I believe BTC topped and is entering a bear cycle
Hello friends,
I believe bitcoin has topped and that we are entering the beginning of a bear trend. I am not trading btc to capture this downside instead ETHUSD as I feel it has a better payoff since it is a little more bullish in structure (ie nearer its ATH etc) but that's all bullshit because once this falls so will ETH - so its pseudo strength. Anyways, the trend has absolutely started to change and I believe it will continue.
If I was going to trade this, I would risk 3% here with a stop loss at the all time high (exactly what I am doing with ETH)
Thanks for reading,
Shkreli
Note:
If this is going to be a bad bear market, obviously ETH will fall % wise much more. I'm generally of the opinion, and this has changed as of recently, that it doesn't really make sense to short bitcoin with the aim of capturing profit while bitcoin falls. Instead, I believe taking a bearish position on ETH or ideally a makeshift index of altcoins makes the most sense. On the other hand, I would without a doubt prefer to long bitcoin. Ie, I believe in long only bitcoin, short only alts. ETH is big enough to where I don't believe the risk of it jumping 500% on me is realistic (stop is there anyways - only risking collateral), but it's still a shitcoin. It's essentially made to be shorted.
I do not have any reason to believe this will be some kind of 3 year bear market or anything. I have no idea. Back in 2017 it was more clear that was going to end badly because of how high it went relative to previous high and how fast it got there. Here, we are only up 100% or so and that's not really end of the world stuff. I have no reason to think the low of the bear market of 2018 will be tested or anything like that. tl;dr while I believe the bear market is here, I don't think it will be as bad as 2018 because we simply didn't fly as high relative to 2017
I believe bitcoin has topped and that we are entering the beginning of a bear trend. I am not trading btc to capture this downside instead ETHUSD as I feel it has a better payoff since it is a little more bullish in structure (ie nearer its ATH etc) but that's all bullshit because once this falls so will ETH - so its pseudo strength. Anyways, the trend has absolutely started to change and I believe it will continue.
If I was going to trade this, I would risk 3% here with a stop loss at the all time high (exactly what I am doing with ETH)
Thanks for reading,
Shkreli
Note:
If this is going to be a bad bear market, obviously ETH will fall % wise much more. I'm generally of the opinion, and this has changed as of recently, that it doesn't really make sense to short bitcoin with the aim of capturing profit while bitcoin falls. Instead, I believe taking a bearish position on ETH or ideally a makeshift index of altcoins makes the most sense. On the other hand, I would without a doubt prefer to long bitcoin. Ie, I believe in long only bitcoin, short only alts. ETH is big enough to where I don't believe the risk of it jumping 500% on me is realistic (stop is there anyways - only risking collateral), but it's still a shitcoin. It's essentially made to be shorted.
I do not have any reason to believe this will be some kind of 3 year bear market or anything. I have no idea. Back in 2017 it was more clear that was going to end badly because of how high it went relative to previous high and how fast it got there. Here, we are only up 100% or so and that's not really end of the world stuff. I have no reason to think the low of the bear market of 2018 will be tested or anything like that. tl;dr while I believe the bear market is here, I don't think it will be as bad as 2018 because we simply didn't fly as high relative to 2017
Comment:
I am relatively confident BTC has topped, I will be more confident if we are here or lower in a month.