Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
Sawcruhteez Strategies: Comprehensive Trading Strategy - Consensio | Comprehensive Trading Process | How to BUY THE DIP | Advanced Dollar Cost Averaging Methods
Consensio: Long term is bullish. Short and medium term starting to turn bearish. If 50 and 200 EMA’s get death cross on 4h then medium term trend will be bearish for me.
Patterns: Pulling up and into death cross on 4h? If so would that be considered a pattern?
Horizontals: R: $10,800 | S: $10,500
Parabolic SAR: If looking for SAR based on Welles Wilder’s original calculations then use “Lucid SAR” on Trading View. Weekly bullish SAR recently brokedown which indicates medium term bear trend.
Futures Curve: Contango, but spread is narrowing on this selloff which is bullish
Funding Rates: Shorts pay long 0.01%. Nothing out of balance here.
BTCUSDSHORTS: Shorts are at new all time low
TD’ Sequential: 4h hit a green 9 on this last move
Ichimoku Cloud: Weekly and daily are bullish. Look at how the daily cloud (traditional settings) acted as support. 4h is bearish.
Relative Strength Index: Appears to be resisting 50 on daily.
Average Directional Index: Daily has fallen below 20 which is similar to the RSI resisting 50. Weekly is just showing the first signs of reversing.
Price Action: 24h: +8.51% | 2w: -3.76% | 1m: +16.67%
Summary: My last update was on July 7th and that is when I predicted “four figure Bitcoin within 48 hours”. Furthermore my price target for the expected selloff was $8,975 by July 10th.
Both of those predictions were wrong. I roughly got the price targets right, but the time targets were about 1 week premature. Profitable trading revolves around projecting the price and the time. If you get one of those wrong then you are wrong, simple as that.
This has been a great example. I shorted above $11,000 with a $9,000 price target and I lost money eventhough the price went to $9,000 within weeks of entering my position. I had a stop set at $11,876 and that was triggered before the selloff that followed.
This is a great example of why trading revolves around price and time. Get one wrong and you will lose money.
About 5 days after my call the price of bitcoin reached my target of $9,000. I had a pretty good idea of where the price was going in the future but I still lost money because I thought it would happen a little sooner than it did.
With all of that being said I am prepared to take my second stab at the same call. As it stands I strongly expect four figure Bitcoin within the next 48 hours. From my perspective the market is very overbought while testing a major resistance level. This tells me that resistance will hold and that another leg down is to be expected.
Therefore I am viewing this as a good opportunity to sell. Whether that be short or a profit take.
It looks to me like $10,800 resistance is holding. If that is the case then we should get a death cross with the 50 and 200 EMAs on the 4h chart. If we do get a death cross then it would lead to a $7,500 target, at a minimum.
As a result I am viewing this as a selling opportunity. Selling $10,500 - $10,700 with a stop at $10,900 makes a lot of sense to me. If we are able to breakthough $10,800 and spend some time above that price (> 1 day) then I will very much be changing my tune while looking to buy back what I sold around $11,000.
Sawcruhteez Strategies: Comprehensive Trading Strategy - Consensio | Comprehensive Trading Process | How to BUY THE DIP | Advanced Dollar Cost Averaging Methods
Consensio: Long term is bullish. Short and medium term starting to turn bearish. If 50 and 200 EMA’s get death cross on 4h then medium term trend will be bearish for me.
Patterns: Pulling up and into death cross on 4h? If so would that be considered a pattern?
Horizontals: R: $10,800 | S: $10,500
Parabolic SAR: If looking for SAR based on Welles Wilder’s original calculations then use “Lucid SAR” on Trading View. Weekly bullish SAR recently brokedown which indicates medium term bear trend.
Futures Curve: Contango, but spread is narrowing on this selloff which is bullish
Funding Rates: Shorts pay long 0.01%. Nothing out of balance here.
BTCUSDSHORTS: Shorts are at new all time low
TD’ Sequential: 4h hit a green 9 on this last move
Ichimoku Cloud: Weekly and daily are bullish. Look at how the daily cloud (traditional settings) acted as support. 4h is bearish.
Average Directional Index: Daily has fallen below 20 which is similar to the RSI resisting 50. Weekly is just showing the first signs of reversing.
Price Action: 24h: +8.51% | 2w: -3.76% | 1m: +16.67%
Summary: My last update was on July 7th and that is when I predicted “four figure Bitcoin within 48 hours”. Furthermore my price target for the expected selloff was $8,975 by July 10th.
Both of those predictions were wrong. I roughly got the price targets right, but the time targets were about 1 week premature. Profitable trading revolves around projecting the price and the time. If you get one of those wrong then you are wrong, simple as that.
This has been a great example. I shorted above $11,000 with a $9,000 price target and I lost money eventhough the price went to $9,000 within weeks of entering my position. I had a stop set at $11,876 and that was triggered before the selloff that followed.
This is a great example of why trading revolves around price and time. Get one wrong and you will lose money.
About 5 days after my call the price of bitcoin reached my target of $9,000. I had a pretty good idea of where the price was going in the future but I still lost money because I thought it would happen a little sooner than it did.
With all of that being said I am prepared to take my second stab at the same call. As it stands I strongly expect four figure Bitcoin within the next 48 hours. From my perspective the market is very overbought while testing a major resistance level. This tells me that resistance will hold and that another leg down is to be expected.
Therefore I am viewing this as a good opportunity to sell. Whether that be short or a profit take.
It looks to me like $10,800 resistance is holding. If that is the case then we should get a death cross with the 50 and 200 EMAs on the 4h chart. If we do get a death cross then it would lead to a $7,500 target, at a minimum.
As a result I am viewing this as a selling opportunity. Selling $10,500 - $10,700 with a stop at $10,900 makes a lot of sense to me. If we are able to breakthough $10,800 and spend some time above that price (> 1 day) then I will very much be changing my tune while looking to buy back what I sold around $11,000.
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