Bitcoin at the crossroads - ? a BIG fall next to $26-28K
I'm almost too embarrassed to come back after my first bullish post on Bitcoin just before it plunged to $31K, although I did change my mind and Shorted BTC once it broke down through key support at $34K on 21st Jan with a downside profit taking area of $27K which was close to the lowest wick that day of 28K.
And I called BTC bearish on Twitter last night 18 hours ago when it broke down through $33.5K, which was key lower support of the big pennant it was in with a downside profit taking area again around $28K I estimated from the pennant "flagpole".
So here is my follow up analysis. BTC did drop to 30K after my tweet, but it's price has then stabilized and it's moved up and down in another smaller triangle pattern as shown. Interestingly it has just risen back to that key $33.5K level, which is now the upper edge of the new smaller triangle and it's been rejected at that level and is falling again. The Forflies EMA indicator I use is very bearish on the 4/24 chart, and I predict the most likely course for Bitcoin now is to break down through the bottom of the current smaller triangle at ~$32K and for it to then fall to the $26-28k range. The less likely alternative is that it breaks up through $35.5K out of this triangle and then through the bigger pennant on its way back to $40K. But I'm short BTC and ETH at present with moderate leverage.
And comments or ideas are most welcome!
And I called BTC bearish on Twitter last night 18 hours ago when it broke down through $33.5K, which was key lower support of the big pennant it was in with a downside profit taking area again around $28K I estimated from the pennant "flagpole".
So here is my follow up analysis. BTC did drop to 30K after my tweet, but it's price has then stabilized and it's moved up and down in another smaller triangle pattern as shown. Interestingly it has just risen back to that key $33.5K level, which is now the upper edge of the new smaller triangle and it's been rejected at that level and is falling again. The Forflies EMA indicator I use is very bearish on the 4/24 chart, and I predict the most likely course for Bitcoin now is to break down through the bottom of the current smaller triangle at ~$32K and for it to then fall to the $26-28k range. The less likely alternative is that it breaks up through $35.5K out of this triangle and then through the bigger pennant on its way back to $40K. But I'm short BTC and ETH at present with moderate leverage.
And comments or ideas are most welcome!
Comment:
On the other hand BTC is now making a big effort to break through that key $33.5K level to the upside, so maybe the bullish scenario back up to 40K is looking at least 50:50 now. I've moved from Shorting Bitcoin to a cautious Long position with a tight stop loss - and I see I'm in profit already as I write this. I think the tweets and alerts coming through that ETH has smashed ATH and is racing up apparently and the other alts making good gains are giving a bullish feel to things too.
