Hello everybody,
It seems that Bitcoin is making its way to higher prices if we look at the whole picture, but in the meantime, it has some speedbumps that it has to overcome. I would say that this moment is one of them. From my point of view, there is an increased probability that the price will go to 10k-10.5k in the coming days. There I expect the resistance to be increased, and the long-awaited correction to come without too much delay. Why do I think the price will go over 10k before any relevant correction takes place? For a few reasons:
- big players utilized the Halving event to convince more people to join the boat, at higher and higher prices. In the absence of a serious wave of sales after reaching 9500(sell volumes were big, but not huge), I do not see why it would not continue the process of inflating the price to end up selling much more expensive to novices.
- whales have invested a lot of money to bring the price so high, it would be a shame not to make the distribution at prices even higher. :)
- the newspapers in my country began to write again about how wonderful cryptocurrencies are. This usually happens in the beginning or middle phase of a big pump :))). Obviously, whales will always best feed with small fishes. A lot of them.
- BTC tested twice the channel it entered on March 20 and exited on April 29, but each time it was quickly rejected (as can be seen in the image below). So, at least so far, the top trendline of this channel has turned into a kind of support.
- BTC quickly exceeded 200MA and did not rush to retest this level. Historically, from what I have observed so far, there are very high chances that the BTC price will increase steadily and healthily as long as the price is not attracted to the conflict zone at 200MA, the area where the bears would gain courage again.
- the price consolidates below a trendline (red line) that started in December 2017, without being violently rejected. This means that the bulls warm up again to try to cross this line (from which they were rejected with surgical precision, but not violently as I said)
But that's about it for the bullish scenario.
Bearish scenario: If the current formation turns out to be more of a descending triangle, things might look like this.
Of course, I can be wrong. It wouldn't be the first time, but it certainly won't be the last.
This is the first analysis I do and post on Tradingview, so any feedback is welcome.
Thank you.
Sisif.
It seems that Bitcoin is making its way to higher prices if we look at the whole picture, but in the meantime, it has some speedbumps that it has to overcome. I would say that this moment is one of them. From my point of view, there is an increased probability that the price will go to 10k-10.5k in the coming days. There I expect the resistance to be increased, and the long-awaited correction to come without too much delay. Why do I think the price will go over 10k before any relevant correction takes place? For a few reasons:
- big players utilized the Halving event to convince more people to join the boat, at higher and higher prices. In the absence of a serious wave of sales after reaching 9500(sell volumes were big, but not huge), I do not see why it would not continue the process of inflating the price to end up selling much more expensive to novices.
- whales have invested a lot of money to bring the price so high, it would be a shame not to make the distribution at prices even higher. :)
- the newspapers in my country began to write again about how wonderful cryptocurrencies are. This usually happens in the beginning or middle phase of a big pump :))). Obviously, whales will always best feed with small fishes. A lot of them.
- BTC tested twice the channel it entered on March 20 and exited on April 29, but each time it was quickly rejected (as can be seen in the image below). So, at least so far, the top trendline of this channel has turned into a kind of support.
- BTC quickly exceeded 200MA and did not rush to retest this level. Historically, from what I have observed so far, there are very high chances that the BTC price will increase steadily and healthily as long as the price is not attracted to the conflict zone at 200MA, the area where the bears would gain courage again.
- the price consolidates below a trendline (red line) that started in December 2017, without being violently rejected. This means that the bulls warm up again to try to cross this line (from which they were rejected with surgical precision, but not violently as I said)
But that's about it for the bullish scenario.
Bearish scenario: If the current formation turns out to be more of a descending triangle, things might look like this.
Of course, I can be wrong. It wouldn't be the first time, but it certainly won't be the last.
This is the first analysis I do and post on Tradingview, so any feedback is welcome.
Thank you.
Sisif.
Trade active:
I entered a long position after the breakout got confirmed.
Comment:
I will take some profit at 9380, just in case BTC decides to for a channel and test 8.8-8.9k area again.
Trade closed manually:
Took profit at 9380 and 9350.
Trade active:
I managed to reenter at 9250 with a limit order. I plan to take some profit at 10450. I think it might go even higher after retesting de 9.7-10k area. Take care.
Trade closed: stop reached:
Price dumped at 8100 in just a few minutes, market stop-loss was executed much lower than the trigger price. Lesson learned.