Here is my analysis for BTC/USD moving forward for the near short term. Long term, I am very bullish!
I am pretty new to this, so please take it with a grain of salt. I greatly consider any thoughts/constructive criticism/feedback. I will also note that this analysis significantly mirrors that of some other traders. I have had this analysis on the Coinigy platform for a while now, and recently have started working more and more on here. Really love the chats and ideas - so I thought I would finally transfer some of my work here.
My interpretation is that we are wrapping up an Impulse EW. I have seen others peg this recent ATH at $5k as Leg 3. However, I have issues respecting Wave 4 Leg down with respect to Wave 1 in this instance. As such, I have pegged recent movement as the ABC correction wave from the 5th leg wave.
With the recent bottom-out to $3k, and rally back - the volume has been anything but stellar. We've seen a few large movements by some whales - but I'll be the first to admit, that I have been caught off guard with a few of these movements. Fortunately, I have been heeding the advice of some users like bdkelly1203, goldbug, and many more - I've done my best to be patient and disciplined and hedge my risk vs reward.
For the short term, I believe that the resistance we will face at $4100, $4300 and $4600 is far too strong for the current strength this bull market has exhibited to overcome. If we have a few whales blow their spouts near these resistances, then I can see us making it through. However, it won't be easy. Because of that, I think the path of least resistance is down. I am bull if we either burst past $4200 similar to how we cleared $3800 OR if it's slow and steady over the next few weeks (painfully slow). I remain bearish in the short term unless I see the bulls rally.
In the short term, my personal opinion is that we are in the midst of Leg A-B. I see B ending soon, or towards $4100-4200. From there, I see a few rather sharp corrections downward, followed by resistance on the way down until we get to our prior bottom at $3000. I think that the whales will break it, and then panic will set in. Where it ends is really dependent on how strong the market as a whole is able to rally together, or where the whales decide to cease the bloodshed. Personally, I don't see it going any lower than ~$2,400 levels, as the support here was extremely strong in the last recovery in July. If the market continues to panic and/or whales decide to keep the pain train rolling a little bit longer, then my next bottom would be $1800ish. Personally, assuming this pattern remains correct - my entry points are a series of orders from $3000 down to $2400, to cash average my price, as well as help reduce any emotional influences that might occur and I pull the trigger either too soon or too late. With zero trading costs when you post limit orders, I highly suggest placing 20, 50, even 100 orders incremented every few dollars, rather than a few large orders and have the stress of whether or not the price will reach your entry point or not. But, more experienced traders probably have a lot more confidence than I do as far as that goes.
**EDIT**
I placed the Impulse Wave // ABC Correction waves slightly offset to one another (i.e. the C leg near 4, as well as the impulse wave through the ABC correction wave after leg 5) to show the fractals within my analysis. It is merely to help separate the fractal labels. Ideally, I would have my ABC correction wave at 3 line up with the 4th leg down, etc.
I really appreciate any insight/advice/criticism/feedback that any of you may be able to provide. Thanks!
I am pretty new to this, so please take it with a grain of salt. I greatly consider any thoughts/constructive criticism/feedback. I will also note that this analysis significantly mirrors that of some other traders. I have had this analysis on the Coinigy platform for a while now, and recently have started working more and more on here. Really love the chats and ideas - so I thought I would finally transfer some of my work here.
My interpretation is that we are wrapping up an Impulse EW. I have seen others peg this recent ATH at $5k as Leg 3. However, I have issues respecting Wave 4 Leg down with respect to Wave 1 in this instance. As such, I have pegged recent movement as the ABC correction wave from the 5th leg wave.
With the recent bottom-out to $3k, and rally back - the volume has been anything but stellar. We've seen a few large movements by some whales - but I'll be the first to admit, that I have been caught off guard with a few of these movements. Fortunately, I have been heeding the advice of some users like bdkelly1203, goldbug, and many more - I've done my best to be patient and disciplined and hedge my risk vs reward.
For the short term, I believe that the resistance we will face at $4100, $4300 and $4600 is far too strong for the current strength this bull market has exhibited to overcome. If we have a few whales blow their spouts near these resistances, then I can see us making it through. However, it won't be easy. Because of that, I think the path of least resistance is down. I am bull if we either burst past $4200 similar to how we cleared $3800 OR if it's slow and steady over the next few weeks (painfully slow). I remain bearish in the short term unless I see the bulls rally.
In the short term, my personal opinion is that we are in the midst of Leg A-B. I see B ending soon, or towards $4100-4200. From there, I see a few rather sharp corrections downward, followed by resistance on the way down until we get to our prior bottom at $3000. I think that the whales will break it, and then panic will set in. Where it ends is really dependent on how strong the market as a whole is able to rally together, or where the whales decide to cease the bloodshed. Personally, I don't see it going any lower than ~$2,400 levels, as the support here was extremely strong in the last recovery in July. If the market continues to panic and/or whales decide to keep the pain train rolling a little bit longer, then my next bottom would be $1800ish. Personally, assuming this pattern remains correct - my entry points are a series of orders from $3000 down to $2400, to cash average my price, as well as help reduce any emotional influences that might occur and I pull the trigger either too soon or too late. With zero trading costs when you post limit orders, I highly suggest placing 20, 50, even 100 orders incremented every few dollars, rather than a few large orders and have the stress of whether or not the price will reach your entry point or not. But, more experienced traders probably have a lot more confidence than I do as far as that goes.
**EDIT**
I placed the Impulse Wave // ABC Correction waves slightly offset to one another (i.e. the C leg near 4, as well as the impulse wave through the ABC correction wave after leg 5) to show the fractals within my analysis. It is merely to help separate the fractal labels. Ideally, I would have my ABC correction wave at 3 line up with the 4th leg down, etc.
I really appreciate any insight/advice/criticism/feedback that any of you may be able to provide. Thanks!