Why am i inclined to believe that we are in a correction and not in an impulse wave up? Because i see bearish divergences on RSI and MACD on TF up to 1H. Possible targets for this correction (if my wave count si correct) 8.8k-8.6k. If you have a different idea don't be shy, share it, comment on the chart.
Comment:
The divergences gave a good signal but i think there is something wrong with my EW count. This might not have been an expanded flat and point B could have been the point were wave 5 (in blue) and 3 (circled in black) actually ended and the ABC correction started. Looking on a 4H TF this scenario seems plausible. The price bounced off the golden pocket zone (0.618-0.65 retrace) but if it goes lower (at the 0.786 retrace) i will have to do a recount from 7250 because in this case wave 4 (circled in black) will overlap heavily with wave 1 (circled in black).
Comment:
For now i believe that this is the correct count because of the following reasons:
- in wave 4 (circled in black) wave C is a 1.618 extension of wave A
- wave 4 (circled in black) retraced to the golden pocket zone (0.618-0.65 of wave 3 circled in black)
- wave 4 (circled in black) overlaps with wave 1 (circled in black) very little which is allowed
For now i believe that this is the correct count because of the following reasons:
- in wave 4 (circled in black) wave C is a 1.618 extension of wave A
- wave 4 (circled in black) retraced to the golden pocket zone (0.618-0.65 of wave 3 circled in black)
- wave 4 (circled in black) overlaps with wave 1 (circled in black) very little which is allowed
Comment:
If we fall under 8455 we will have an Elliot Wave failure and this will give as another ABC correction (3 waves down).
