tell you frankly, I am shifting to taking profits on crypto. Not even 15% of my hodl portfolio yet, but if this hits 47 - 48k, I am thinking about taking profits on up to 50%. Will be interested to read your thoughts. I was also long the breakout. Remember I was warning you that there was manipulation and they might take this higher before they let it crash. The insiders know what is coming in 2024. EuroDollar University knows also. Your methods can not really decipher these long-term outlooks. That is why I look at a lot of different data points in the macro and the T/A.
@goodblackcat, I have seen some compelling arguments for one more push to 47 - 48k. Could happen soon or later in December or early January. Then I expect a rug pull after that with a precipitous drop. We could have already hit the top but I am doubting that.
@goodblackcat, Alessio (c.f. my latest update on my other recent idea) says needs to waterfall crash below 40k then 35k for the bearish thesis to be intact. Can not be a slow move. Must be very precipitous. Else the bearish thesis is discarded.
Comment:
Says signals of doom for 2024 are worse than 2019, more like 2007/8. Points out that the supply shock from Covid, was papered over with fiat printing but this will revert to the mean. That the global economy is still very weak and getting weaker.
My take is crash coming in 2024, but Fed will be able to bring out their bazooka one last time. We go up again in 2025 and then from 2026 to 2028 at least is going to be absolute totalitarian hell with massive economic problems globally. People will be suffering. Global suffering is good feedstock for world war.
youtu.be/Y6nKuf-KxY0?t=609
(It Was Only A Matter Of Time...But It Finally Happened | EuroDollar University)
====
Something non-linear (i.e. blackswan) may be brewing. Swap spreads going negative like they did in 2020. Also the Baltic Dry index has doubled in November.
youtu.be/0hCDxRc6HDs
(Things Are Getting REALLY Serious Now | EuroDollar U.)
====
82% of Americans can’t afford to finance even a used car. Precipitous drop in November. Something is brewing while Bitcoin is rallying on stupid ETF nonsense.
youtu.be/AGn5Mi_HSGw?t=556
(The Used Car Market just COLLAPSED)
====
youtu.be/aUKchot5V-I
(Holy Sh*t! The Fed Just Admitted We Are In A Recession | EuroDollar University)
My take is crash coming in 2024, but Fed will be able to bring out their bazooka one last time. We go up again in 2025 and then from 2026 to 2028 at least is going to be absolute totalitarian hell with massive economic problems globally. People will be suffering. Global suffering is good feedstock for world war.
youtu.be/Y6nKuf-KxY0?t=609
(It Was Only A Matter Of Time...But It Finally Happened | EuroDollar University)
====
Something non-linear (i.e. blackswan) may be brewing. Swap spreads going negative like they did in 2020. Also the Baltic Dry index has doubled in November.
youtu.be/0hCDxRc6HDs
(Things Are Getting REALLY Serious Now | EuroDollar U.)
====
82% of Americans can’t afford to finance even a used car. Precipitous drop in November. Something is brewing while Bitcoin is rallying on stupid ETF nonsense.
youtu.be/AGn5Mi_HSGw?t=556
(The Used Car Market just COLLAPSED)
====
youtu.be/aUKchot5V-I
(Holy Sh*t! The Fed Just Admitted We Are In A Recession | EuroDollar University)
Comment:
From the comments:
> “@shelby3, If you are correct than so be it but what if your wrong? I have been in these cycles reading highly articulate people telling me that Bitcoin was going to zero since 2012. Being merely articulate with a smug and condescending bias towards technology which often scales far past it's original development is what you seem to miss. Bitcoin layer 1 is the vault and layer 2 will be the spending mechanism. It does NOT have to be lightning and that constant in development is still unseen but Moore's law along with mass adoption breaks these barriers you seem to focus on.”
@btrimas, you have an aspirant class deficiency in reading comprehension. What part of “inarguable, ASYMMETRIC economics” did you fail to grok from my exposition. An average guy like you is incapable of understanding anything about Bitcoin, what Bitcoin is here to disrupt, that Bitcoin is here to justifiably enslave you and why transaction scaling is nonsense. Your “articulate” source idiots do not teach you anything useful. It’s not my vocation to hold your inept hand. All (but one of the) links are to writings of the 145 IQ Bitcoin whale who has ~500,000 BTC and who faked his own death as he prepares to move those BTC in the looming ANYONECANSPEND attack perhaps in 2026. Note the 2017 softfork impostor Bitcoin will be destroyed, not Satoshi’s authentic legacy protocol Bitcoin, which will rise from 2028 as the January 1988 Economist Magazine’s Phoenix from the ashes of WWIII, ashes of socialism, ashes of all the nonsense world that idiots believe to be true. Everything in your cushy world is going away. Pack your bags for the slavery train. If you had read carefully you would know to store your Bitcoin in addresses that begin with 1, not 3 nor bc1, so you will be protected. But you would still have the problem of an involuntary income tax liability for the looming airdrop.
> “@shelby3, If you are correct than so be it but what if your wrong? I have been in these cycles reading highly articulate people telling me that Bitcoin was going to zero since 2012. Being merely articulate with a smug and condescending bias towards technology which often scales far past it's original development is what you seem to miss. Bitcoin layer 1 is the vault and layer 2 will be the spending mechanism. It does NOT have to be lightning and that constant in development is still unseen but Moore's law along with mass adoption breaks these barriers you seem to focus on.”
@btrimas, you have an aspirant class deficiency in reading comprehension. What part of “inarguable, ASYMMETRIC economics” did you fail to grok from my exposition. An average guy like you is incapable of understanding anything about Bitcoin, what Bitcoin is here to disrupt, that Bitcoin is here to justifiably enslave you and why transaction scaling is nonsense. Your “articulate” source idiots do not teach you anything useful. It’s not my vocation to hold your inept hand. All (but one of the) links are to writings of the 145 IQ Bitcoin whale who has ~500,000 BTC and who faked his own death as he prepares to move those BTC in the looming ANYONECANSPEND attack perhaps in 2026. Note the 2017 softfork impostor Bitcoin will be destroyed, not Satoshi’s authentic legacy protocol Bitcoin, which will rise from 2028 as the January 1988 Economist Magazine’s Phoenix from the ashes of WWIII, ashes of socialism, ashes of all the nonsense world that idiots believe to be true. Everything in your cushy world is going away. Pack your bags for the slavery train. If you had read carefully you would know to store your Bitcoin in addresses that begin with 1, not 3 nor bc1, so you will be protected. But you would still have the problem of an involuntary income tax liability for the looming airdrop.
Comment:
youtu.be/c0ZIqiVFTQk
(I respond to DUMB comments (what I REALLY think of bitcoin and stock markets) |
Alessio Rastani)
No worries Alessio. I have been sharing on my public trading view (with 486+ upvotes on my latest published idea so I have nontrivial reach), your latest analysis such as the interview you did with Steve Courtney of Crypto Crew University this week. I also explained why I think the bearish interpretation of the Bitcoin EW count is much more likely the situation right now. I wrote as follows on Steve's video...in short this parabolic move is either bearish or Steves's 5.3 theory is incorrect. Did you see he updated his 5.3 theory recently with an alternative way of measuring it that says the looming top in 2025 will be ~70k. If the top will be ~70k how can we be approaching 48k so soon in the 4 year halving cycle. Something does not make sense. Also wave 5 would be much too long if it did not complete in 2021. That was the top for Bitcoin. Bitcoin is ending. I explain the technological reasons Bitcoin is ending on my trading view. You really should study what I have written about the ANYONE CAN SPEND attack.
(I respond to DUMB comments (what I REALLY think of bitcoin and stock markets) |
Alessio Rastani)
No worries Alessio. I have been sharing on my public trading view (with 486+ upvotes on my latest published idea so I have nontrivial reach), your latest analysis such as the interview you did with Steve Courtney of Crypto Crew University this week. I also explained why I think the bearish interpretation of the Bitcoin EW count is much more likely the situation right now. I wrote as follows on Steve's video...in short this parabolic move is either bearish or Steves's 5.3 theory is incorrect. Did you see he updated his 5.3 theory recently with an alternative way of measuring it that says the looming top in 2025 will be ~70k. If the top will be ~70k how can we be approaching 48k so soon in the 4 year halving cycle. Something does not make sense. Also wave 5 would be much too long if it did not complete in 2021. That was the top for Bitcoin. Bitcoin is ending. I explain the technological reasons Bitcoin is ending on my trading view. You really should study what I have written about the ANYONE CAN SPEND attack.
Comment:
My comment on video Bitcoin is about to Do Something for First Time Since 2020 Rally | Steve Courtney & Alessio Rastani:
Steve Courtney is thus claiming that Bitcoin will only consolidate down to ~30k, then stay range bound until ~May 2024, then it will only rise (per his 5.3 theory measured two ways) to ~70 to 79k over the intervening 9 to 12 months into the top he expects in Q1 or Q2 2025. Thus he is claiming there will never be any parabolic cycle in this bull market cycle. He is using the TDI (Traders Dynamic Index) to support his thesis that Bitcoin is now in his “phase 2” of the bull market and that the prior bull cycle never had a “phase 2” and instead only an extended double-length “phase 1.” He thus employs this thesis to rule out a retest of the 15.4k lows.
For a bullish thesis with wave 1 to end at ~47k, then decline into wave 2 to ~30k for ~100+ days, then wave 3 to ~63+k (to make wave 3 the longest wave on linear but not log scaled) then correction wave 4, then wave 5 to ~70 to 79k over the next 9 to 12 months.
But for me Steve is ignoring the significance of several factors. 1) The overarching EW count ended in 2021 with wave 5, unless this is a very overextended wave 5, which seems to violate the rule that wave 3 should be the longest wave. 2) wave 2 correcting more than 62% of wave 1 in 2020 created a terminal wave condition (not many EW theorists are aware of this condition) meaning that 2021 was the end of the overarching EW count thus only the bearish EW thesis applies, 3) the volume chart on the monthly BTC index chart looks anemic something is not the same as prior cycles, 4) Steve’s TDI thesis has some conditions he is not factoring such as the prior two crosses above the RSI average orange which started his “phase 2” did so at the white horizontal line, whereas this recent orange cross was much lower and the slower RSI green line is much lower and the faster RSI red always comes back to test the green again after orange cross. In two prior cycles when the red approached the top of the RSI bollinger bands within 2 months of the halving, but the current situation is ~6 months before the halving. Thus while the prior two cycles the red retested the green after the top of the BB after halving this will be doing it before the halving. Also all prior orange crosses corresponded with a blue cross on the upper RCI3Lines, but not this time with blue very, very low. This seems to indicate that the red needs to crash down back below the blue first as it did in March 2020 before the bullish market resumes. The situation is much different and Steve is hallucinating by ignoring important information.
As Alessio had pointed out in his interview with Steve on Steve's channel, that if there will be a bearish case the crash will be very swift, perhaps a flash crash waterfall.
==============
youtu.be/AgwH0VNgI2M
(How High Will Bitcoin Go In 2024? | Andrei Jikh)
@AndreiJikh I bet you know nothing about the looming ANYONE CAN SPEND attack and the asymmetric economics that iseebitcoin's article totally ignores. 2026 perhaps. All your Bitcoin goes poof it's gone because you did not read carefully the blogs of the whale who provably controls a million BTC (he owned SatoshiDice). An no he is not dead. He presaged everything in his blogs. He faked his drowning as he prepares for the dystopian future ahead. C.f. my elaboration under unsignedmusic's comment.
If Bitcoin is pumping on the expectation of expectation of lower interest rates as you posit, then someone forgot that the Fed does not cut until something is breaking and that the most liquid assets are dumped first by weak hands during a deflationary episode. The ETFs are nonsense and will not lead to significant new demand until the price crashes because institutions are not going to rush to buy at these nosebleed prices. Institutions know a recession is coming and they will sit on their hands. Thus I think it is more logical that Bitcoin is pumping because the smart money wants to dump on retail before the looming 2024 crash. Bitcoin always crashes just before (or just after) the halving.
> “8:30 Since there will only be 21 million bitcoins ever, it would be IMPOSSIBLE to replenish the supply even in a million years, so it will always be infinitely more rare than gold.” (as measured by stock-to-flow ratio)
@unsignedmusic Actually it is worse than that because supply being lost while in the future no new supply will be created. So wrap you head around the kind of world we will have if Bitcoin becomes the global reserve currency replacing the dollar as the standard by which national fiats are based on. First of all it can not become a widely used currency because the 2017 softfork and those transaction scaling mechanisms are going to be destroyed in a fireball known as the ANYONE CAN SPEND attack (perhaps in 2026). Btw, most people will lose all their BTC in that attack because they did not read and comprehend what was presented to them. Secondly as the legacy protocol Bitcoin (not BSV nor BCH, but the protocol that coexists now on the main chain with the impostor softfork) rises as the 1988 Economist Magazine Phoenix, the world will be thrust into forever massive deflation with socialism enslaved by Bitcoin. It is not going to be a pleasant existence for most of the billions on this planet. Perhaps the banning of usury which lengthened the W. European Dark Age to 600 years might be analogous.
Steve Courtney is thus claiming that Bitcoin will only consolidate down to ~30k, then stay range bound until ~May 2024, then it will only rise (per his 5.3 theory measured two ways) to ~70 to 79k over the intervening 9 to 12 months into the top he expects in Q1 or Q2 2025. Thus he is claiming there will never be any parabolic cycle in this bull market cycle. He is using the TDI (Traders Dynamic Index) to support his thesis that Bitcoin is now in his “phase 2” of the bull market and that the prior bull cycle never had a “phase 2” and instead only an extended double-length “phase 1.” He thus employs this thesis to rule out a retest of the 15.4k lows.
For a bullish thesis with wave 1 to end at ~47k, then decline into wave 2 to ~30k for ~100+ days, then wave 3 to ~63+k (to make wave 3 the longest wave on linear but not log scaled) then correction wave 4, then wave 5 to ~70 to 79k over the next 9 to 12 months.
But for me Steve is ignoring the significance of several factors. 1) The overarching EW count ended in 2021 with wave 5, unless this is a very overextended wave 5, which seems to violate the rule that wave 3 should be the longest wave. 2) wave 2 correcting more than 62% of wave 1 in 2020 created a terminal wave condition (not many EW theorists are aware of this condition) meaning that 2021 was the end of the overarching EW count thus only the bearish EW thesis applies, 3) the volume chart on the monthly BTC index chart looks anemic something is not the same as prior cycles, 4) Steve’s TDI thesis has some conditions he is not factoring such as the prior two crosses above the RSI average orange which started his “phase 2” did so at the white horizontal line, whereas this recent orange cross was much lower and the slower RSI green line is much lower and the faster RSI red always comes back to test the green again after orange cross. In two prior cycles when the red approached the top of the RSI bollinger bands within 2 months of the halving, but the current situation is ~6 months before the halving. Thus while the prior two cycles the red retested the green after the top of the BB after halving this will be doing it before the halving. Also all prior orange crosses corresponded with a blue cross on the upper RCI3Lines, but not this time with blue very, very low. This seems to indicate that the red needs to crash down back below the blue first as it did in March 2020 before the bullish market resumes. The situation is much different and Steve is hallucinating by ignoring important information.
As Alessio had pointed out in his interview with Steve on Steve's channel, that if there will be a bearish case the crash will be very swift, perhaps a flash crash waterfall.
==============
youtu.be/AgwH0VNgI2M
(How High Will Bitcoin Go In 2024? | Andrei Jikh)
@AndreiJikh I bet you know nothing about the looming ANYONE CAN SPEND attack and the asymmetric economics that iseebitcoin's article totally ignores. 2026 perhaps. All your Bitcoin goes poof it's gone because you did not read carefully the blogs of the whale who provably controls a million BTC (he owned SatoshiDice). An no he is not dead. He presaged everything in his blogs. He faked his drowning as he prepares for the dystopian future ahead. C.f. my elaboration under unsignedmusic's comment.
If Bitcoin is pumping on the expectation of expectation of lower interest rates as you posit, then someone forgot that the Fed does not cut until something is breaking and that the most liquid assets are dumped first by weak hands during a deflationary episode. The ETFs are nonsense and will not lead to significant new demand until the price crashes because institutions are not going to rush to buy at these nosebleed prices. Institutions know a recession is coming and they will sit on their hands. Thus I think it is more logical that Bitcoin is pumping because the smart money wants to dump on retail before the looming 2024 crash. Bitcoin always crashes just before (or just after) the halving.
> “8:30 Since there will only be 21 million bitcoins ever, it would be IMPOSSIBLE to replenish the supply even in a million years, so it will always be infinitely more rare than gold.” (as measured by stock-to-flow ratio)
@unsignedmusic Actually it is worse than that because supply being lost while in the future no new supply will be created. So wrap you head around the kind of world we will have if Bitcoin becomes the global reserve currency replacing the dollar as the standard by which national fiats are based on. First of all it can not become a widely used currency because the 2017 softfork and those transaction scaling mechanisms are going to be destroyed in a fireball known as the ANYONE CAN SPEND attack (perhaps in 2026). Btw, most people will lose all their BTC in that attack because they did not read and comprehend what was presented to them. Secondly as the legacy protocol Bitcoin (not BSV nor BCH, but the protocol that coexists now on the main chain with the impostor softfork) rises as the 1988 Economist Magazine Phoenix, the world will be thrust into forever massive deflation with socialism enslaved by Bitcoin. It is not going to be a pleasant existence for most of the billions on this planet. Perhaps the banning of usury which lengthened the W. European Dark Age to 600 years might be analogous.
Comment:
My reply in the comments:
> “@shelby3, But why allow BTC to crash in the next run? Wouldn't it benefit if they extend the bull run until 2028, crash it (once the global economy collapses due to wars, inflation, etc.) and then introduce the NWO CBDC? By then, lots of people would have invested in crypto and made money off of it (to an extent, since the media loves to hype up the BTC target and fall short, as usual, to screw the laypeople by furthering the "hold" scam). However, the CBDC would then be used as a form of "bailout" to encourage easy adoption into CBDC's. Also, if you say that BTC will crash to 13k, wouldn't it be accurate to say that it will crash to 0 since no one will have any more interest or, better yet, trust?”
@bkprofits, late reply bcz was banned for 2 days, subsequently side-tracked. Also it is becoming unwieldy to find which among the too many comments on this page, I want to reply to.
You have some false assumptions (or not coherently conveyed points), e.g. ostensibly implying that masses make money in crypto, in all markets most lose, especially so in FOMO-on-steriods crypto.
Consider this from the perspective of the posited Rothschild, Vanderbilt, Rockefeller elite behind the curtain who I posit created Bitcoin (per the Rockefeller controlled January 1988 Economist Magazine cover story foretelling and 10 year cycle with design revealed in anonymous user group post in 1999, launched in 2008/9, 2018 mass awareness, 2028 Phoenix rises from ashes that the cover story article mentioned).
Ostensibly their posited intent would be to play all power structures (e.g. politicians, nation-states, deep state mafia e.g. neocons) off against each other, so that they’re in control. Thus they want to both cause those power structures to destroy themselves leading to a power vacuum that can only be filled by a NWO with legacy protocol Bitcoin (as the Phoenix rising by 2028 at the next halving bull cycle) as the trustworthy global unit-of-exchange and reserves for the enslaved national fiats, w\plebs enslaved in their dysfunctional national CBDC fiats.
Ostensibly the way the CBDCs will be brought into broad use is the egregious deflation in 2026 (already rearing its head now but presumably the Fed can bazooka one final time), bank collapses and thus many/most accept UBI distributed by CBDC to pay their bills so they can survive. The anemic volume since 2021 (much worse than any prior bear market) along with the Elliot Wave structure that Robert Prechter presented to Alessio Ranstani (which I also posited back in 2020) all seem to indicate that the maximum FOMO has already been tapped out with the p(L)andemic stimulus insanity. The final hooray to squeeze the last ounce of blood from the greater fools’ rag will be the ETFs heading into the 2025 final peak (which may not even be an ATH). Then they will crash everything hard down into WWIII and enslave 666-style. The reason perhaps to take it down first to 9 to 13k early on in 2024, is to give the rest of the greater fools who had no easy access, a final opportunity to be slaughtered like pigs as crypto rallies one final time. They’ll feel smart because they are buying it lower copying the 2020 to 2021 paradigm again. Monkey see, monkey do. Those who missed out in 2020, will get one more chance. But they will not be able to cash out if posited the ANYONECANSPEND attack hits near the top in 2025 causing a breathtaking, face-ripping cliff-drop. We will see…my popcorn is ready and remote is set to CNN! Hopefully you have been following my updates so you have the context.
Only way to crash Bitcoin to 0 is to destroy the impostor Bitcoin, with the actual (Phoenix) Bitcoin (not BSV nor BCH) surviving never close to 0.
==========================
I wrote or replied:
youtu.be/sE5RLzaVycE
(The Fed May Shock Rates Higher This Week | Mott Capital Mgmt)
Deflation has already started. C.f. EuroDollar University. Crash coming in 2024, right on time in an election year to repeat 2020. First the markets are pumping as they always do right before a recession when the Fed pauses. When the Fed cuts into a recession, the markets are historically already crashing. The reason the Fed's dot plot is too high is because they were not aware then how much the economy was slowing down. Recent Fed member comments reveal that some of their districts are out right screaming that the economy is crumbling. But Jerome is determined to hold and crash the economy, because he has ostensibly been told to do that. Probably like 2020 they need a pretext (for mail-in ballots and maybe UBI checks) to steal an election again. There is a lot going on. It is not as simple as you want it to be.
> “If the CPI comes in under 3.0, all the weekly cup and handle formations (SPY, NASDAQ, etc) will absolutely take off. Yes, the daily charts look extended and the latest rally seems 'irrational'. Did the market revert? No. It's been consolidating for almost a month.”
Back in October I had (publicly on my trading view) the harmonic projections (afair it was a Shark pattern) with 0.886 ~4650 and 1.13 extention ~4900. Is this still headed up to the 1.13 after hitting the first target this summer? This is why I was long when Mott and many others were climbing the Wall of Worry all the way up. Game of Trades had taught me in 2022 that the markets would pump when the Fed pauses before a looming recession. Happens every time like clockwork. A massive crash is looming in 2024. Something is brewing per EuroDollar University. The Repo market has been draining into Treasuries and/or stonks. That liquidity is almost depleted and will be no later than March but the exodus is accelerating.
Not irrational at all. I just explained why. You should widen your understanding of what is going on. Learn about how funds where drawn into the Fed's discount window and subsequently were coming out. Essentially all that liquidity from the p(L)andemic is still winding its way into stronger hands in the way markets work to concentrate capital to the 1% and enslave the 99%.
> “This rally is so absurd even the bulls themselves actually don't know why it's rallying other than the notion that stocks only go up”
Wrong. I explained why.
> “@shelby3, But why allow BTC to crash in the next run? Wouldn't it benefit if they extend the bull run until 2028, crash it (once the global economy collapses due to wars, inflation, etc.) and then introduce the NWO CBDC? By then, lots of people would have invested in crypto and made money off of it (to an extent, since the media loves to hype up the BTC target and fall short, as usual, to screw the laypeople by furthering the "hold" scam). However, the CBDC would then be used as a form of "bailout" to encourage easy adoption into CBDC's. Also, if you say that BTC will crash to 13k, wouldn't it be accurate to say that it will crash to 0 since no one will have any more interest or, better yet, trust?”
@bkprofits, late reply bcz was banned for 2 days, subsequently side-tracked. Also it is becoming unwieldy to find which among the too many comments on this page, I want to reply to.
You have some false assumptions (or not coherently conveyed points), e.g. ostensibly implying that masses make money in crypto, in all markets most lose, especially so in FOMO-on-steriods crypto.
Consider this from the perspective of the posited Rothschild, Vanderbilt, Rockefeller elite behind the curtain who I posit created Bitcoin (per the Rockefeller controlled January 1988 Economist Magazine cover story foretelling and 10 year cycle with design revealed in anonymous user group post in 1999, launched in 2008/9, 2018 mass awareness, 2028 Phoenix rises from ashes that the cover story article mentioned).
Ostensibly their posited intent would be to play all power structures (e.g. politicians, nation-states, deep state mafia e.g. neocons) off against each other, so that they’re in control. Thus they want to both cause those power structures to destroy themselves leading to a power vacuum that can only be filled by a NWO with legacy protocol Bitcoin (as the Phoenix rising by 2028 at the next halving bull cycle) as the trustworthy global unit-of-exchange and reserves for the enslaved national fiats, w\plebs enslaved in their dysfunctional national CBDC fiats.
Ostensibly the way the CBDCs will be brought into broad use is the egregious deflation in 2026 (already rearing its head now but presumably the Fed can bazooka one final time), bank collapses and thus many/most accept UBI distributed by CBDC to pay their bills so they can survive. The anemic volume since 2021 (much worse than any prior bear market) along with the Elliot Wave structure that Robert Prechter presented to Alessio Ranstani (which I also posited back in 2020) all seem to indicate that the maximum FOMO has already been tapped out with the p(L)andemic stimulus insanity. The final hooray to squeeze the last ounce of blood from the greater fools’ rag will be the ETFs heading into the 2025 final peak (which may not even be an ATH). Then they will crash everything hard down into WWIII and enslave 666-style. The reason perhaps to take it down first to 9 to 13k early on in 2024, is to give the rest of the greater fools who had no easy access, a final opportunity to be slaughtered like pigs as crypto rallies one final time. They’ll feel smart because they are buying it lower copying the 2020 to 2021 paradigm again. Monkey see, monkey do. Those who missed out in 2020, will get one more chance. But they will not be able to cash out if posited the ANYONECANSPEND attack hits near the top in 2025 causing a breathtaking, face-ripping cliff-drop. We will see…my popcorn is ready and remote is set to CNN! Hopefully you have been following my updates so you have the context.
Only way to crash Bitcoin to 0 is to destroy the impostor Bitcoin, with the actual (Phoenix) Bitcoin (not BSV nor BCH) surviving never close to 0.
==========================
I wrote or replied:
youtu.be/sE5RLzaVycE
(The Fed May Shock Rates Higher This Week | Mott Capital Mgmt)
Deflation has already started. C.f. EuroDollar University. Crash coming in 2024, right on time in an election year to repeat 2020. First the markets are pumping as they always do right before a recession when the Fed pauses. When the Fed cuts into a recession, the markets are historically already crashing. The reason the Fed's dot plot is too high is because they were not aware then how much the economy was slowing down. Recent Fed member comments reveal that some of their districts are out right screaming that the economy is crumbling. But Jerome is determined to hold and crash the economy, because he has ostensibly been told to do that. Probably like 2020 they need a pretext (for mail-in ballots and maybe UBI checks) to steal an election again. There is a lot going on. It is not as simple as you want it to be.
> “If the CPI comes in under 3.0, all the weekly cup and handle formations (SPY, NASDAQ, etc) will absolutely take off. Yes, the daily charts look extended and the latest rally seems 'irrational'. Did the market revert? No. It's been consolidating for almost a month.”
Back in October I had (publicly on my trading view) the harmonic projections (afair it was a Shark pattern) with 0.886 ~4650 and 1.13 extention ~4900. Is this still headed up to the 1.13 after hitting the first target this summer? This is why I was long when Mott and many others were climbing the Wall of Worry all the way up. Game of Trades had taught me in 2022 that the markets would pump when the Fed pauses before a looming recession. Happens every time like clockwork. A massive crash is looming in 2024. Something is brewing per EuroDollar University. The Repo market has been draining into Treasuries and/or stonks. That liquidity is almost depleted and will be no later than March but the exodus is accelerating.
Not irrational at all. I just explained why. You should widen your understanding of what is going on. Learn about how funds where drawn into the Fed's discount window and subsequently were coming out. Essentially all that liquidity from the p(L)andemic is still winding its way into stronger hands in the way markets work to concentrate capital to the 1% and enslave the 99%.
> “This rally is so absurd even the bulls themselves actually don't know why it's rallying other than the notion that stocks only go up”
Wrong. I explained why.
Comment:
youtu.be/OTcSUe_naxo
(Cracks are Starting to Appear in Overnight Funding Markets | Heresy Financial)
youtu.be/yrxUXiKaoaM
(BREAKING Payroll Report Goes Viral | Eurodollar University)
==============================
youtu.be/aB3UADTx_3M
(SPY QQQ Update BREAKOUT!)
As I commented to you many weeks ago when I first found your channel, I have had (on my public trading view, the) ~4900 to 4950 as the 1.13 harmonic pattern target back since October 2022. The 0.886 target was hit this summer. Bitcoin leads. Bitcoin likely to 47 to 48k before topping? Bitcoin doing this crazy rally tells you stonks likely to make new ATHs. Hold On for Dear Life (hodl). And take some (dollar cost average?) profits if get to nosebleed levels.
Do not forget the bullish Cup&Handle.
I learned from Game of Trades in summer 2022 (before he lost his mind and ruined his channel with nonsense) that the stonks historically pump hard when the Fed pauses before a looming recession. I emailed him and his assistants numerous times since he started going bearish all the way up since December 2022, but he refused to change his position, so I said goodbye to his channel. I guess even a broken 12 hour clock can be correct twice a day (referring to him not you).
Probably very severe crash coming in H1 2024, perhaps Q1. I watch EuroDollar University which keeps me abreast of early long-range macroeconomic signals.
======================
youtu.be/wi8WyyDEeGI
(What the CYCLES say for Bitcoin, Stock Markets and Real Estate in 2024 | Jason Pizzino & Alessio Rastani)
youtu.be/ZibsWprCNtE
(Bitcoin Trader Predicts Cryptos NEXT ATH | Alessio Rastani Interview by Pizzino)
@alessiorastani I told this Jason Pizzino that his fascination with the real estate cycle is flawed, because that cycle is not consistent. Also there can be other shorter and longer cycles in play which overlap. This guy thinks the 10 year real estate cycle is a hammer and all markets are a nail. That is not to say I disagree that the markets may make a major top in 2025, but…
Note I do not disagree that the S&P can go to 4800 to 4900 before topping in the next month or so. I had publicly published (on my public trading view) and identified a harmonic pattern in Oct/Nov 2022 that had two targets. The first target was hit this summer before the decline. And the next target is up there. I called the Bitcoin bottom publicly at exactly 15.4k.
I do not disagree with Jason that Bitcoin may break the 50% retracement level by Q3 2024. This would be consistent with an expanded flat correction as the B wave will move to a new ATH but just barely, which is consistent with Steve Courtney's ~70 to 79k 5.3 theory. But first the wave A can make a lower low, perhaps a flash crash in late Q1 or early Q2 2024. Might just be a correction to ~30k or lower as Steve Courtney thinks, but I am not ruling out that bearish wave A is not yet complete.
Thus disagree with Pizzino is in terms of how high can Bitcoin go and whether Bitcoin can make a lower-low in 2024. He is too sure of himself. I unsubscribed and stopped watching his redundant, banal content. Steve Courtney and Alessio produce innovative, thought-provoking content. Jason thinks he is uber-wise because has many real estate investments. Do not like his attitude at all. Incapable of thinking out-of-the-box, does not appreciate new information, closed-minded, etc..
I will give a concrete example. In this video he is gloating (as if he was the only person to call for S&P to 4650 back in October 2022 because I certainly did publicly) about how the March banking crisis low can never be broken. Lol. Famous last words. Never say never. Besides he does not seem to have an erudite understanding of what the Fed actually did to kick the can and the ramifications that have been smoldering and building since. Specifically the liquidity is drying up because the Repo discount window is being drained and will be depleted by March or sooner. There are many other examples where he is simply ignorant and closes his eyes and covers his ears.
Another example is I was stating since 2022 that before every recession in history, when the Fed pauses, the markets rally and often make new highs before crashing into the recession abyss. Jason does not want to hear this, because it conflicts with his thesis that the markets can not have any severe correction until 2026 in his view.
In this second video where Jason interviews Alessio, it appears that Jason is trying to have a more open mind, but we will need to see if that is really his attitude going forward.
(Cracks are Starting to Appear in Overnight Funding Markets | Heresy Financial)
youtu.be/yrxUXiKaoaM
(BREAKING Payroll Report Goes Viral | Eurodollar University)
==============================
youtu.be/aB3UADTx_3M
(SPY QQQ Update BREAKOUT!)
As I commented to you many weeks ago when I first found your channel, I have had (on my public trading view, the) ~4900 to 4950 as the 1.13 harmonic pattern target back since October 2022. The 0.886 target was hit this summer. Bitcoin leads. Bitcoin likely to 47 to 48k before topping? Bitcoin doing this crazy rally tells you stonks likely to make new ATHs. Hold On for Dear Life (hodl). And take some (dollar cost average?) profits if get to nosebleed levels.
Do not forget the bullish Cup&Handle.
I learned from Game of Trades in summer 2022 (before he lost his mind and ruined his channel with nonsense) that the stonks historically pump hard when the Fed pauses before a looming recession. I emailed him and his assistants numerous times since he started going bearish all the way up since December 2022, but he refused to change his position, so I said goodbye to his channel. I guess even a broken 12 hour clock can be correct twice a day (referring to him not you).
Probably very severe crash coming in H1 2024, perhaps Q1. I watch EuroDollar University which keeps me abreast of early long-range macroeconomic signals.
======================
youtu.be/wi8WyyDEeGI
(What the CYCLES say for Bitcoin, Stock Markets and Real Estate in 2024 | Jason Pizzino & Alessio Rastani)
youtu.be/ZibsWprCNtE
(Bitcoin Trader Predicts Cryptos NEXT ATH | Alessio Rastani Interview by Pizzino)
@alessiorastani I told this Jason Pizzino that his fascination with the real estate cycle is flawed, because that cycle is not consistent. Also there can be other shorter and longer cycles in play which overlap. This guy thinks the 10 year real estate cycle is a hammer and all markets are a nail. That is not to say I disagree that the markets may make a major top in 2025, but…
Note I do not disagree that the S&P can go to 4800 to 4900 before topping in the next month or so. I had publicly published (on my public trading view) and identified a harmonic pattern in Oct/Nov 2022 that had two targets. The first target was hit this summer before the decline. And the next target is up there. I called the Bitcoin bottom publicly at exactly 15.4k.
I do not disagree with Jason that Bitcoin may break the 50% retracement level by Q3 2024. This would be consistent with an expanded flat correction as the B wave will move to a new ATH but just barely, which is consistent with Steve Courtney's ~70 to 79k 5.3 theory. But first the wave A can make a lower low, perhaps a flash crash in late Q1 or early Q2 2024. Might just be a correction to ~30k or lower as Steve Courtney thinks, but I am not ruling out that bearish wave A is not yet complete.
Thus disagree with Pizzino is in terms of how high can Bitcoin go and whether Bitcoin can make a lower-low in 2024. He is too sure of himself. I unsubscribed and stopped watching his redundant, banal content. Steve Courtney and Alessio produce innovative, thought-provoking content. Jason thinks he is uber-wise because has many real estate investments. Do not like his attitude at all. Incapable of thinking out-of-the-box, does not appreciate new information, closed-minded, etc..
I will give a concrete example. In this video he is gloating (as if he was the only person to call for S&P to 4650 back in October 2022 because I certainly did publicly) about how the March banking crisis low can never be broken. Lol. Famous last words. Never say never. Besides he does not seem to have an erudite understanding of what the Fed actually did to kick the can and the ramifications that have been smoldering and building since. Specifically the liquidity is drying up because the Repo discount window is being drained and will be depleted by March or sooner. There are many other examples where he is simply ignorant and closes his eyes and covers his ears.
Another example is I was stating since 2022 that before every recession in history, when the Fed pauses, the markets rally and often make new highs before crashing into the recession abyss. Jason does not want to hear this, because it conflicts with his thesis that the markets can not have any severe correction until 2026 in his view.
In this second video where Jason interviews Alessio, it appears that Jason is trying to have a more open mind, but we will need to see if that is really his attitude going forward.
Comment:
From the comments:
@goodblackcat, the ~39.3k level is the support trendline from the grindingly slow staircase climb from Oct 24 through Nov 27. Quite reasonable to drop to that level then rally fiercely to ~47 to 48k in the first week of January if the ETF is approved. And I will be selling that with both fists!
Look out below after that. Timberrrr…
Nobody believes Bitcoin can make new lows!
Have you viewed my latest published idea? Take note of the short-term prediction in the updates of that long-term DJIA prediction.
@goodblackcat, the ~39.3k level is the support trendline from the grindingly slow staircase climb from Oct 24 through Nov 27. Quite reasonable to drop to that level then rally fiercely to ~47 to 48k in the first week of January if the ETF is approved. And I will be selling that with both fists!
Look out below after that. Timberrrr…
Nobody believes Bitcoin can make new lows!
Have you viewed my latest published idea? Take note of the short-term prediction in the updates of that long-term DJIA prediction.
Comment:
From the comments:
@goodblackcat, I am minimizing my use of this site now because I suppose I am near to being banned anyway. I will still reply from time-to-time if I see a notification. I maintain what I been saying for weeks, that a government shutdown starting on January 19 will crash the markets. The first low will be in March, final low in May. Then the rally into 2025 which will be the final high for Bitcoin as we knew it. Bitcoin will test near $0 in 2026 as the ANYONECANSPEND attack is looming. If not in 2026, then maybe ~2028. The 2025 high for Bitcoin will not be more than ~79k. If Bitcoin makes a lower low in 2024 then the 2025 high will be a triple top ~70k.
Looks like one final push to $46 - 49k next week, then Bitcoin will start crashing.
@goodblackcat, I am minimizing my use of this site now because I suppose I am near to being banned anyway. I will still reply from time-to-time if I see a notification. I maintain what I been saying for weeks, that a government shutdown starting on January 19 will crash the markets. The first low will be in March, final low in May. Then the rally into 2025 which will be the final high for Bitcoin as we knew it. Bitcoin will test near $0 in 2026 as the ANYONECANSPEND attack is looming. If not in 2026, then maybe ~2028. The 2025 high for Bitcoin will not be more than ~79k. If Bitcoin makes a lower low in 2024 then the 2025 high will be a triple top ~70k.
Looks like one final push to $46 - 49k next week, then Bitcoin will start crashing.
Comment:
Martin you had better make sure you understand the following. I am tired of trying to explain this to you, you old geezer. I respect you a lot but you are so ossified on this issue. I am 58 years old, not so much younger than you!
======================
Shelby Moore ⏱🌐🧖, {1/6/24 2:14 AM}
What is so weird is Armstrong will never comprehend the following, because while he is entirely wrong about Bitcoin, he is simultaneously entirely correct. How can that be? Because there are two Bitcoins— a fact that very people know and obviously Armstrong does not know this even though I have written to him many times about legacy vs. 2017 soft fork being two separate protocols which coexist until the 𝙰𝙽𝚈𝙾𝙽𝙴𝙲𝙰𝙽𝚂𝙿𝙴𝙽𝙳 restoration event transpires.
Armstrong can’t even get the creation date for Bitcoin correct as it was announced in emails on August 22, 2008 (bitcoinist.com/satos...ecret-email-emerges/) not June 3, 2009, which referenced an earlier email correspondence with Adam Back which may have been in July 2008 (cointelegraph.com/ne...-bitcoins-early-days). Armstrong also does not seem to be aware of Mircea Popescu who has 500,000 Bitcoins (primarily earned from his Satoshi Dice venture) and who ostensibly faked his death in July 2021 perhaps on the anniversary of Bitcoin’s creation— 13 years later thus Friday the 13th or 1.5 times Armstrong’s Pi Cycle of 8.6 years?
www.armstrongeconomi...-unpopular-analysis/
“Bitcoin must change its structure, or it will never become a valid currency with a stable store of value, which is supposed to be the whole point. It is just an asset class of high volatility.”
This is what the 𝙰𝙽𝚈𝙾𝙽𝙴𝙲𝙰𝙽𝚂𝙿𝙴𝙽𝙳 event will do to restructure what Bitcoin is and used for, as it will destroy the ‘official’ Bitcoin (the 2017 soft-fork) which is actually an impostor. It will confiscate all of the Bitcoin of those on that protocol and transfer it to the miners on Satoshi’s original legacy protocol. And thus will transform Bitcoin from a system that could scale transaction volume with Lightning Networks to a system that can only do ~5 transactions per second for the entire world. This will be perfect as a new world reserve currency, because the transaction fees will be too high for plebs to use it.
Armstrong will be gloating when that 𝙰𝙽𝚈𝙾𝙽𝙴𝙲𝙰𝙽𝚂𝙿𝙴𝙽𝙳 attack comes because he and almost everyone in the world will think Bitcoin is dead (maybe in 2026 or 2030), as the price will go to near $0 for the impostor protocol.
“Every major central bank has said they plan to move to CBDC. The entire purpose of the CBDC is to impose COMPLETE capital controls. So, how will you buy and sell anything that they deem to be a threat to their totalitarian world?”
What part of Bitcoin was not created for use by the public does Armstrong not understand? It will be used by Central Banks, corporations and billionaires only. None of these entities will be able to trust the CDBCs of different nations.
Has Armstrong failed to notice that each nation will have a different CBDC? These will not all be interoperable, nor trustworthy! Governments are dying, becoming desperate and rogue. The capital controls will be chaotic. The world is entering a period of chaos and disorder where nothing will be trustworthy. Bitcoin will be the only thing that is trustworthy for those will international settlement and clearing obligations. They can not go back to the Stone Age of shipping gold or using gold receipts for globalized settlement— we live in a digital era.
======================
Shelby Moore ⏱🌐🧖, {1/6/24 2:14 AM}
What is so weird is Armstrong will never comprehend the following, because while he is entirely wrong about Bitcoin, he is simultaneously entirely correct. How can that be? Because there are two Bitcoins— a fact that very people know and obviously Armstrong does not know this even though I have written to him many times about legacy vs. 2017 soft fork being two separate protocols which coexist until the 𝙰𝙽𝚈𝙾𝙽𝙴𝙲𝙰𝙽𝚂𝙿𝙴𝙽𝙳 restoration event transpires.
Armstrong can’t even get the creation date for Bitcoin correct as it was announced in emails on August 22, 2008 (bitcoinist.com/satos...ecret-email-emerges/) not June 3, 2009, which referenced an earlier email correspondence with Adam Back which may have been in July 2008 (cointelegraph.com/ne...-bitcoins-early-days). Armstrong also does not seem to be aware of Mircea Popescu who has 500,000 Bitcoins (primarily earned from his Satoshi Dice venture) and who ostensibly faked his death in July 2021 perhaps on the anniversary of Bitcoin’s creation— 13 years later thus Friday the 13th or 1.5 times Armstrong’s Pi Cycle of 8.6 years?
www.armstrongeconomi...-unpopular-analysis/
“Bitcoin must change its structure, or it will never become a valid currency with a stable store of value, which is supposed to be the whole point. It is just an asset class of high volatility.”
This is what the 𝙰𝙽𝚈𝙾𝙽𝙴𝙲𝙰𝙽𝚂𝙿𝙴𝙽𝙳 event will do to restructure what Bitcoin is and used for, as it will destroy the ‘official’ Bitcoin (the 2017 soft-fork) which is actually an impostor. It will confiscate all of the Bitcoin of those on that protocol and transfer it to the miners on Satoshi’s original legacy protocol. And thus will transform Bitcoin from a system that could scale transaction volume with Lightning Networks to a system that can only do ~5 transactions per second for the entire world. This will be perfect as a new world reserve currency, because the transaction fees will be too high for plebs to use it.
Armstrong will be gloating when that 𝙰𝙽𝚈𝙾𝙽𝙴𝙲𝙰𝙽𝚂𝙿𝙴𝙽𝙳 attack comes because he and almost everyone in the world will think Bitcoin is dead (maybe in 2026 or 2030), as the price will go to near $0 for the impostor protocol.
“Every major central bank has said they plan to move to CBDC. The entire purpose of the CBDC is to impose COMPLETE capital controls. So, how will you buy and sell anything that they deem to be a threat to their totalitarian world?”
What part of Bitcoin was not created for use by the public does Armstrong not understand? It will be used by Central Banks, corporations and billionaires only. None of these entities will be able to trust the CDBCs of different nations.
Has Armstrong failed to notice that each nation will have a different CBDC? These will not all be interoperable, nor trustworthy! Governments are dying, becoming desperate and rogue. The capital controls will be chaotic. The world is entering a period of chaos and disorder where nothing will be trustworthy. Bitcoin will be the only thing that is trustworthy for those will international settlement and clearing obligations. They can not go back to the Stone Age of shipping gold or using gold receipts for globalized settlement— we live in a digital era.
Comment:
“Could governments seize bitcoin?”
There is no plausible way to seize Bitcoin if the mnemonic private key is memorized inside your head only. What is the govt going to do, cut open my brain and dig out the private key? Waterboard me?
Yes the government can effectively seize Bitcoin by placing regulations on it that most people will follow. But not everyone will follow the regulations. Black markets always exist. And the more desperate that people become, the more that governments disintegrate, self-immolate and defile themselves. the more people that will choose to disobey and use black markets.
Will most people turn to “illegal” black markets? Probably not. Depends on how desperate people are.
As for the $600 reporting threshold, again that applies only if the rule-of-law is worth adhering to. What if the rule-of-law collapses?
If the gestapo is going to take everything people have and throw all white men in prison anyway for not paying taxes, then what do the people lose with civil disobedience? And how can States’ rights exist if States lack economies-of-scale to make their own money in this modern era?
So it is not quite clear yet how pear-shaped everything will be and the timing. But Bitcoin will eventually play some role. Whether it is used by many people for a while (until transaction fees become too excessive) or whether it will only be used by central banks, corporations and billionaires remains to be observed as we observe how the rule-of-law holds up or collapses.
Also as for the $600 legal limit, it would be possible to design like a virtual game crypto currency that would be decentralized and could be used for transactions online which would typically be less than $50. And this could become a huge online economy. I am actually working on this.
It is quite amusing to see Armstrong still so intransigent and still a nearly extinct dinosaur incapable of comprehending how the monetary system will be reformed and the pivotal role Bitcoin will play. I guess his brain is too ossified to actually add 2 + 2.
“Governments have reached the end of their rope and are actively on the hunt for additional taxes. They will default on all their debts, and the new monetary system they are planning will give them total control.”
Indeed. Precisely why Bitcoin will be needed and precisely why the governments and their CBDC systems will self-immolate.
But the salient distinction is that the CBDCs will not end by some coming together party of society after 2032 as Armstrong’s fantasy. No. The system will self-immolate over decades as the power vacuum is milked by MMT or whatever politics exists to serve the bankrupted Western masses who will demand the government take care of them. Has Armstrong not realized how entitled and self-important Westerners are? Does he even understand entropy, power-vacuums and political transformation? The revolution is not coming— just a huge insoluble mess that slow-grinds into irrelevancy by scorching those stuck in the CBDC system.
“Countries with strong currencies do not want bitcoin in existence.”
There will be no strong currencies after CBDCs are launched— only Economic Devastation (bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=3552...). Ergo “countries” will have no say in the matter.
“Governments are allowing cryptos like Bitcoin to exist because they can trace the transactions far better than paper currency.”
Indeed the governments were lured into allowing Bitcoin— which ironically will destroy the governments in the end game because Bitcoin has a fixed supply unlike gold and silver which can be and have been manipulated in the past where the USA impoverished China which was on a silver standard— which btw laid the dys-economic (despair) foundation for the Communist Revolution.
There is no plausible way to seize Bitcoin if the mnemonic private key is memorized inside your head only. What is the govt going to do, cut open my brain and dig out the private key? Waterboard me?
Yes the government can effectively seize Bitcoin by placing regulations on it that most people will follow. But not everyone will follow the regulations. Black markets always exist. And the more desperate that people become, the more that governments disintegrate, self-immolate and defile themselves. the more people that will choose to disobey and use black markets.
Will most people turn to “illegal” black markets? Probably not. Depends on how desperate people are.
As for the $600 reporting threshold, again that applies only if the rule-of-law is worth adhering to. What if the rule-of-law collapses?
If the gestapo is going to take everything people have and throw all white men in prison anyway for not paying taxes, then what do the people lose with civil disobedience? And how can States’ rights exist if States lack economies-of-scale to make their own money in this modern era?
So it is not quite clear yet how pear-shaped everything will be and the timing. But Bitcoin will eventually play some role. Whether it is used by many people for a while (until transaction fees become too excessive) or whether it will only be used by central banks, corporations and billionaires remains to be observed as we observe how the rule-of-law holds up or collapses.
Also as for the $600 legal limit, it would be possible to design like a virtual game crypto currency that would be decentralized and could be used for transactions online which would typically be less than $50. And this could become a huge online economy. I am actually working on this.
It is quite amusing to see Armstrong still so intransigent and still a nearly extinct dinosaur incapable of comprehending how the monetary system will be reformed and the pivotal role Bitcoin will play. I guess his brain is too ossified to actually add 2 + 2.
“Governments have reached the end of their rope and are actively on the hunt for additional taxes. They will default on all their debts, and the new monetary system they are planning will give them total control.”
Indeed. Precisely why Bitcoin will be needed and precisely why the governments and their CBDC systems will self-immolate.
But the salient distinction is that the CBDCs will not end by some coming together party of society after 2032 as Armstrong’s fantasy. No. The system will self-immolate over decades as the power vacuum is milked by MMT or whatever politics exists to serve the bankrupted Western masses who will demand the government take care of them. Has Armstrong not realized how entitled and self-important Westerners are? Does he even understand entropy, power-vacuums and political transformation? The revolution is not coming— just a huge insoluble mess that slow-grinds into irrelevancy by scorching those stuck in the CBDC system.
“Countries with strong currencies do not want bitcoin in existence.”
There will be no strong currencies after CBDCs are launched— only Economic Devastation (bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=3552...). Ergo “countries” will have no say in the matter.
“Governments are allowing cryptos like Bitcoin to exist because they can trace the transactions far better than paper currency.”
Indeed the governments were lured into allowing Bitcoin— which ironically will destroy the governments in the end game because Bitcoin has a fixed supply unlike gold and silver which can be and have been manipulated in the past where the USA impoverished China which was on a silver standard— which btw laid the dys-economic (despair) foundation for the Communist Revolution.
Comment:
Armstrong has concurred what I have been publicly predicting for weeks and months now on my Tradingview. Martin has at most $49,658 for the January top.
www.armstrongeconomi...coin-the-cryptotrap/
“BITCOIN is merely bouncing to retest to the former uptrend line from below. January is a crucial timing target for a high.”
His overhead resistance trend line also predicts that Bitcoin will not make a new ATH in 2025.
As for the following, indeed transacting in truly decentralized crypto in transaction sizes over $600 will become incompatible w\the looming dystopian CBDC totalitarianism. Only buy&hold or the more intrepid willing to risk being doxxed in black market will disobey. Why do you think I moved to Mexico!
“They will declare computers generating cryptos “banks” and require you to report event transactions eventually $600 or more, and if not, apply the same regulations and threaten you with 20 years in prison for money laundering.”
www.armstrongeconomi...coin-the-cryptotrap/
“BITCOIN is merely bouncing to retest to the former uptrend line from below. January is a crucial timing target for a high.”
His overhead resistance trend line also predicts that Bitcoin will not make a new ATH in 2025.
As for the following, indeed transacting in truly decentralized crypto in transaction sizes over $600 will become incompatible w\the looming dystopian CBDC totalitarianism. Only buy&hold or the more intrepid willing to risk being doxxed in black market will disobey. Why do you think I moved to Mexico!
“They will declare computers generating cryptos “banks” and require you to report event transactions eventually $600 or more, and if not, apply the same regulations and threaten you with 20 years in prison for money laundering.”
Comment:
Looks like after any bounce, BTC is very likely to decline to $31 - 34k, if not maybe $28k, over the coming months before resuming the bull market into 2025 to hit Armstrong’s uptrend line (that marked $49.6k as the top) again ~$79k by 2025 as that uptrend line is rising. The only way to go lower than that this Spring would be an egregious blackswan contagion.
Originally I was thinking there would be a repeating blackswan event from 2020 because another election year where they need to stop Trump, i.e. that in an election year the “unlikely event that the government pulls a snake out of its ass again” (as Alex Becker said in recently cited video). However, they can not get away with that sort deception-pretext again. Instead they have clearly signaled they must overtly strip Trump of his rights with ”kangaroo courts” lawfare or whatever it requires. The recent admission of the MSM that Trump is trouncing everyone, is I think a calculated move to call for more radicalism in form of radical-desperation in their ranks— i.e. that the faithful will tolerate any burning-at-the-stake required to purge the evil witch Trump. Anglo-Saxon Protestants/Puritans due to our Nietzschean ressentiment are really into burning-at-the-stake.
youtu.be/OJfjyfcDBO8?t=632
(MAJOR WARNING To Bitcoin & Crypto Investors In 2024 | E.K.C.)
Originally I was thinking there would be a repeating blackswan event from 2020 because another election year where they need to stop Trump, i.e. that in an election year the “unlikely event that the government pulls a snake out of its ass again” (as Alex Becker said in recently cited video). However, they can not get away with that sort deception-pretext again. Instead they have clearly signaled they must overtly strip Trump of his rights with ”kangaroo courts” lawfare or whatever it requires. The recent admission of the MSM that Trump is trouncing everyone, is I think a calculated move to call for more radicalism in form of radical-desperation in their ranks— i.e. that the faithful will tolerate any burning-at-the-stake required to purge the evil witch Trump. Anglo-Saxon Protestants/Puritans due to our Nietzschean ressentiment are really into burning-at-the-stake.
youtu.be/OJfjyfcDBO8?t=632
(MAJOR WARNING To Bitcoin & Crypto Investors In 2024 | E.K.C.)
Amazing me that people think logistic growth S curves just slow down and levitate after they peak, as if a Boeing 747 could stall in mid-air without any thrust. Exponential on the way up and exponential on the way down.