Not going to write a huge amount in the initial part of this TA. This is very much an abstract and an idea based on large fractals of trendlines. It will probably be better to download the chart and then pull it apart/tell me what is right and wrong about it. What you see in it, what you don't
The main thing I want to point out with this TA is that 2014 and 2017 have great similarities, but they are not the same. BTC was in a very different space back then than to where it is now. History is not going to repeat itself unless we have a MT GOX moment again. You can see from the organization of BTC's recovery since 2017 that it has been far more cohesive than 2014. We don't know how and when it is going to end, and the strongest possibility is going to be between the two uptrend lines that BTC has surfed since 2014. At present we are testing the upper trendline, but it is most likely that BTC will want to test the lower trendline at some point for confirmation. Whether that be now, or sometime later.
The biggest clue as to what will happen next is the 3 wave pattern in the RSI to find bottom. BTC loves to work in 3's and the trajectory of bitcoin's pattern in the RSI would hint to a huge drop to bottom before launching back up within the next month. The second piece of evidence to back this up is the incredibly bearish 200MA crossing the 300MA at this exact moment in time. Considering how overbought btc has been on the 4H chart, and considering that this coincides with the pattern in the 1D BTC RSI, I draw the conclusion that we are due a massive cutback now before we enter a clear new market.
I may be wrong, I spectacularly missed how far the current pump has traveled. I saw it as a bulltrap and I still do. It may travel a bit more - I expect it to. However, from looking at the fractals and the oscillators I see a deep and sharp new low being created before BTC can start to run. The most important piece of advice I have is to set your stops with each move. If the run has started or not, you will want to protect your gains. Best of luck.
The main thing I want to point out with this TA is that 2014 and 2017 have great similarities, but they are not the same. BTC was in a very different space back then than to where it is now. History is not going to repeat itself unless we have a MT GOX moment again. You can see from the organization of BTC's recovery since 2017 that it has been far more cohesive than 2014. We don't know how and when it is going to end, and the strongest possibility is going to be between the two uptrend lines that BTC has surfed since 2014. At present we are testing the upper trendline, but it is most likely that BTC will want to test the lower trendline at some point for confirmation. Whether that be now, or sometime later.
The biggest clue as to what will happen next is the 3 wave pattern in the RSI to find bottom. BTC loves to work in 3's and the trajectory of bitcoin's pattern in the RSI would hint to a huge drop to bottom before launching back up within the next month. The second piece of evidence to back this up is the incredibly bearish 200MA crossing the 300MA at this exact moment in time. Considering how overbought btc has been on the 4H chart, and considering that this coincides with the pattern in the 1D BTC RSI, I draw the conclusion that we are due a massive cutback now before we enter a clear new market.
I may be wrong, I spectacularly missed how far the current pump has traveled. I saw it as a bulltrap and I still do. It may travel a bit more - I expect it to. However, from looking at the fractals and the oscillators I see a deep and sharp new low being created before BTC can start to run. The most important piece of advice I have is to set your stops with each move. If the run has started or not, you will want to protect your gains. Best of luck.
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A little more detail for clarity. Or those too lazy to zoom.
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Ignore the last post as I had accidentally moved the bottom trendline.
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Just a quick update at this tense hour.
Red triangle still in play.
Red triangle still in play.
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This is starting to look pretty legit. Well, it is far more legit than that last IH/S which got played. Fib targets from baseline on the chart.
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Crunch time. Set your stops and prey
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Two retracement possibilities.
NO ETF - well that was obvious. Now that BTC has to find it's path more harmoniously lets come back and look at where we might retrace to in the near term.
Let's do the more painful scenario first. BTC burst up in the last run and took little care to retrace or hang about. As I have mentioned; this would indicate a sharper and more severe dip back towards earth. Many people were left stranded at about the $6.8k marker, and have been waiting oh so patiently for entry back into the market. Normally, Elliot retracements like to finish around the fourth wave, but we have a BTC needing of a recharge, leading to many people taking profits and waiting for others to take the buying risk.
In this scenario I see BTC retracing to 7200, 7800-8000, then to 6800 before creating a higher low.
The second scenario is that we have already finished correcting, and are now awaiting a move above 8400 to confirm a new wave - I see this move as less likely; a lot of traders will be sitting out whilst we still are not in a "bull run" and many people will be afraid BTC will create a new low. Most alts will be getting smashed and consolidated throughout this period, and although it would be generally advisable to stay in your alt currencies and sit this out, panic has well and truly set in. Because alts value are so low; it's not taking a lot of BTC to buy them. Even though lots of people are exiting their positions and going back into fiat at a huge loss, the chances of people buying them are going to be those who are holding BTC, and therefore we have a situation where there isn't new money coming into BTC to buy alternatives, but money already in BTC being used to buy alternatives, whilst money exiting alternatives is coming out of BTC all together.... I hope that made some sense.
NO ETF - well that was obvious. Now that BTC has to find it's path more harmoniously lets come back and look at where we might retrace to in the near term.
Let's do the more painful scenario first. BTC burst up in the last run and took little care to retrace or hang about. As I have mentioned; this would indicate a sharper and more severe dip back towards earth. Many people were left stranded at about the $6.8k marker, and have been waiting oh so patiently for entry back into the market. Normally, Elliot retracements like to finish around the fourth wave, but we have a BTC needing of a recharge, leading to many people taking profits and waiting for others to take the buying risk.
In this scenario I see BTC retracing to 7200, 7800-8000, then to 6800 before creating a higher low.
The second scenario is that we have already finished correcting, and are now awaiting a move above 8400 to confirm a new wave - I see this move as less likely; a lot of traders will be sitting out whilst we still are not in a "bull run" and many people will be afraid BTC will create a new low. Most alts will be getting smashed and consolidated throughout this period, and although it would be generally advisable to stay in your alt currencies and sit this out, panic has well and truly set in. Because alts value are so low; it's not taking a lot of BTC to buy them. Even though lots of people are exiting their positions and going back into fiat at a huge loss, the chances of people buying them are going to be those who are holding BTC, and therefore we have a situation where there isn't new money coming into BTC to buy alternatives, but money already in BTC being used to buy alternatives, whilst money exiting alternatives is coming out of BTC all together.... I hope that made some sense.
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Wave C has extended 200pts further than I anticipated and we are resting on the 0.786 fib of this move.
The original chart is more in play than ever right now. That IHS spring was nothing more than a manipulated bull trap designed to take your BTC away from you.
Right now we are waiting on BTC to drop into the abyss or make a higher low. I am holding my positions here, as I can't be bothered losing any money in a manipulated trading game. We appear to be on top of the green triangle but I think the fib levels hold greater strength at the moment as BTC just blasted straight through that green triangle on the way up, without care for confirming its shape.
On the downside, I may use any more downward movement to buy more of my long-term position - Which btw is QASH - Soon to be LQD (liquid) token. I can't shill this enough.
Right now we are waiting on BTC to drop into the abyss or make a higher low. I am holding my positions here, as I can't be bothered losing any money in a manipulated trading game. We appear to be on top of the green triangle but I think the fib levels hold greater strength at the moment as BTC just blasted straight through that green triangle on the way up, without care for confirming its shape.
On the downside, I may use any more downward movement to buy more of my long-term position - Which btw is QASH - Soon to be LQD (liquid) token. I can't shill this enough.
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Slightly Bearish indicators from the OBV in relation to price. However, this can be just as much of an indication of fear from retail trading, and a lack of trading from professionals/semi-professional traders as we are in a "No trade zone" If we stay at this price point for a while it will be a good idea to look for the OBV divergence patterns on lower time frames.
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Here is a bullish view of the situation. (weekly)
Long-term OBV bullish div. We have retraced to the 0.236 fib level already, and we are capable of making a higher low at this point in time if we follow the current short/mid uptrend line
Long-term OBV bullish div. We have retraced to the 0.236 fib level already, and we are capable of making a higher low at this point in time if we follow the current short/mid uptrend line
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We have come back to re-test the green wedge/triangle to give us validation of the first BTC downtrend breakout (as you can see, we have formed several down-trend wedges/triangles (red green blue) after BTC breaks out of the previous one. This has been the structure of the correction.
What is interesting/solid about this position is that it coincides with the 0.7 fib of the final btc push/move from 5300 and it also lands on an up-trend line created at the bottom of that sketchy IHS spring in the last upwards move.
Downside from here is super-bearish. You don't usually get 4th or 5th chances in a market (referring to the bounce off 6000/5800)
What is interesting/solid about this position is that it coincides with the 0.7 fib of the final btc push/move from 5300 and it also lands on an up-trend line created at the bottom of that sketchy IHS spring in the last upwards move.
Downside from here is super-bearish. You don't usually get 4th or 5th chances in a market (referring to the bounce off 6000/5800)
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This is getting quite prophetic
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Bullish view: Massive potential pennant bull flag. Target 10k.