AlexPrather
Long

Load the boat Again PT: 780-820~

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
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2
There are a lot of ideas I want to show on the charts, but would require me using multiple time frames, which is very hard to do so I will outline them here.
1. Buying above 10dma, selling below has been a consistently profitable strategy. This strategy alone would have gotten you huge returns and kept you in during the strongest pushes, and out during most weakness.

2. For more faster moving tops/bottoms. the cross over of the 4 ema and the 8 ema on the 2h,4h and 6h, can be used, depending on just how fast price action is. For very fast price action even 15min could be used, or just buying straight out oversold.

3. 200 6h is the mack daddy of supports,and move above the 50 6h usually signal a leg up. We should get a leg up here followed by a long term basing or general sideways movement with some sell offs as 200 6h catches up.

4 . Almost every single time bitcoin has crashed and come back bitcoin reaches the prior "base" established and consolidates for a long time as people who have been underwater sell to break even. This are was 110-130 in prior crash, now its 780-820. As long as bitcoin stays above 200 6h long term holders should feel comfortable, but sell any parabolic moves, unless we enter parabolic mode (Which would probably require a break to new highs above 1150~).

5. Overall the news environment has been really positive. Apple finally let bitcoin apps back, which is absolutely HUGE imo and clears up that position. Remeber some 20-25% of people using smartphones in developed countries use apple , and apple smartphones account for something like 55% of spending, as apple consumers are usually bigger spenders.

6. A lot of strides are being taken in the investment world, bitcoin trust and trade platform for accredited investors on secondmarket, winklevoss adding bitcoin price index to bloomberg, and a lot of startups and exchanges focusing on catering to new york and London clients. At the moment no one cares, but imo if we do get some momentum, and funds like fortress start reporting Returns on their bitcoin holdings, this could set off a chain reaction.

7. Lastly chart is finally looking better for the long term horizon, as well as more transparent policies in many jurisdictions (singapore and Switzerland being the most important).

The only real Issue for bitcoin at the moment is lack of market makers and liquidity/thin order book issues. Also bitcoin reclaiming 200 dma with strength will be a huge move for technical chartist everywhere, as the last reclaim was weak and shortlived. If secondmarkets exchange system and other upcoming exchanges solve problems regarding liquidity and thin orderbooks, that could be the biggest boost to bitcoin .

Final thoughts: This is a trade, not long term investment advice, my downside area is 595~ I would cut 33% of my position if we go under 600 at this point, as that key whole number is important. The objective is asymetric risk/reward, and at the moment the likelihod for a push to new local highs is relatively high given the payout ratio at stake.

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