This is a different kind of analysis than most people usually do. Sure, if you're not a believer of conspiracies you may not believe this. But I believe everything I wrote on this chart.
Around October to November is when Bitcoin mania started, the bullrun really overextended itself like we've never seen before. I used Coinbase for this chart because it's 1. A fiat exchange, not Tether and 2. Normie central
You can see on December 7th is when it really went parabolic; anyone hodling then, that's a huge sell signal. CNBC coverage of Bitcoin daily, etc. Then it really hit the top and that's when the futures market launched. From there on, it was just carnage. As soon as the futures market started, Bitcoin would get dumped like never before in history. The dump from 20K to 6K is a combination of futures markets and a clean correction of an overextended bull run, as shown by the KVO indicator, which is an oscillator of volume. You can see there isn't much fighting the trend.
Now after the 6K bottom is where it gets super interesting...it starts pumping with next to no volume. It's only normal that it bounced so aggressively at 6K, but the pump that followed afterwards (to 11.7K, twice) is completely artificial. Bitcoin was being pushed up by tape painters on Bitfinex and followed by arbitrage bots. I watched this every day when it was happening, the volume of all fiat exchanges was decreasing daily then; at one point Coinbase was down to 8,000 BTC in a day on the USD pair. That's an unsustainable pump with no new money coming in, propelled simply by leveraged traders.
Finally, after the dump at 11.7K double top is when it started being all chop. A huge sell off to 8500 began after which it's just been back & forth leverage traders getting REKT in all directions. If you look at BitMEX volume, it's pretty much ATH since the dump. The sentiment on social media and forums (Reddit, 4chan, Telegram, etc.) has been negative and people saying they are getting into shorting. *cue "shorting is the new paradigm" copypasta* The whales have been manipulating the price downwards ever since this level, and any time there is a struggle to pierce a resistance, it is immediately followed by a 1000+ BTC marketsell on Finex. This leads me to believe that people are buying the dip both on spot and margin and getting wrecked by stop hunters and manipulators.
The wedge has been painted so anyone that denies that the manipulators are in effect can justify it with a simple statement..."bro, it's a wedge"—the point here is to drive the price of Bitcoin down in order to accumulate it cheap (and it's becoming harder and harder for them to do so), without actually making normies lose faith in Bitcoin. If it is driven too low, mass exits will follow. If you don't believe that there are manipulators, the proof is very clear (see: OKEx).
As for the exact bottom, obviously no one can call it. But I expect us to bounce from the big volume node; anything lower than that would be normie mass exit zone. After that it's accumulation period for USD whales...after all, there are only 21 million bitcoins.
Around October to November is when Bitcoin mania started, the bullrun really overextended itself like we've never seen before. I used Coinbase for this chart because it's 1. A fiat exchange, not Tether and 2. Normie central
You can see on December 7th is when it really went parabolic; anyone hodling then, that's a huge sell signal. CNBC coverage of Bitcoin daily, etc. Then it really hit the top and that's when the futures market launched. From there on, it was just carnage. As soon as the futures market started, Bitcoin would get dumped like never before in history. The dump from 20K to 6K is a combination of futures markets and a clean correction of an overextended bull run, as shown by the KVO indicator, which is an oscillator of volume. You can see there isn't much fighting the trend.
Now after the 6K bottom is where it gets super interesting...it starts pumping with next to no volume. It's only normal that it bounced so aggressively at 6K, but the pump that followed afterwards (to 11.7K, twice) is completely artificial. Bitcoin was being pushed up by tape painters on Bitfinex and followed by arbitrage bots. I watched this every day when it was happening, the volume of all fiat exchanges was decreasing daily then; at one point Coinbase was down to 8,000 BTC in a day on the USD pair. That's an unsustainable pump with no new money coming in, propelled simply by leveraged traders.
Finally, after the dump at 11.7K double top is when it started being all chop. A huge sell off to 8500 began after which it's just been back & forth leverage traders getting REKT in all directions. If you look at BitMEX volume, it's pretty much ATH since the dump. The sentiment on social media and forums (Reddit, 4chan, Telegram, etc.) has been negative and people saying they are getting into shorting. *cue "shorting is the new paradigm" copypasta* The whales have been manipulating the price downwards ever since this level, and any time there is a struggle to pierce a resistance, it is immediately followed by a 1000+ BTC marketsell on Finex. This leads me to believe that people are buying the dip both on spot and margin and getting wrecked by stop hunters and manipulators.
The wedge has been painted so anyone that denies that the manipulators are in effect can justify it with a simple statement..."bro, it's a wedge"—the point here is to drive the price of Bitcoin down in order to accumulate it cheap (and it's becoming harder and harder for them to do so), without actually making normies lose faith in Bitcoin. If it is driven too low, mass exits will follow. If you don't believe that there are manipulators, the proof is very clear (see: OKEx).
As for the exact bottom, obviously no one can call it. But I expect us to bounce from the big volume node; anything lower than that would be normie mass exit zone. After that it's accumulation period for USD whales...after all, there are only 21 million bitcoins.
Comment:
I've stopped shorting at this point, closed my last one. Started buying BTC on spot every day because I'm OK with being 10% off. Compounding my gains with alts, made a nice buck flipping ADA from 2300 to 2800.
Comment:
Boy, am I glad I closed my short...