So i tried comparing the 2013 chart to the current chart to see if we can learn something from that and get any wiser as to where current price is going next. At first sight they look pretty similar. You can see how from the top we come down to 1, bounce to 2, and dip to 3. after that we have a test of the trendline in the yellow area.
Looking a bit closer, the red 1 needed the .618 fib for a bounce, the yellow one needed the .382 fib for a bounce. point 2 and 3 after that on both charts roughly go to the same fib retrace heights. So the initial dump was larger in 2013. This time around the dip to 3 came quicker in time after the top which also bounced from long term support.
After that we go up in both charts and this time broke the downtrend line for a bit before going under again, no huge differences there.
This time because the buildup to the ATH took much longer we have some long term support lines closing in. you see the green line in both charts. right now we are just above it at the yellow 4.2 and you can see at 4.1 it already supported the price once. If we get a strong bounce like at 4.1 that would validate again this support is strong. The first time we came close to some long term support in 2014 was half a year later at the red 4.1 which bounced us a couple of times but not as strong as we bounced of the yellow 4.1 this time which gave almost a 50% bounce. in 2013 it was about a 30% bounce. After that it bounced once more before one last capitulation run after which we went sideways for months.
So the question now is, will this long term support hold us up for now as it did in 2014 when we started testing it? I dont know but we will found out soon and go from there.
If it holds that is great and we will break out of the long term downtrend on this linear scale (on log scale not yet, that can happen between 8 and 10k depending on the speed of the price action) It doesnt mean we will never break the green support anymore but it is a good sign if it holds, especially if we bounce strongly. If we stay to close to this support line chances are higher we will break down through it a bit later on in time.
If we do fall through the green support line and close the daily under there it is likely we see more downside (like the red 5) which maybe is the last capitulation run like the last bubble, only then it happened a year after the ATH. If we do that now only 3 months after the ATH that would be great since that might be the end of this downtrend and we can just do some sideways for a while and or start going up slowly again when the market is ready.
Imo the market got more mature and we are not gonna slow bleed for 1 year like we did all of 2014. More money in the industry, more players want to enter, everything is moving faster. How it will look like exactly this time around, i dont know, but it looks like we will get some clues soon from the price action in this area after which we can reevaluate the situation.
Ill check out the log charts later and see if i can get additional info from that chart 2013 vs now, for now, have a nice weekend.
Looking a bit closer, the red 1 needed the .618 fib for a bounce, the yellow one needed the .382 fib for a bounce. point 2 and 3 after that on both charts roughly go to the same fib retrace heights. So the initial dump was larger in 2013. This time around the dip to 3 came quicker in time after the top which also bounced from long term support.
After that we go up in both charts and this time broke the downtrend line for a bit before going under again, no huge differences there.
This time because the buildup to the ATH took much longer we have some long term support lines closing in. you see the green line in both charts. right now we are just above it at the yellow 4.2 and you can see at 4.1 it already supported the price once. If we get a strong bounce like at 4.1 that would validate again this support is strong. The first time we came close to some long term support in 2014 was half a year later at the red 4.1 which bounced us a couple of times but not as strong as we bounced of the yellow 4.1 this time which gave almost a 50% bounce. in 2013 it was about a 30% bounce. After that it bounced once more before one last capitulation run after which we went sideways for months.
So the question now is, will this long term support hold us up for now as it did in 2014 when we started testing it? I dont know but we will found out soon and go from there.
If it holds that is great and we will break out of the long term downtrend on this linear scale (on log scale not yet, that can happen between 8 and 10k depending on the speed of the price action) It doesnt mean we will never break the green support anymore but it is a good sign if it holds, especially if we bounce strongly. If we stay to close to this support line chances are higher we will break down through it a bit later on in time.
If we do fall through the green support line and close the daily under there it is likely we see more downside (like the red 5) which maybe is the last capitulation run like the last bubble, only then it happened a year after the ATH. If we do that now only 3 months after the ATH that would be great since that might be the end of this downtrend and we can just do some sideways for a while and or start going up slowly again when the market is ready.
Imo the market got more mature and we are not gonna slow bleed for 1 year like we did all of 2014. More money in the industry, more players want to enter, everything is moving faster. How it will look like exactly this time around, i dont know, but it looks like we will get some clues soon from the price action in this area after which we can reevaluate the situation.
Ill check out the log charts later and see if i can get additional info from that chart 2013 vs now, for now, have a nice weekend.
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decent bounce from long term green support line. perfect g20 news timing adding fuel to this bounce need to break out from long term blue downtrend next
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