BTC repecting FIB zones of 4k to 69k;why sub-12k may be max pain
Here I used the COINBASE weekly chart. In my last post I used a BTCUSDT chart because the S&R levels are much clearer. (Maybe because more people used USDT to convert to BTC & vice versa).
Here are more reasons why the sub-12k zone may be the maximum pain for BTC.
Since the ATH @69k, BTC started an ABC correction as wave IV & has recently failed to hold 20k. Much action of the B counter-wave are done inside the yellow consolidation box (44k to 36k) between the 0.383 to 0.50 FIB retracement levels as measured from 4k to 69k. The move from 36k to 28k (Fib 0.50 to 0.618) was very fast encountering no strong S&R levels. The next leg down was halted by FIB 0.786 near sub-17k & a relief rally followed back up to consolidate inside the 22k to 20k pivot zone. 22k is the weekly wma200 level while 20k is a very strong psychological support.
Probability of more downside:
I believe the C-wave is not yet completed yet especially so if the sub-17k will not hold. BTC is probably right now doing the small wave 4 relief rally & there will still be a wave 5 down. Even if BTC holds 17k/18k, there is a great chance the relief rally may still be rejected by the 28k to 29k zone which is both the FIB 0.618 & the weekly wma150 area. This will be the SECOND MAJOR COUNTER-TREND RALLY since crashing from 69k. Having turned down, this time the sub-17k may not hold & the final maximum pain zone will be the sub-12k to 13k zone at FIB 0.854. The bottom may come in late 4Q2022.
BULLISH CASE: if BTC breaks back above the the 0.618 FIB at the 28k to 29k zone, THEN there is greater chance the BOTTOM was already in at 17567. Wave IV is still an expanded wave but the whole break below 28k was just a BIG BEARTRAP. There just have to be a bullish catalyst for this scenario to happen, like a FED pivot, a much lower inflation rate due to successful demand destruction or any type of good news about the invasion.
Not trading advice
Here are more reasons why the sub-12k zone may be the maximum pain for BTC.
Since the ATH @69k, BTC started an ABC correction as wave IV & has recently failed to hold 20k. Much action of the B counter-wave are done inside the yellow consolidation box (44k to 36k) between the 0.383 to 0.50 FIB retracement levels as measured from 4k to 69k. The move from 36k to 28k (Fib 0.50 to 0.618) was very fast encountering no strong S&R levels. The next leg down was halted by FIB 0.786 near sub-17k & a relief rally followed back up to consolidate inside the 22k to 20k pivot zone. 22k is the weekly wma200 level while 20k is a very strong psychological support.
Probability of more downside:
I believe the C-wave is not yet completed yet especially so if the sub-17k will not hold. BTC is probably right now doing the small wave 4 relief rally & there will still be a wave 5 down. Even if BTC holds 17k/18k, there is a great chance the relief rally may still be rejected by the 28k to 29k zone which is both the FIB 0.618 & the weekly wma150 area. This will be the SECOND MAJOR COUNTER-TREND RALLY since crashing from 69k. Having turned down, this time the sub-17k may not hold & the final maximum pain zone will be the sub-12k to 13k zone at FIB 0.854. The bottom may come in late 4Q2022.
BULLISH CASE: if BTC breaks back above the the 0.618 FIB at the 28k to 29k zone, THEN there is greater chance the BOTTOM was already in at 17567. Wave IV is still an expanded wave but the whole break below 28k was just a BIG BEARTRAP. There just have to be a bullish catalyst for this scenario to happen, like a FED pivot, a much lower inflation rate due to successful demand destruction or any type of good news about the invasion.
Not trading advice