I'm a big BTC enthusiast. I think it's a wonderful and very useful invention. I think the long term prospects of value are good. However, I am also pragmatic. BTC is in the final throws of a bear run that started at the beginning of the year, had a brief respite in April and since has resumed the bear posture. The true test will be at $340. A plunge through this second to last support layer is ominous. I'm looking for buying opportunities in two regions. $340 holds and price action begins to consolidate above the moving averages illustrated by the deep red moving average. Or, in the $100 to $135 range where final long term price support still exists.
I don't have great hopes for a $340 hold. This price support level has a very small volume history of trades. Most of the people that bought at this level have sold at much higher prices.
Fundamental factors are at play. The BTC mining activity has far exceeded the expectations and is currently debasing the value. This is a relatively short term problem due to the finite ceiling of circulation. Also, adding downward pressure are the retailers that accept BTC payments but then transfer this back into their native currencies. This is a longer term fundamental pressure but it does get alleviated as consumers buy back cheaper BTC to replenish the cycle. As long as the price of BTC continues to slide, consumers will be reluctant to buy back in.
The wave and cycle theorists are all full of hot air. BTC market capitalization and usage is far too premature to predict any future performance. It will be the fundamentals that dictate future value. Right now the fundamentals are not so good. Technically, MACD has a big wide downward pointing open mouth and shows no sign of a bottom action.
I don't have great hopes for a $340 hold. This price support level has a very small volume history of trades. Most of the people that bought at this level have sold at much higher prices.
Fundamental factors are at play. The BTC mining activity has far exceeded the expectations and is currently debasing the value. This is a relatively short term problem due to the finite ceiling of circulation. Also, adding downward pressure are the retailers that accept BTC payments but then transfer this back into their native currencies. This is a longer term fundamental pressure but it does get alleviated as consumers buy back cheaper BTC to replenish the cycle. As long as the price of BTC continues to slide, consumers will be reluctant to buy back in.
The wave and cycle theorists are all full of hot air. BTC market capitalization and usage is far too premature to predict any future performance. It will be the fundamentals that dictate future value. Right now the fundamentals are not so good. Technically, MACD has a big wide downward pointing open mouth and shows no sign of a bottom action.
