4xForecaster

Forecast support levels | $BTC $LTC #Bitcoin #Litecoin #Forex

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Friends,


RECAP:

The crypto is at that level again, where media-world fundamental news will pressure it downwards against a real-world interest. The net move will likely lock it into a consolidation move as we had seen before it rallied significantly (see links in reference):

1 - "Hello, Houston, Do You Copy?"
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2 - "Hit Target Dead-On ... Consolidates"
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3 - "Bitcoin Consolidation: Recoiling Before Springing?"
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That consolidation led to a succession of successful hits as it rose steadily to the recent high of 683.23 on June 01st 2014 - See added analysis and forecast hits here:

TARGET DEFINITION:

As of today: Saturday, June 14th 2014, the retail market for Bitcoin remains widely interested. This has allowed the recent dumping of seized bitcoins to be absorbed without much adverse effect to any of the exchanges. For a more detailed background on this, feel free to look at my tweet on the subject here, where I posted a ZeroHedge article on the subject:

""$BTCUSD Target Hit: Recent FBI interference may distort #bitcoin further - @tradingview | #litecoin $BTC $LTC #Forex" "


RECENT DUMP ... WHAT GOOD CAME OF IT:

Some of the traders have asked me why would there be some discrepancies between the exchanges. The best I can tell is that exchanges will retain some differential is their liquidity. A massive dump of any issue within one exchange will likely bring another exchange down with it as well, but with some expected delay, and at a level that will probably highlight a difference in move. This may have to do with the number of retail vs. institutional absorption. But one thing is sure, the very fact that a ripple effect exists across exchanges should be perceived as a good thing, as it would suggest that the behavior shows some normalcy in the inter-market relationship. In other words, bitcoin is acting like a currency/asset within an open, inter-related market where the nooks and crannies function properly. By contrast, had it moved with too much discrepancy might suggest a dubious, inarticulate, disjointed relationship across exchanges.


OVERALL:

At this point, the shorter term might see a significant retracement in price. The FBI announcement suggested a later dump than what just occurred. This may have caused traders to exit their higher positions for lower discounted entries.

The forecast levels I have projected are colored to indicate the probability of being reached, green (TG-1 = 526.23) being the highest, yellow (TG-2 = 462.60) the next lower, and red (TG-Lo = 429.17) the lowest - However, as indicated before, IF and ONCE red is reached, it becomes a HIGH probability reversal level.

A failure of the red (TG-Lo = 429.17) to effect a reversal would highly suggests a directional reversal to the DOWN side, although a consolidation within the pink range (423.29/378.95) will define the last trench war waged against bulls, if it ever got there.

A quick thank for continuing to refer my charts across other websites (as per Google search). Please, feel free to thumb-up this chart and share among TradingView users. The friendly referral and kind support is always appreciated.

Cheers,

David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting


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Twitter: @4xForecaster
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Comments

02 JUL 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:

"$BTCUSD was rebuffed as forecast; expect KoD at this level with 613.03 support looming - via http://www.tradingview.com"



Traders,

As expected and per forecast of the 652/666 bearish entrenchment range overhead, price has posted a second attempt at overcoming this resistance level. What might one expect in such instance of protracted resistance is a geometric formation called a Kiss of Death ("KoD"), which is simply a bearish triple-top formation, whereby a shallow inverted parabola (just completed now) is followed by a deeper inverted parabola, effectively completing a triple top.

While a myriad of other pattern could emerge at this point, or price could also continue to soar, I remain biased towards this KoD possibility, as it offers market-makers the chance to scoop more bitcoins at a discount when price is pushed first at a low, then pushed again at a lower low, as would be the case in fashioning a KoD formation.

But this is all speculative, and quite irrelevant when looking at the predictive/forecasting model, which ignores price, fundamentals and market geometries.

Instead, the predictive model continues to look skywards for the moment. In fact, the recent data would speak against a KoD, as it lit up as bullishly as possible for the time being. This does not exclude the possibility of an interim retracement, however shallow, for the discount strategic reasons defined above.

If and once the model post a reversal or ominous bearish strengthening signal, I would post this as soon as I can. In the mean time, I will continue my roadtrip across the US as planned.

Thank you for your kind readership, friendly referrals to friends and colleagues, and for thumbing-up this and other charts, as it greatly promotes my predictive analyses and forecast, which I will continue to provide free of charge for bitcoin, Forex, indices and select stocks.

Gratefully,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado, USA
+3 Reply
kakola 4xForecaster
>it greatly promotes my predictive analyses and forecast, which I will continue to provide free of charge for bitcoin, Forex, indices and select stocks.
That'y my favorite part!
+1 Reply
@kakola - Much appreciated. A lot of work go into it, and it's purely fueled by passion for financial markets and technical analysis. There is no sales, no gimmick, and no commercial end-point here. I really like what TradingView has done for its trading community, and I decided to join into their effort by doing my volunteering part. Again, thank you for your interest. Feel free to share the analyses and refer to friends - David.
+3 Reply
Melissa 4xForecaster
Enjoy the Roadtrip David and Thank You.
+1 Reply
17 JUN 2014 - Update:

Chart is finally at its upper-most momental channel bound. This could represent a "make or break" moment. For now, any pullback from this level would justify a descent to the support levels. A break above this level at above this momental line dampen any ensuing retracement, as the momental line would act as a former resistance-turned-support structure.



David
+2 Reply
Bitcoin 4xForecaster
Excellent chart. We owe wave 5 and now new investors.. :( Could be a trencher but will pull out.
Reply
TG1 was hit on bitfinex @522
+2 Reply
LastBattle Gambiman
Bitfinex allows leveraging of up to 2.5x of your funds, its not surprising to see it going way below where other exchanges are.
+1 Reply
01 JUL 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:

"$BTCUSD starts battling thru 652/666 bearish entrenchment; expect major resistance @ 666.74 - http://www.tradingview.com"





As per chart, an major overhead resistance had been lurking all along. The predictive/forecasting model had favored an interim retracement, which never materialized. Instead, the bulls kept on mocking any bearish expectation by goring their way through thick and thin resistance.

At this point, expect this overhead resistance zone - defined between 652.26 and 666.74 to impose a significant amount of resisting force against the sky-bound bulls. On a pure technical (i.e.: non-model defined) basis, I would expect a shallow retracement to the prior resistance level @ 613.03, converting that once-resistance level to a now-support level on the back of a bullish outlook.

Predictive/forecasting model has YET to add confirmation of its recent early bullish reversal signal, and this might possibly happen during this expected short retracement, albeit too soon to assume.

I have ghosted the lower targets for now, as a deep surprise retracement is not excluded for this crypto - nonetheless less probable at this point.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
Predictive & Forecasting Analysis
+1 Reply
ChimbOt 4xForecaster
on point, as always
Reply
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