If bitcoin is not > 9300 by the end of march... /some thoughts
Hello friends,
I bring doom and gloom potentially. I am of the opinion that if bitcoin is not above 9300 by the end of this month, then there is an extremely high probability that we will see the $4xxx price range again.
It is a little to early to say, but with recent action, I am more sure of 4000 than 20,000 by a great deal. I see a lot of halving bulls and I think they will be sorely disappointed if things do not change and change relatively quick.
I highly doubt this will be like one of the last times because what has happened simply already hasn't happened before. We haven't ended a bear market this early. We haven't had this much volatility after the end of a bear market. Many characteristics of the market now are different compared to how they have EVER been. So why would I bet on the past to continue, when the past has already changed?
I would not. This does not mean certainty. There is no certainty. If bitcoin goes to 4000, that doesn't make me Nostradamus, or a genius, or even fucking right for that matter. I simply am dealing with uncertainty to the best of my ability.
It is like this. Suppose I develop a model for predicting the next roll of a dice based on wrist flicks. The outcome of a die takes in more than this one input, therefore I am reducing the dimension of the problem and simplifying it. Suppose this model predicts the next roll of a dice to be 6 and lo and behold a 6 appears. This does not make me right at all. I will be right sometimes, and I will be wrong other times. There is no causation here, it cannot be determined with such complex systems as markets.
I write this because it is currently my perspective, and I am simply afraid many, many of you are not prepared for outcomes that go against how you bet. I am not. I am prepared to be wrong all of the time. You should be too. You will be wrong at some point, and if you aren't careful about how you are wrong, you could lose all of your money.
Stay safe, try to not be stupid
-Shkreli
I bring doom and gloom potentially. I am of the opinion that if bitcoin is not above 9300 by the end of this month, then there is an extremely high probability that we will see the $4xxx price range again.
It is a little to early to say, but with recent action, I am more sure of 4000 than 20,000 by a great deal. I see a lot of halving bulls and I think they will be sorely disappointed if things do not change and change relatively quick.
I highly doubt this will be like one of the last times because what has happened simply already hasn't happened before. We haven't ended a bear market this early. We haven't had this much volatility after the end of a bear market. Many characteristics of the market now are different compared to how they have EVER been. So why would I bet on the past to continue, when the past has already changed?
I would not. This does not mean certainty. There is no certainty. If bitcoin goes to 4000, that doesn't make me Nostradamus, or a genius, or even fucking right for that matter. I simply am dealing with uncertainty to the best of my ability.
It is like this. Suppose I develop a model for predicting the next roll of a dice based on wrist flicks. The outcome of a die takes in more than this one input, therefore I am reducing the dimension of the problem and simplifying it. Suppose this model predicts the next roll of a dice to be 6 and lo and behold a 6 appears. This does not make me right at all. I will be right sometimes, and I will be wrong other times. There is no causation here, it cannot be determined with such complex systems as markets.
I write this because it is currently my perspective, and I am simply afraid many, many of you are not prepared for outcomes that go against how you bet. I am not. I am prepared to be wrong all of the time. You should be too. You will be wrong at some point, and if you aren't careful about how you are wrong, you could lose all of your money.
Stay safe, try to not be stupid
-Shkreli