Total crypto market 1M timeframes - BTC - BTCUSD compared
Hi!
Apparently, technical analysis does not work, but on its basis we can base many future movements, entries or exits. A self-fulfilling prophecy which is technical analysis over the past few years has estimated a pretty good time to jump in and jump out the train.
1. Today I'll will show you what we can infer from the charts - price action, rsi, stoch & some herd noise.
Shortly about indicators - As we all know, these are lagging indicators, but it's pretty good to use them to take wider picture on the market structure.
Here is some thoughts about currently market structure played at historical data with few more tools;
Currently on the monthly chart frame using Fibonacci retracement price get to the 0.786 point -> same as bitcoin chart. - This level is quite important as price action meet the 200 moving average – last several times it was great opportunity to take some expositions at this point assuming long term moves (from the begging of bitcoin history including 1m time frame candles – bitcoin didn’t fell & close below 200 moving average.).
Otherwise in this place total crypto market cap reached “last bubble highs” around 771.5Billion $ of total value.
Bitcoin with this total crypto market value (late 2017) was around 19.875 $ price per piece – same as now was (few hours earlier).
Based on historical facts on last two cycles - last relative strength index topped ( 3x red circles RSI window/ confirming divergence) - around 01 march 2022 - from this point, we will have approximately 730 days until price rise up significantly which can be around march 2024 – 1 month until next bitcoin halving.
2. From example some thoughts I always keep in mind that in crypto it is all base on multiplying your exposition:
-> Since buy at 60k, your path until 100k give you 66,667% gain,
-> Since you buy at 20k, gain will be 500%,
-> Since you but at 10k your profit will reach 1000% - it’s 10x compared to 1,667% when you buy at 60k.
It is very likely that we will see price range 14/ 16k $ for one bitcoin, without excluding deeper dive in short/mid term.
-> From 60k to 20k is 67,67% down/
-> From 60k to 10k is 83,33% down/
-> From 20k to 10k is still -50% down/
Don't catch the falling knives should be appropriate definition if you don't calculate your risk -> nice way to avoid risky entries is DCA - which mean dollar cost average - in other words entry price averaging.
3. Some thoughts about sentiment.
> Positive features:
- BTC as know was never hacked,
- It gives P2P transactions,
- diversifies portfolio - best known digital value,
- long term dolar oversupply (btc priced in dollar) – as we know all of FIAT currency is going to zero over the time – knowing it, we can assume that Bitcoin going to infinity compared to USD - (look BTC starting price ~0.10$),
- on-chain whale accumulation,
- price correction ~75% down – (estimated 75-85% for my attractive range),
- negative social media sentiment, “crypto is a scam” & others,
- fundamental – bitcoin was created by people for people, and its value its created by unforced faith.
>Negative features:
- unfavorable regulations for cryptocurrency (especialy PoW consensus) – including green energy,
- bitcoin sell pression from institutions – cutting the corners - to take over the market* and attempt to liquidate centralized collateraled holdings like Celsius – adding maximal fear,
- uncertain situation on the financial markets, bitcoin will be probably one of the assets to cover other losses,
- as allways, black swans.
4. I'm not saying that bitcoin won't hit new lows and break a long-standing trend, but I think it's unlikely. Im still think that bitcoin is very risky asset with high volatile, but its great opportunity to diversify your portfolio into digital and very liquid assets - inversely correlated to FIAT currencies. This market stays here for longer and it looks like it is repetitive itself.
Apparently, technical analysis does not work, but on its basis we can base many future movements, entries or exits. A self-fulfilling prophecy which is technical analysis over the past few years has estimated a pretty good time to jump in and jump out the train.
1. Today I'll will show you what we can infer from the charts - price action, rsi, stoch & some herd noise.
Shortly about indicators - As we all know, these are lagging indicators, but it's pretty good to use them to take wider picture on the market structure.
Here is some thoughts about currently market structure played at historical data with few more tools;
Currently on the monthly chart frame using Fibonacci retracement price get to the 0.786 point -> same as bitcoin chart. - This level is quite important as price action meet the 200 moving average – last several times it was great opportunity to take some expositions at this point assuming long term moves (from the begging of bitcoin history including 1m time frame candles – bitcoin didn’t fell & close below 200 moving average.).
Otherwise in this place total crypto market cap reached “last bubble highs” around 771.5Billion $ of total value.
Bitcoin with this total crypto market value (late 2017) was around 19.875 $ price per piece – same as now was (few hours earlier).
Based on historical facts on last two cycles - last relative strength index topped ( 3x red circles RSI window/ confirming divergence) - around 01 march 2022 - from this point, we will have approximately 730 days until price rise up significantly which can be around march 2024 – 1 month until next bitcoin halving.
2. From example some thoughts I always keep in mind that in crypto it is all base on multiplying your exposition:
-> Since buy at 60k, your path until 100k give you 66,667% gain,
-> Since you buy at 20k, gain will be 500%,
-> Since you but at 10k your profit will reach 1000% - it’s 10x compared to 1,667% when you buy at 60k.
It is very likely that we will see price range 14/ 16k $ for one bitcoin, without excluding deeper dive in short/mid term.
-> From 60k to 20k is 67,67% down/
-> From 60k to 10k is 83,33% down/
-> From 20k to 10k is still -50% down/
Don't catch the falling knives should be appropriate definition if you don't calculate your risk -> nice way to avoid risky entries is DCA - which mean dollar cost average - in other words entry price averaging.
3. Some thoughts about sentiment.
> Positive features:
- BTC as know was never hacked,
- It gives P2P transactions,
- diversifies portfolio - best known digital value,
- long term dolar oversupply (btc priced in dollar) – as we know all of FIAT currency is going to zero over the time – knowing it, we can assume that Bitcoin going to infinity compared to USD - (look BTC starting price ~0.10$),
- on-chain whale accumulation,
- price correction ~75% down – (estimated 75-85% for my attractive range),
- negative social media sentiment, “crypto is a scam” & others,
- fundamental – bitcoin was created by people for people, and its value its created by unforced faith.
>Negative features:
- unfavorable regulations for cryptocurrency (especialy PoW consensus) – including green energy,
- bitcoin sell pression from institutions – cutting the corners - to take over the market* and attempt to liquidate centralized collateraled holdings like Celsius – adding maximal fear,
- uncertain situation on the financial markets, bitcoin will be probably one of the assets to cover other losses,
- as allways, black swans.
4. I'm not saying that bitcoin won't hit new lows and break a long-standing trend, but I think it's unlikely. Im still think that bitcoin is very risky asset with high volatile, but its great opportunity to diversify your portfolio into digital and very liquid assets - inversely correlated to FIAT currencies. This market stays here for longer and it looks like it is repetitive itself.